powderfreak Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 my averages for the nearby COOP in North Foster have come up, the shorter period of time records are kept there have been affected by recent wintry periods , records are from 75 . Obviously being 100 feet lower and 5 miles east my numbers are about 3/4 these but a good estimate November 2.5 December 13.0 January 14.7 February 12.4 March 11.4 April 3.0So December gets as much snow as the other main months, even more than Feb and March. That sounds like a winter month instead of starting at the holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 So December gets as much snow as the other main months, even more than Feb and March. That sounds like a winter month. Not in el nino seasons, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Not in el nino seasons, though. I have no idea, just surprised Dec was right up there with all the SNE winter starts at the holidays talk climo wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 I have no idea, just surprised Dec was right up there with all the SNE winter starts at the holidays talk climo wise. Well, keep in mind that the bookends of the season are also more prone to large cut offs owed to the shorter wave lengths. This is what may account for some of the month of December's success in producing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 This November was certainly aided by intraseasonal stuff like a strong MJO wave that made it look Nina. I am not sure why proving this November didn't match other strong Nino Novembers, means anything. December looks to go back to typical Nino look for now. yeah not a good look once we get through the leftovers from the epo dump and that brief greenland ridge. don't know how warm it ends up but just given the dailies dropping quick this time of year...certainly going to be tough to pull negative departures with that kind of a pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I have no idea, just surprised Dec was right up there with all the SNE winter starts at the holidays talk climo wise.Well you would think that if you read the posts on here about some people not ever expecting snow before Xmas and if it does it's a bonus..lol. It's hard to fathom how someone living in SNE could or would ever think that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 November on average represents ~7% of the season’s snowfall here, so missing out on it certainly isn’t a deal breaker, but it can mean a hit to the season, or if it comes it can help out some like last year when areas around here saw 20”+. It can certainly make the snow season longer as you say – in the top ~1/3 of seasons around here, the permanent winter snowpack has either already started, or will start during the coming thanksgiving week. As I mentioned before, I think a bigger area of concern is that since November snow is the norm in this area, if we have a season where we go all 4+ weeks of November without any snow, that could mean that we’re stuck a specific weather pattern that might be carrying over into December. I’m happy to say we’re not there though, regardless of how much natural snow falls, it sure looks like you guys are good to blow at the resort for an opening next week. Nov. is only 5% of snow here. Of course, upslope NW'erlies aren't any help in this CAD capitol. In 17 Novembers, my snowfall has ranged from a trace in 2006 to 17.0" last year. So far my only flakes of the season came on Oct. 18 - about 5 of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 This November was certainly aided by intraseasonal stuff like a strong MJO wave that made it look Nina. I am not sure why proving this November didn't match other strong Nino Novembers, means anything. December looks to go back to typical Nino look for now. Its not so much about the month of November per se, it was born of that talk because of the stat regarding warm Novembers and ensuing winter seasons that was referenced. This is actually more about the QBO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Not in el nino seasons, though. Well you would think that if you read the posts on here about some people not ever expecting snow before Xmas and if it does it's a bonus..lol. It's hard to fathom how someone living in SNE could or would ever think that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 well there is the list of the top 15 I mean after that its just noise and we are talking Dendrite level tenths of a degree Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 So December gets as much snow as the other main months, even more than Feb and March. That sounds like a winter month instead of starting at the holidays. For ORH, December is definitely less than January and February. Longterm ORH average in December is 13.7". January is 17.9", February is 17.0", and March is 14.1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Well, keep in mind that the bookends of the season are also more prone to large cut offs owed to the shorter wave lengths. This is what may account for some of the month of December's success in producing. Maybe, but that North Foster data is interesting in that the December total is actually higher than February and March. Given that Ginxy said its a lower period of record and impacted by recent snowy times, that's even more surprising because the largest snowfalls lately have been coming later in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 For ORH, December is definitely less than January and February. Longterm ORH average in December is 13.7". January is 17.9", February is 17.0", and March is 14.1". Yeah I was curious your thoughts on the North Foster numbers... does December 1992 just do that much difference to that month there or something? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 the ensembles open the pac floodgates starting around day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Not in el nino seasons, though. I also thought we aren't supposed to broad-brush this El Nino though...its like we can take some aspects of Nino but toss some others to fit the narrative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 So December gets as much snow as the other main months, even more than Feb and March. That sounds like a winter month instead of starting at the holidays. except 75% of the Dec total average occurs from Dec 15th on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Yeah I was curious your thoughts on the North Foster numbers... does December 1992 just do that much difference to that month there or something? lol. I'm not sure where he pulled the data from for N Foster...Climod has Dec there at 11.7", Jan at 15.9" and Feb at 14.7". That would make sense to me intuitively based on our climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 When I get off this roof and back to a PC I will post the Dec daily averages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I'm not sure where he pulled the data from for N Foster...Climod has Dec there at 11.7", Jan at 15.9" and Feb at 14.7". That would make sense to me intuitively based on our climo.Climod, I posted the direct numbers,will post the charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I always expect one accumulating snowfall in November. I'm sure most interior areas in New England do. Even in a Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 I also thought we aren't supposed to broad-brush this El Nino though...its like we can take some aspects of Nino but toss some others to fit the narrative. This isn't a modoki, so why expect a snowy December? We do not generalize, correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 the ensembles open the pac floodgates starting around day 10 Just in time to produce the expected result this December. Good news for the outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Steve uses the climate data base WIGWAM...records go back to 1080AD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 This isn't a modoki, so why expect a snowy December? We do not generalize, correct. I'm not expecting a snowy December, lol, certainly not with this look going on. Sometimes its hard to tell the difference between the Nino generalizations and something that's meant to be more specific to this winter, that's all. Like El Nino is the main driver but just how much of that driver differs from person to person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Steve uses the climate data base WIGWAM...records go back to 1080AD. QBO data etched on a cave wall within a glacier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Just in time to produce the expected result this December. Good news for the outlooks. i can't wait for our 3 1/2 weeks of winter cold rainstorms this feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Climod, I posted the direct numbers,will post the charts This is what I have for climod at N Foster...the only error noticeable was some missing data in Dec 2003, which would bring the average down, but not by a lot. Maybe half an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Just in time to produce the expected result this December. Good news for the outlooks. lol, its a win-win. December is warm with low snow, good news for the outlooks. December gets some good snow events going, but still warm, that's just the holy grail right there. Win for the outlooks and the snow weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 I'm not expecting a snowy December, lol, certainly not with this look going on. Sometimes its hard to tell the difference between the Nino generalizations and something that's meant to be more specific to this winter, that's all. Like El Nino is the main driver but just how much of that driver differs from person to person. I think it has been made pretty clear that the most favorable of el nino Decembers come in modiki events.....even the basin wide composite, which this event will join, does not have a favorable December appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 i can't wait for our 3 1/2 weeks of winter cold rainstorms this feb If you can nail a forecast accurate within .5* at a 3 month lead, then I'm not sure how you have yet to secure a position within the industry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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