WinterWolf Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Obvious Euro bias of holding to much back in the southwest. But like you said, not to sure the 18Z GFS is totally correct either. At least we have a lil something to discuss for a lil while right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2015 Author Share Posted November 21, 2015 What time do the squalls hit on Sunday? Want to make sure we are off the roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Obvious Euro bias of holding to much back in the southwest. But like you said, not to sure the 18Z GFS is totally correct either. At least we have a lil something to discuss for a lil while right.shh any discussion automatically is a forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 What time do the squalls hit on Sunday? Want to make sure we are off the roadswouldn't be surprised if squalls happen late Mon with secondary vort max in areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 shh any discussion automatically is a forecast Ok lol!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 I feel like the euro "holding back energy in the SW" has become weenie gospel. It had a bias with that over a decade ago, but the model has had many changes over the years. If someone can link to me to a recent study showing it has more of a bias with this issue still versus other models I would be happy to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 I feel like the euro "holding back energy in the SW" has become weenie gospel. It had a bias with that over a decade ago, but the model has had many changes over the years. If someone can link to me to a recent study showing it has more of a bias with this issue still versus other models I would be happy to see it.dont know when this was written but have seen many an AFD mention the bias and we had a couple of real time occurrences in Feb last yearhttps://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~m415mgr/FALL12/Model%2520Bias.ppt&ved=0ahUKEwjmpvrSzKDJAhVBJB4KHYtcAJEQFggdMAA&usg=AFQjCNHC0oVyd2UXEKZKDKPNP7g5MrDn6g&sig2=sgpIrMu-ozByRHGRXAe1_g Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 I feel like the euro "holding back energy in the SW" has become weenie gospel. It had a bias with that over a decade ago, but the model has had many changes over the years. If someone can link to me to a recent study showing it has more of a bias with this issue still versus other models I would be happy to see it. I just think it's cutoff happy, in general, which would intuitively lead it to show more energy hanging back in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 I just think it's cutoff happy, in general, which would intuitively lead it to show more energy hanging back in the SW. Exactly. You look at the runs, and you can clearly see it correct itself 36-48 hours later and bring more trough/energy out east more times than not. Just like with anything regarding the atmosphere, it's not a foolproof idea, but the model does seem to do this quite often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 dont know when this was written but have seen many an AFD mention the bias and we had a couple of real time occurrences in Feb last yearhttps://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~m415mgr/FALL12/Model%20Bias.ppt&ved=0ahUKEwjmpvrSzKDJAhVBJB4KHYtcAJEQFggdMAA&usg=AFQjCNHC0oVyd2UXEKZKDKPNP7g5MrDn6g&sig2=sgpIrMu-ozByRHGRXAe1_g Pretty sure that's a decade oldI just think it's cutoff happy, in general, which would intuitively lead it to show more energy hanging back in the SW.It does tend to seem that way at times, but I'm always wary of empirical evidence. We had a few cases the last couple of years where members tried to use the "held back energy" reasoning and the Euro was actually right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Seems like there's a window 11/29-12/5. After that we sulk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Yeah, tonight's runs are definitely more encouraging for something during the first week of December. Lots of variables obviously but there does seem to be a small window. Would be sweet to cash in even if rest of Dec ends up sucking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 A better 11-15 day on the EPS, although still not the prettiest. I think we will deal with these small ebb and flows until the pattern really changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Pattern is setting up for a Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Close the blinds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Pattern is setting up for a Miller A The magical Dec 5 date keeps on popping up on the models. It's good to see the models showing something interesting to start December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 When? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Kevin should have probably stuck with his typhoon recurve thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Move 60 miles east and l-l-l-l-l-l-l-lock it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 A better 11-15 day on the EPS, although still not the prettiest. I think we will deal with these small ebb and flows until the pattern really changes. Yeah showing a bit of an EPO reload at the end....not nearly as awful as the last couple of EC ens runs. Low deepening near Kamchatka and if that can move a bit SE closer to Aleutians, then we may have something for December. Even if it's only temporary. But the flow doesn't look that bad at the end...it's got split flow out west with some Yukon/AK ridging, so it wouldn't be a complete firehose torch. Some cold trying sneak over the top of Hudson down into E Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ch3nna Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Hey if i get 4 inches this December its still better than last year. But the plowing money would be nice for extra x-mas money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Yeah showing a bit of an EPO reload at the end....not nearly as awful as the last couple of EC ens runs. Low deepening near Kamchatka and if that can move a bit SE closer to Aleutians, then we may have something for December. Even if it's only temporary. But the flow doesn't look that bad at the end...it's got split flow out west with some Yukon/AK ridging, so it wouldn't be a complete firehose torch. Some cold trying sneak over the top of Hudson down into E Canada. Static so called one eyed pigs cutoff will probably not be an issue this year. The thought all along has been for rapid oscillations in flow