40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 lol, its a win-win. December is warm with low snow, good news for the outlooks. December gets some good snow events going, but still warm, that's just the holy grail right there. Win for the outlooks and the snow weenies. On a purely provisional basis, I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 This is what I have for climod at N Foster: I was talking about climo normals, here are the normals and the breakdown of Dec 1- Dec 15 and Dec 15th to Dec 31st, as you can see we can and have had some great storms in early Dec, no one questions about that but the overwhelming time to really expect snow is after mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 That first half of the month definitely has a high variance. December, especially near the coast certainly is a product of some good extremes either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 That first half of the month definitely has a high variance. December, especially near the coast certainly is a product of some good extremes either way. Makes sense...December features some slow moving dumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Anyone know if Fork issued any official winter outlook with specific numbers? It would make me sick to my stomach if we had the same ideas. So much so I might have to adjust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Makes sense...December features some slow moving dumps. I am strictly speaking for my area, but while some expect some good snows in December...I am perfectly fine (well to a point..lol) of having December fall below my average for snow. It still has a bit of a feast or famine aspect to it, here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Anyone know if Fork issued any official winter outlook with specific numbers? It would make me sick to my stomach if we had the same ideas. So much so I might have to adjust You would think, as a pro, he would recognize this forum for the invaluable networking medium that it is, as opposed to posting nothing but garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I was talking about climo normals, here are the normals and the breakdown of Dec 1- Dec 15 and Dec 15th to Dec 31st, as you can see we can and have had some great storms in early Dec, no one questions about that but the overwhelming time to really expect snow is after mid month chart (1).jpeg chart (4).jpeg chart (3).jpeg Ahhh...1981-2010 normal. That makes more sense now. Longterm the higher December (vs Feb) doesn't hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 That first half of the month definitely has a high variance. December, especially near the coast certainly is a product of some good extremes either way. There is such great data to glean, preferred periods like the first week of Dec the last week of Dec over the years stick out when you parse the data. I know there is controversy about this but there is definitely a very odd 2-3 day period around Christmas that has a bump in temps in a lot of the Climod spots, its a small bump but it exists. Weird how data shakes out sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Ahhh...1981-2010 normal. That makes more sense now. Longterm the higher December (vs Feb) doesn't hold. thats 11.7 versus 14.7, nice bump up with the 52 last year in a data base that only goes back 30 years now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I am strictly speaking for my area, but while some expect some good snows in December...I am perfectly fine (well to a point..lol) of having December fall below my average for snow. It still has a bit of a feast or famine aspect to it, here. I'm really curious what shakes out up here in December. Like J.Spin said, November is only 7% of snowfall so say we get out of the month with only 2-4", that's like 25-33% or normal, easy to make up. Though if December follows a similar path, we've got some work to do like '06-'07 style. For you guys it may not matter much, but a rough December does create a decent hole to get out of up here. The back-loaded winters are interesting...if they are on steroids like '06-07 we can make it up and then more. If its just a fun winter period but nothing excessive, it can struggle to make up for the first part of winter. We just need a 110" December on the mountain like '07 that can put us ahead for the winter and roll with that, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 except 75% of the Dec total average occurs from Dec 15th on And there in is the point that should be kept in mind. It takes time for things to evolve in most cases. Last December had nothing...but mild days. Xmas was 56 degrees last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 thats 11.7 versus 14.3, nice bump up with the 52 last year in a data base that only goes back 30 years now I still think the 14.3 in December on '81-'10 is inconsistent with their actual obs. Actual obs would be closer to 13" or a bit lower. But '81-'10 would definitely have a higher December and a lower February because the mid to late 1970s had crappy Decembers and great Februarys and so has 2010-current. edit: actually that 14.3 you were referring to Feb longterm. Dec '81-'10 looks pretty accurate near 13". It is lower when you include 1974-1980 and 2011-2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I'm really curious what shakes out up here in December. Like J.Spin said, November is only 7% of snowfall so say we get out of the month with only 2-4", that's like 25-33% or normal, easy to make up. Though if December follows a similar path, we've got some work to do like '06-'07 style. For you guys it may not matter much, but a rough December does create a decent hole to get out of up here. The back-loaded winters are interesting...if they are on steroids like '06-07 we can make it up and then more. If its