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Nippy Novie


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Actually appears 7 of the next 10 days will provide opportunities for snowmaking

 

Yeah there will be windows most days.  Far cry from recent Novembers when it was like 24/7 snowmaking from like November 10th onward, lol.  Remember November 2013 with a low of -6F?  This is Mother Nature loving her averages. 

 

The goal at this point is just getting one day this month to average below normal.  So far we are 20 for 20 above normal.

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Euro ens are straight zonal from day 12-16, now thats HB's boring, but before that its pretty interesting and we are set up for something more interesting. The period outlined end of the month beginning of Dec is to be watched for sure. Also the take from the very LR Ens is perhaps a PV split. something else to watch as the end of Dec could very well mark the start of what likely will be a fun period to be a weather enthusiast. Seems to be evolving as most LR forecasters  thought, good job by them.

Psst....they end at d15. But yes. Some glimmer of hope at the end and a decent cold shot with a chance of snow in the first few days post tday weekend.

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Yeah there will be windows most days.  Far cry from recent Novembers when it was like 24/7 snowmaking from like November 10th onward, lol.  Remember November 2013 with a low of -6F?  This is Mother Nature loving her averages. 

 

The goal at this point is just getting one day this month to average below normal.  So far we are 20 for 20 above normal.

Hmm I thought your goal was precip, you said AN doesn't matter. but yea warm month 17/20 AN but of course haven't had 2 snowstorms like you either

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Heh, I don't think the 12z Euro operational run warrants the grousing that's implicit in the tone here...

 

It's hard to derive sentiment via just words, but you gain an inkling by observing word choice/cadence in delivery.  Not ideal, no... and fraught with opportunity to miss-interpret.  But in this case there's a palpable dissatisfaction, nonetheless. 

 

Anyway, I think the Euro operational actually took an incremental step toward more of a +PNAP look D6 to 10.  That ridge transiently rolling through the Canadian Rockies .. albeit largely fictitious in any details, may just conceptually/at least be a nod in the direction of this:

 

post-904-0-21966300-1448142816_thumb.jpg

 

The positive PNA above has been very consistent in the GEFs ensembles... also showing positive mode evolving toward D7-10 at CPC, with only a little spread in the members too.  

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Hmm I thought your goal was precip, you said AN doesn't matter. but yea warm month 17/20 AN but of course haven't had 2 snowstorms like you either

 

It doesn't really bother me except for snowmaking... just stating how different from past Novembers this has been.

 

And 2 snowstorms?  I'm at 1.7" on the season.

 

Also as far as precip...we're running 50% of normal this month, so really nothing happening on that front either, lol.

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haha...well played bump in ur rump.

So what about the pattern is good for Miller A? Serious question to get some good discussion about this.

a ridge trough ridge orientation with energy diving into the GOM with an East Coast conduit inplace due to a WAR. The EPO dump of cold also dumps energy which can induce cyclogenisis. We also may have a semi phase change event with a development of a high amplitude pos NAO. We have in the past had some very strong Miller As just prior. Just an observation for now.
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a ridge trough ridge orientation with energy diving into the GOM with an East Coast conduit inplace due to a WAR. The EPO dump of cold also dumps energy which can induce cyclogenisis. We also may have a semi phase change event with a development of a high amplitude pos NAO. We have in the past had some very strong Miller As just prior. Just an observation for now.

Well the fantasy model runs have been showing them...coastal storms that almost track like tropical storms as I think the GFS had one tracking oddly NW yesterday from like east of Florida up to the mid-Atlantic like a captured tropical storm. Some funky and entertaining long range model runs lately.

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Euro came pretty far west for tomorrow evening-overnight -- close to 1" QPF in Boston and parts of the cape over 1.5". 1/2" line goes from New London to the NE corner of CT to the NH coastline. Definitely would support flakes in Eastern MA and actually gets flakes(likely just flurries until you get to PWM ish and east) into a good part of NH and pretty much all of ME as well now, too warm for Eastport now but parts of interior SE Maine probably score warning criteria on that.

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Euro came pretty far west for tomorrow evening-overnight -- close to 1" QPF in Boston and parts of the cape over 1.5". 1/2" line goes from New London to the NE corner of CT to the NH coastline. Definitely would support flakes in Eastern MA and actually gets flakes(likely just flurries until you get to PWM ish and east) into a good part of NH and pretty much all of ME as well now, too warm for Eastport now but parts of interior SE Maine probably score warning criteria on that.

hrmm

post-3-0-30477500-1448194440_thumb.png

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