ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Am I incorrect in interpreting the '02-'03 and '97-'98 el nino winters as occurring during westerly QBO? No, though both were rapidly weakening heading into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 No, though both were rapidly weakening heading into winter. Gotcha. I'll leave them out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Your problem with interpretation of uncertainty doesn't need to be projected back onto mets here...that is your own shortcoming. Learn to understand model uncertainty and ensemble spread and also learn to read when mets here talk about them rather than just glossing over it and seeing the words "colder pattern" and assuming that is an ironclad forecast...or in your words "promised cold". Great post!! And SPOT ON with the diagnosis!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Great post!! And SPOT ON with the diagnosis!! Very, very hurtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Rough day for the rev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Very, very hurtful.Good grief.. That's all gobblygook! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 People start acting really weird on here when the pattern is not wintry in cold season. Didn't have any of this BS last winter once the wx turned. I used to wish cast, but I've been around long enough to know when a pattern looks above normal and not snowy. For a very extended period I might add. Perhaps you guys get lucky on Monday with some snow. I'll be pulling for you USED to? hahahahahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 USED to? hahahahahahahaWell I'm one of the few on here going for a basic ratter save for a few weeks in Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Very, very hurtful. Perhaps. But it's the truth. Will was spot on. We all would love some winter love at this point, I get that! But the not so great December was put out there a long while now. At the same time, it doesn't necessarily mean there won't be a well timed set up either. Ginxy and others explained the possibilities, and it was easily understood. Nothing guaranteed, just some reasonable possibilities were mentioned. If he just stopped lying and twisting people's and Mets ideas on the long range, and taking 11-15 day model runs to heart, things would be fine. Nothing against the guy, just tired of the flip, flopping, lying and twisting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 A lot of people on here that are very knowledgeable, don't seem to feel this will be a ratter. If it turns out to be a ratter, I will be the first one to give those credit for calling it way back when they did. Maybe it will be?? But Last December and almost all of January was pretty bad, and I was thinking we had a ratter on our hands back then. How quickly that changed. Doesn't mean that will happen again at all. But we all know that this season may be back end weighted. So I guess we will have to be patient.. Which I know myself can be difficult and frustrating at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 USED to? hahahahahahaha Bahahahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 USED to? hahahahahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 18z GFS threads the needle Thanksgiving Weekend (well, Sunday into Monday)...overrunning pops a low along the front. Ginxy gets his 0.7" of Novie snow in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 18z GFS threads the needle Thanksgiving Weekend (well, Sunday into Monday)...overrunning pops a low along the front. Ginxy gets his 0.7" of Novie snow in the end. That's the low probability threat for that 11/30-12/1 timeframe. If a wave can develop along the frontal boundary and shove moisture back into the cold. The EC ensembles still hint at it too...but it is definitely a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 That's the low probability threat for that 11/30-12/1 timeframe. If a wave can develop along the frontal boundary and shove moisture back into the cold. The EC ensembles still hint at it too...but it is definitely a long shot. Its already been "promised" just by me posting about the 18z GFS. Pretty soon it'll be "what happened to that snowstorm the models had for November 30th" when in reality it was one 18z GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 18z GFS threads the needle Thanksgiving Weekend (well, Sunday into Monday)...overrunning pops a low along the front. Ginxy gets his 0.7" of Novie snow in the end. gfs_6hr_snow_acc_neng_41.png That would be a gas if that happened...it is the 18z GFS after all. It'd be a blast if that did happen though. Hey, I guess there's always a chance, even if it's very small. It'll be gone at 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Congrats Eastport.On their way to another 184" winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2015 Author Share Posted November 21, 2015 7" congrats me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2015 Author Share Posted November 21, 2015 Good grief.. That's all gobblygook! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2015 Author Share Posted November 21, 2015 Perhaps. But it's the truth. Will was spot on. We all would love some winter love at this point, I get that! But the not so great December was put out there a long while now. At the same time, it doesn't necessarily mean there won't be a well timed set up either. Ginxy and others explained the possibilities, and it was easily understood. Nothing guaranteed, just some reasonable possibilities were mentioned. If he just stopped lying and twisting people's and Mets ideas on the long range, and taking 11-15 day model runs to heart, things would be fine. Nothing against the guy, just tired of the flip, flopping, lying and twisting!He needs a stern talking to!He is going to make everyone into a nervous Nelly!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Its already been "promised" just by me posting about the 18z GFS. Pretty soon it'll be "what happened to that snowstorm the models had for November 30th" when in reality it was one 18z GFS run.this is it to a tee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 this is it to a tee "Remember when mets were all predicting a snowstorm for 11/30-12/1? The snow they promised never panned out." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 You post it.. You own it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 You post it.. You own itNoted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 You post it.. You own ityes we remember very well the 75-80 Tday post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 yes we remember very well the 75-80 Tday postAnd your low level cold and low 40's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 And your low level cold and low 40'sas depicted by models whereas you tweeted roasted Turkeys 75-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 as depicted by models whereas you tweeted roasted Turkeys 75-80What time do the squalls hit on Sunday? Want to make sure we are off the roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Cat fight going on here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 18Z GFS found the thread the needle scenario with the pressing cold frontal wave ana frontal type snowfall. Not necessarily buying it but I have a hard time buying a Euro op scenario where the trough seemingly gets hung up forever out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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