just a fun winter period but nothing excessive, it can struggle to make up for the first part of winter. We just need a 110" December on the mountain like '07 that can put us ahead for the winter and roll with that, haha. I'd worry about dry weather there in December...it can be kind of warm, but if we get systems, you'll get plenty of snow there. It's still way early to know really how active the December pattern is going to be, but I'd like to start seeing an active STJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 except 75% of the Dec total average occurs from Dec 15th on In SNE? Here it's closer to 40%, and barely 1/3 over the past 25 years, during this anomalous Grinch-swarm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 In SNE? Here it's closer to 40%, and barely 1/3 over the past 25 years, during this anomalous Grinch-swarm. I don't think he taking about the foot hills of ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 In SNE? Here it's closer to 40%, and barely 1/3 over the past 25 years, during this anomalous Grinch-swarm.Yeah that would be interesting to see. I bet there may be a recent bias earlier in the month...because it can't seem to snow between like 12/23 and 12/28.Still that's impressive if only 33% of your Dec snowfall over the past 25 years came after Dec 15. Talk about a lopsided month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 12z GFS shows how things can happen even if in la la land, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 says the guy who just said 1-2 days BN with AN as far as you can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 says the guy who just said 1-2 days BN with AN as far as you can see.Thats pretty much group concencus, but of course you are still talking about a cold snowy pattern with some BN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Thats pretty much group concencus, but of course you are still talking about a cold snowy pattern with some BN of course you continue to make stuff up and lie which is how you roll. I said and I believe others agree that the beginning of Dec provides a chance at snow before milder air enters for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 says the guy who just said 1-2 days BN with AN as far as you can see. Remember he just said nothing wintry for 45-60 days lol. Which still only brings us to Mid to late January...kind of like last year when it started around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Just so the liar sees it again CTValleySnowMan, on 20 Nov 2015 - 07:55 AM, said: It will not be in the 60's next Friday Saturday and Sunday, 50's is much more realistic. There will be another cool shot November 30th / December 2nd, but it will not be as cool as some of the modeling originally indicated but there is still the opportunity for something wintry in that time frame. December will probably average above normal but I think the anomalies will come down some from November and there will be a couple of opportunities regardless of the overall hostile pattern, which is what most people thought all along. Great post, obviously LR stuff is fraught with 12 hr changes but if you look at the entire pattern there is no death knoll for potential . Its pretty standard stuff . We know our SNE climo, real chances usually start near week before Christmas usually despite some assertions. winter in SNE 12/21 to 3/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Just so the liar sees it again CTValleySnowMan, on 20 Nov 2015 - 07:55 AM, said: Great post, obviously LR stuff is fraught with 12 hr changes but if you look at the entire pattern there is no death knoll for potential . Its pretty standard stuff . We know our SNE climo, real chances usually start near week before Christmas usually despite some assertions. winter in SNE 12/21 to 3/21 Don't even bother Ginxy, we know what you meant and said, and people reasonable do understand your point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 of course you continue to make stuff up and lie which is how you roll. I said and I believe others agree that the beginning of Dec provides a chance at snow before milder air enters for a while.No matter what anyone posts you offer a rebuttal that has something to do with cold, overrunning, squalls, windexy, pattern looks interesting ahead, torch long weekend is only 40's and a few hours of 50 then Arctic hounds are released. I could go on and on. Why can't you just admit the pattern has, currently does , and will continue to be mild, and generally snowless? I just don't see why you can't admit it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 No matter what anyone posts you offer a rebuttal that has something to do with cold, overrunning, squalls, windexy, pattern looks interesting ahead, torch long weekend is only 40's and a few hours of 50 then Arctic hounds are released. I could go on and on. Why can't you just admit the pattern has, currently does , and will continue to be mild, and generally snowless? I just don't see why you can't admit it And from everything I've read from the mets on here..this is group consensus Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan 4 hrs · Facebook Mentions · Long term model forecasts continue to point to a very mild start to December. Nothing wintry for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Don't even bother Ginxy, we know what you meant and said, and people reasonable do understand your point.Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Too bad, Euro brushes CC with a coastal MOnday. Would be nice if it could come west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Don't even bother Ginxy, we know what you meant and said, and people reasonable do understand your point.Sorry you don't know the difference between what's real and what isn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.