powderfreak Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Actually appears 7 of the next 10 days will provide opportunities for snowmaking Yeah there will be windows most days. Far cry from recent Novembers when it was like 24/7 snowmaking from like November 10th onward, lol. Remember November 2013 with a low of -6F? This is Mother Nature loving her averages. The goal at this point is just getting one day this month to average below normal. So far we are 20 for 20 above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Euro ens are straight zonal from day 12-16, now thats HB's boring, but before that its pretty interesting and we are set up for something more interesting. The period outlined end of the month beginning of Dec is to be watched for sure. Also the take from the very LR Ens is perhaps a PV split. something else to watch as the end of Dec could very well mark the start of what likely will be a fun period to be a weather enthusiast. Seems to be evolving as most LR forecasters thought, good job by them. Psst....they end at d15. But yes. Some glimmer of hope at the end and a decent cold shot with a chance of snow in the first few days post tday weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Psst....they end at d15. But yes. Some glimmer of hope at the end and a decent cold shot with a chance of snow in the first few days post tday weekend. Typo, shoot me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Yeah there will be windows most days. Far cry from recent Novembers when it was like 24/7 snowmaking from like November 10th onward, lol. Remember November 2013 with a low of -6F? This is Mother Nature loving her averages. The goal at this point is just getting one day this month to average below normal. So far we are 20 for 20 above normal. Hmm I thought your goal was precip, you said AN doesn't matter. but yea warm month 17/20 AN but of course haven't had 2 snowstorms like you either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Heh, I don't think the 12z Euro operational run warrants the grousing that's implicit in the tone here... It's hard to derive sentiment via just words, but you gain an inkling by observing word choice/cadence in delivery. Not ideal, no... and fraught with opportunity to miss-interpret. But in this case there's a palpable dissatisfaction, nonetheless. Anyway, I think the Euro operational actually took an incremental step toward more of a +PNAP look D6 to 10. That ridge transiently rolling through the Canadian Rockies .. albeit largely fictitious in any details, may just conceptually/at least be a nod in the direction of this: The positive PNA above has been very consistent in the GEFs ensembles... also showing positive mode evolving toward D7-10 at CPC, with only a little spread in the members too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 congrats Bobalouie and Paul Butterfiled Blues Band on the 18Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Actually throws a catpaw back my way, cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Hmm I thought your goal was precip, you said AN doesn't matter. but yea warm month 17/20 AN but of course haven't had 2 snowstorms like you either It doesn't really bother me except for snowmaking... just stating how different from past Novembers this has been. And 2 snowstorms? I'm at 1.7" on the season. Also as far as precip...we're running 50% of normal this month, so really nothing happening on that front either, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 It doesn't really bother me except for snowmaking... just stating how different from past Novembers this has been. And 2 snowstorms? I'm at 1.7" on the season. Guess I thought I was thinking of where you spend most of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 GFS says Fri Sat are the 2 torch days of the long weekend, upper 40s late in the day Thursday after a chilly start then upper 50's Fri /Sat then a Cf passage Sat night with rain and snow showers to a chilly Sunday. Revisited on Monday for the Turkeys in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Wow, that was one entertaining GFS run... It's got a yard stick, blue bomb to kick off the Met winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Pattern is setting up for a Miller Astill think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 still think soThinking hasn't changed since 9am this morning?Haha bump bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Thinking hasn't changed since 9am this morning? Haha bump bump no after reviewing 12z Ens appears a shot, duly noted, bump in ur rump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 12-20 in the GL is freaking awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 no after reviewing 12z Ens appears a shot, duly noted, bump in ur rump haha...well played bump in ur rump. So what about the pattern is good for Miller A? Serious question to get some good discussion about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Move 60 miles east and l-l-l-l-l-l-l-lock it! No No NO I said move it to 60 miles East, not 260 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 haha...well played bump in ur rump. So what about the pattern is good for Miller A? Serious question to get some good discussion about this. a ridge trough ridge orientation with energy diving into the GOM with an East Coast conduit inplace due to a WAR. The EPO dump of cold also dumps energy which can induce cyclogenisis. We also may have a semi phase change event with a development of a high amplitude pos NAO. We have in the past had some very strong Miller As just prior. Just an observation for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 RGEM and GFS argue for some flakes over SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 a ridge trough ridge orientation with energy diving into the GOM with an East Coast conduit inplace due to a WAR. The EPO dump of cold also dumps energy which can induce cyclogenisis. We also may have a semi phase change event with a development of a high amplitude pos NAO. We have in the past had some very strong Miller As just prior. Just an observation for now. Well the fantasy model runs have been showing them...coastal storms that almost track like tropical storms as I think the GFS had one tracking oddly NW yesterday from like east of Florida up to the mid-Atlantic like a captured tropical storm. Some funky and entertaining long range model runs lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 RGEM and GFS argue for some flakes over SE MA. Almost looks colder at 925mb than 850mb. Good cold air press as the low moves past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 RGEM and GFS argue for some flakes over SE MA.congrats James Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Gfs actually has flakes from me East, catpaw city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Gfs actually has flakes from me East, catpaw city You can picture the p-type radar showing a band of green that slowly starts getting eaten away by blue pixels from the west, ending with like a 3-county wide zone of -SN moving east as it tapers off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 You can picture the p-type radar showing a band of green that slowly starts getting eaten away by blue pixels from the west, ending with like a 3-county wide zone of -SN moving east as it tapers off. yea seems like a cold rain ending as a burst of snow deal. But congrats Eastport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 yea seems like a cold rain ending as a burst of snow deal. But congrats Eastport Hey enjoy any flakes in this pattern, even cat paws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Euro came pretty far west for tomorrow evening-overnight -- close to 1" QPF in Boston and parts of the cape over 1.5". 1/2" line goes from New London to the NE corner of CT to the NH coastline. Definitely would support flakes in Eastern MA and actually gets flakes(likely just flurries until you get to PWM ish and east) into a good part of NH and pretty much all of ME as well now, too warm for Eastport now but parts of interior SE Maine probably score warning criteria on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Euro came pretty far west for tomorrow evening-overnight -- close to 1" QPF in Boston and parts of the cape over 1.5". 1/2" line goes from New London to the NE corner of CT to the NH coastline. Definitely would support flakes in Eastern MA and actually gets flakes(likely just flurries until you get to PWM ish and east) into a good part of NH and pretty much all of ME as well now, too warm for Eastport now but parts of interior SE Maine probably score warning criteria on that.hrmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 hrmm image.png yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 Massive cutter on the Euro days 9-10 in what was a chance at our first snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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