with LR ENS models having issues handling the extreme dynamics at play. Fun to watch a b**ch to figure out. The flip in the Operational 12Z and 0Z are even more dramatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Kevin should have probably stuck with his typhoon recurve thought That is most likely what is causing all of the models to flip flop. Even JB said in his video yesterday that the models should get a handle of it once the typhoon does recurve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Static so called one eyed pigs cutoff will probably not be an issue this year. The thought all along has been for rapid oscillations in flow with LR ENS models having issues handling the extreme dynamics at play. Fun to watch a b**ch to figure out. The flip in the Operational 12Z and 0Z are even more dramatic. We'll have to watch any EPO ridging as we get closer. This current one for early next week trended flatter in the final few days which is why the arctic outbreak is less intense than previously modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 I feel like the euro "holding back energy in the SW" has become weenie gospel. It had a bias with that over a decade ago, but the model has had many changes over the years. If someone can link to me to a recent study showing it has more of a bias with this issue still versus other models I would be happy to see it. Tend to agree here ... to a limit. Not with the 'weenie' expression; I hate the term and always have. Not sure if anyone's noticed but I have perhaps never even in jest 'bunned' anyone or called them a weenie... Not meaning to lecture you Bri', this is my Sat rant over a cup of disgruntled joe But in general, there are 'gospels' (now that term for 'perceptive bias' vs education, I like) that seem to become over-reliant ... almost like long standing memes in the collective mind of the masses. The other is the NAO ... A couple of noted Dr. and media personnel popularized the NAO in the mega winters of the 1990s; I know, I lived the era as a Met student. And ever since then that NAO keeps churning out of the public like a Chatty Kathy Doll - whenever anything out of the ordinary is going on, pull the 'why' string and it's 'blah blah blah NAO blah blah NAO blah blah blah NAO' ... Anywho ... like all religions, they are founded upon false deities substantiated with no proof, cloaked in a thick shroud of all's well if one maintains faith. So too are the pages of the Atmospheric Bible written upon. One such false deity in the pages of the beloved gospel is that -NAO is good thing. WRONG. Most Mets worth a salt will tell you that a rising or falling NAO is good thing for those seeking winter weather, and that a static domain space is usually ...very bad. This is no mystery.. Folks that are new or perhaps forgetful should really read Heather Archembault's statistical science on two basic albeit hugely important atmospheric teleconnectors - in fact, it should be required reading prior to the wannabe-member, where they than have to take a small test before getting their membership approved... She clearly outlines in no uncertain terms that a rising PNA is correlated to enhanced precipitation events over eastern North America. Likewise, to some lesser degree (and it is LESS correlated in the numbers mind you..) the NAO rising after having been negative. That latter point is key ... we can logically infer that a negative NAO is good, but only in so far as the implication that it will at some point have to alter, by either rising or falling more - but the impetus there is on changing the character of the domain, not maintaining a negative NAO. In fact, the more I experience prognostic usage vs verification over the years, I've come to even underscore my resentment of the -NAO gospel even that much more ... because I have found on too many equations that blips in the domain space are just as indicative of disturbance translations as the relay from middle latitudes of N/A out of the N Atlantic Basin and/or the Maritimes. Back to Brian's point. Ezekiel's southwest stranded heights is a story from the old testament.. Having said that, I do believe, however, that (just as all models have some sort of bias or another) even the eerily accurate ECMWF has a boner about drilling heights over eastern N/A beyond D4. Sometimes more than others this will be notable passing an outlook from beyond that lead-time boundary into near terms; but I don't really ever recall the Euro being too flat and than having to get more amplified to catch-up with reality/other guidance. In other words the model's bias is to at times see too much amplitude on D6, but never has a problem seeing enough, if that makes any sense. But none of that has anything to do with that old mantra about S/W digging and hold back heights. Not sure they are biases coming from the same physical origin. Note on the present, this is the third consecutive day in continuity where the GEFs derived EPO and PNA are showing a fairly classic cold load, relay scenario for the middle through extended. I'm curious what the Euro cluster's thoughts are... But the EPO tanks to -1 or -1.5 SD over the next 4 to 5 days, over which time the PNA starts to stress in the numbers and thoughtfully begins to rise as a result... Then, out around D9 'ish, the EPO's maxed its negative departure, and the PNA takes over and rockets to almost +3 SD! That's basically grabbing polar/arctic cold, and tossing an ally ' oop, then having your 6'11" center PNA slam dunking it S. This what took place often over the last two winters. The operational GFS does relflect this reasonably well, but seems to maintain unusually small large scale wave-spacing, so the cold is inhibited from getting E.. .interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Ha, nice lookin' 500 mb series of events on the 12z operational GasmFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Hmm. Euro is kind of interesting tomorrow night. Maybe flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Hmm. Euro is kind of interesting tomorrow night. Maybe flakes? Damned close to a mini snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 GFS has some moisture too, but it's anafrontal and too warm. I'd rather have it from the actual low moving up near Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Damned close to a mini snow bomb. Yeah wow -- half a degree colder at 850 and that could be interesting. Doubtful, but worth keeping a corner of an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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