Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 yeah suspect it's digging a bit much out there initially. it has cut-offs everywhere...sub-tropical Atlantic, Rockies, and another south of the GOA lowHow much of a torch for holiday weekend? Still 60+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 like the Kara sea ridge, maybe we finally break the Grinchs balls. Too late to change my eight week forecasts but watching that period for sure now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 those 2ndary S/Ws typically face too many challenges. for one, whatever baroclinicity is usually evacuated too far east, and unless there's upper tier mechanical power to foist everything NW the following impulse ends up running up over a dearth of RH. the impulse its self is running through the GOA on the 12z grids. it'll relay in overnight tonight. Novie and Dec's can be tricky with the far west Atlantic retaining still relatively warm temperatures. Things can manufacture/modulate more locally with speed as CAA initially passes off shore, so if said relay were to come in mechanically capable of veering the flow aloft around 70 W ... could provide for a sort of 'just in timer' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Burbank FTW but 24 hours early? I am still thinking it is too far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Kara Sea ridging not doing it for ya?actually one of the more stable features across LR guidance too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 actually one of the more stable features across LR guidance too That does actually bode well if one is rooting for the SAI/blocking connection down the line in Jan/Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 euro ens definitely headed in the wrong direction lol. has gotten progressively uglier last several runs. windows down...sleeves up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 euro ens definitely headed in the wrong direction lol. has gotten progressively uglier last several runs. windows down...sleeves up. Happy holidays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Based on today's guidance..I'd go (for BDL/BOS) T-giving mid-upper 50's Fri/Sat 60-65,,possibly a few upper 60's if we get enough mixing..means cutting the tree down in freaking shorts Sun near 60 depending on timing of weak front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 euro ens definitely headed in the wrong direction lol. has gotten progressively uglier last several runs. windows down...sleeves up. We bloom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 That 11-15 on euro ensembles is going Dec 1994/2006/2011 on us. Hopefully we see an EPO reload at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 We bloom. and wait...this could take a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Hmmm..interesting to see 2011 suddenly show up there. I think a few people had mentioned that year earlier in the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 18z NAM is much further west with the precip shield. about .5-.75" of QPF over my parent's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 The +QBO niño progression looks fairly good right now, going to be a lot of tight sphincters in the east until January.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 18z NAM is much further west with the precip shield. about .5-.75" of QPF over my parent's house. Do they live over the Gulf Stream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 wondering if the GEFs were too static with this alledged -EPO..? seems the there's a consensus creep toward more of a transient ridge there that collapses about as fast as it triggers any cold loading into the continent. Even the GFS operational is now showing a bit more of a dislodging ridge. And no longer carries the eye-pop hammer cold wave. There is a strong typhoon slated to recurve ... Don't know what model performance is specifically where it has to do with the interface between the tropics and extratropical regions, and at what time "when" a flux rears an influence in the model runs. I don't think that is seamless - seems in the past your going along and then all the sudden... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Do they live over the Gulf Stream? no they do not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Long winter begins Met wise Dec 1st, SNE wise Mid Dec for some end of Dec for others. Look forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 The NAM is interesting as cold air arrives just in time, or is just late before the heavy precip moves through. If the timing works I'm going to miss something more than a simple few flakes. I hope I don't miss accumulating snows. Unlikely, but given the NAM precip its possible for wet bulbing and dynamical cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Based on today's guidance..I'd go (for BDL/BOS) T-giving mid-upper 50's Fri/Sat 60-65,,possibly a few upper 60's if we get enough mixing..means cutting the tree down in freaking shorts Sun near 60 depending on timing of weak front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Hmmm..interesting to see 2011 suddenly show up there. I think a few people had mentioned that year earlier in the week Lets not forget context...you mentioned it as in we are going to see nothing but day 10 cold shots that never verify like 2011-2012...nobody else has said anything of the sort. Even garbage El Nino Decembers like 1957, 1965, 2006, and 1994 eventually gave way to very cold periods later in the winter. I'd advise not getting caught up in hyperbole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Lets not forget context...you mentioned it as in we are going to see nothing but day 10 cold shots that never verify like 2011-2012...nobody else has said anything of the sort. Even garbage El Nino Decembers like 1957, 1965, 2006, and 1994 eventually gave way to very cold periods later in the winter. I'd advise not getting caught up in hyperbole. Which I do think happens in late Jan and part of Feb. My point was that these cold shots that were modeled the next 10 days have either backed off or vanished completely . Originally was supposed to be Sunday- Wed and them just normal for the holiday weekend. That was modeled . My fear was we would see the same thing that happened then and we kind of have with the shorter and less stout cold next week and the one late holiday weekend totally is gone. And now the one eyed pig is showing up in long range over Alaska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Which I do think happens in late Jan and part of Feb. My point was that these cold shots that were modeled the next 10 days have either backed off or vanished completely . Originally was supposed to be Sunday- Wed and them just normal for the holiday weekend. That was modeled . My fear was we would see the same thing that happened then and we kind of have with the shorter and less stout cold next week and the one late holiday weekend totally is gone. And now the one eyed pig is showing up in long range over Alaska The one eyed pig will retrograde.....I said last week that what was transpiring reminded me of 2006, and this is why. It will retrograde, just like it did that season........and we were unlucky that year because that back end pattern was very good. We will get more should we see a repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Take a look at 12/06....same thing. There is a reason why I included it in my analog composite. The stratosphere is starting so hostile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Fearing a warm Turkey day turns into absolute horror Christmas day, DIT sitting alone amidst the dried up needles just chugging Guinness slamming down Jager Bombs one after another silently voicing :As I thought, As I thought, As I Fuking Thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Which I do think happens in late Jan and part of Feb. My point was that these cold shots that were modeled the next 10 days have either backed off or vanished completely . Originally was supposed to be Sunday- Wed and them just normal for the holiday weekend. That was modeled . My fear was we would see the same thing that happened then and we kind of have with the shorter and less stout cold next week and the one late holiday weekend totally is gone. And now the one eyed pig is showing up in long range over Alaska Don't believe 10 day cold shots...not sure what else to tell you if you start believing them or expressing disappointment when they don't pan out. Maybe get a new hobby, or stick to the obs threads. We're getting a cold shot early next week that has been modeled pretty well...the one after T-day has been all over the map, so there's really never been a reason to expect anything out of that given the model volatility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Don't believe 10 day cold shots...not sure what else to tell you if you start believing them or expressing disappointment when they don't pan out. Maybe get a new hobby, or stick to the obs threads. We're getting a cold shot early next week that has been modeled pretty well...the one after T-day has been all over the map, so there's really never been a reason to expect anything out of that given the model volatility. Ill stick to all the threads and plan on spending more time in NYC threads as well. Nice to spread the wealth. The mets here advertised the cold after the holiday as real. Unfortunately it's not going to happen and life goes on and new homes in low elevations are still going to be purchased Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Ill stick to all the threads and plan on spending more time in NYC threads as well. Nice to spread the wealth. The mets here advertised the cold after the holiday as real. Unfortunately it's not going to happen and life goes on and new homes in low elevations are still going to be purchased Your problem with interpretation of uncertainty doesn't need to be projected back onto mets here...that is your own shortcoming. Learn to understand model uncertainty and ensemble spread and also learn to read when mets here talk about them rather than just glossing over it and seeing the words "colder pattern" and assuming that is an ironclad forecast...or in your words "promised cold". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Am I incorrect in interpreting the '02-'03 and '97-'98 el nino winters as occurring during westerly QBO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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