Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Noyes has the highest temp next week at 65 LOL..add on 10-15 degrees to that on the warmest days and you're close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Noyes has the highest temp next week at 65 LOL..add on 10-15 degrees to that on the warmest days and you're close You're aware of the BDL records this time of year, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 You're aware of the BDL records this time of year, correct? If Noyes had 75 for his highest temp next week he would have posted it as a way of showing Noyes supports his ideas for warmth next week. Noyes fluctuates between "forecasting genius" to "forecasting idiot" ..it all depends on if Noyes' thoughts supports or doesn't support his thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 You're aware of the BDL records this time of year, correct? Lol at Kevin knowing local climo and records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 The funny thing about this month, is that after the torch next week...we sort of get into a gradient pattern. So, it's conceivable some sneaky cold could get in and make for a wintry setup in NNE especially...but you can't rule out interior SNE after mid month. While there are no direct solutions on the runs showing this, you can see how the GFS has a couple strung out storms from this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 The funny thing about this month, is that after the torch next week...we sort of get into a gradient pattern. So, it's conceivable some sneaky cold could get in and make for a wintry setup in NNE especially...but you can't rule out interior SNE after mid month. While there are no direct solutions on the runs showing this, you can see how the GFS has a couple strung out storms from this pattern.Hopefully we continue the gradient pattern into DEC. That's how us CP dwellers get early season snows ala DEC 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Hopefully we continue the gradient pattern into DEC. That's how us CP dwellers get early season snows ala DEC 2007. I don't expect that to last. It's probably something temporary from MJO. My guess is December is probably mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Bring it on, Could use some tracking snow mid month on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 The funny thing about this month, is that after the torch next week...we sort of get into a gradient pattern. So, it's conceivable some sneaky cold could get in and make for a wintry setup in NNE especially...but you can't rule out interior SNE after mid month. While there are no direct solutions on the runs showing this, you can see how the GFS has a couple strung out storms from this pattern. Yeah the ensembles have been showing that well the past few days... below normal heights in Quebec, near normal heights in New England in general, but south of NYC heights quickly go higher than normal. Has potential to go either way...that gradient inches further north and we are warm, it comes down a little further south and NNE is actually a chilly. Could be some days where its like holding in the 30s and 40s in NNE but 60s at PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Looking at the 00z EPS, very changeable weather in the long range. In NNE it has H85 temp anomalies of +10 at day 7, but then has -10 departures at Day 9, then back to +10 at day 12. And that's an ensemble mean. Has a fairly sharp cold shot that drops out of Quebec in there, while the entire time the Ohio Valley roasts. Also noteworthy is how much central and western Canada roast over the next two weeks. Looping the anomalies, its like just as soon as it tries to cool off to normal, another huge warm anomaly blossoms over them. Not going to get much southward progression of snow cover with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 mentioned this yesterday that the tele's had that 10 to 20 F + look ... NCEP seems to be biting: AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48...AND FOR DAYS 4-6...HIGH TEMPERATURES (GENERALLY EAST OF 100W LONGITUDE) ARE QUITE MILD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER---AND A GOOD 8-18F ABOVE NORMAL. PLENTY OF 70S INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN STATES---SOME 80S. EVEN FLORIDA WILL BE 4-8F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER HIGHS. THE TEMPERATURES ON DAY 7 REFLECT A DOWNWARD TREND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ERODES THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THIS STRONG RIDGE. It's interesting that "northeast" was left out of that... Too many methods to burn a 'cast at this range when talking amplitude... But as is, I'd suggest that swaths in for a couple three days. No relaxation in the tele's from that appeal, either. The CDC does have a bit of compensating dip in the EPO, but I don't believe it is of sufficient magnitude to off-set the insane -PNA/+NAO couplet that sets in and last almost 10 days. May mean a couple of pulses/intervals of this type of whopper warmth (relative to season) during that time span. interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 No surprise. A few of us have been saying 75-80 for a few days next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 No surprise. A few of us have been saying 75-80 for a few days next week Record Highs for BDL later next week...looking at the progs, the Friday one would be the most vulnerable as that seems to be the apex of the warmth and the record is a little weak. Tues 11/3...78F Wed 11/4...78F Thur 11/5...76F Fri 11/6...72F Sat 11/7...74F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 There looks to be a WF boundary right over SNE later this week. Could be a torch Tolland on SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Before you know it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 No surprise. A few of us have been saying 75-80 for a few days next weekI'm always a fan for aggressive forecasting, but you always take it a little overboard. I could see a couple of days of 70-75. BDL has no records >78F after 11/2. You better get some good mixing to get it into that range. Today they hit 75F with 12C 850s but it was post frontal with good mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Good commercial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 I'm always a fan for aggressive forecasting, but you always take it a little overboard. I could see a couple of days of 70-75. BDL has no records >78F after 11/2. You better get some good mixing to get it into that range. Today they hit 75F with 12C 850s but it was post frontal with good mixing.Yeah I'm banking on w winds mixing and the Progged +14c... This also goes for TAN/BOS and Merimac Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 @ericfisher: Today ran a solid +18F above average for the date. We may do it again next week. Take your time, winter. https://t.co/PENV2rrF4p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Good commercial. Just got super fired up for kickoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 From the NWS for Kevin Steve Gencarelle @steveginx 8m8 minutes ago @NWSBoston convoluted definition of drought. Water tables are fine, growing season is over, what effect does this so called drought have? 0 retweets0 favorites Reply Retweet Favorite More NWS Boston @NWSBoston 5s5 seconds ago @steveginx FWIW, it does seem convoluted, drought monitor will update, but overall believe it's respective of rainfall deficit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 From the NWS for Kevin 45] Steve Gencarelle @steveginx 8m8 minutes ago @NWSBoston convoluted definition of drought. Water tables are fine, growing season is over, what effect does this so called drought have? 0 retweets0 favorites Reply Retweet Favorite More 45] NWS Boston @NWSBoston 5s5 seconds ago @steveginx FWIW, it does seem convoluted, drought monitor will update, but overall believe it's respective of rainfall deficit they admitted its BS and really only shows where rainfall is deficient, the 2015 definition of drought, smdh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Drought and SNE go together about as good as a glass of milk and cherrystones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Drought and SNE go together about as good as a glass of milk and cherrystones.mysteriously quiet now that the NWS has basically divulged Kev's drought obsession as stupid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Drought and SNE go together about as good as a glass of milk and cherrystones. No chance of a California-level drought, but the early 1960s, 1962 thru late summer 1966, was pretty dry, far greater than anything recently. Of course, NE drought issues are mainly dug wells and city water supplies, plus increased wildfire danger. However, six NE states had their driest year in 1965 (or at least the driest year by any reporting location in the state), DE up thru MA, except for NY. And NYC had just over 26" for its driest of 140+ years of record, over 7" below the 2nd driest, which was the year before. 1963 is 4th driest and 1962 is in the lowest 15% of years. Again, not like a Western drought, as only 1965 gave NYC less than 73% of their avg annual precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 The 80s had a couple of "dry" years too as I recall that the Quabin Reservoir dropped pretty far down that you could see exposed walls and roads from when there were towns there. Those are the only years where it because a real concern is when public water supplies become an issue but they are rarely multi-year issues requiring constant vigilance and conservation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 FWIW (not sure how much given the strength of the Nino) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Holy windchills up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Thursday and Friday look to torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 ASOUT 75-80 and records..guess we do know climo ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE NOSING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER MAINLY DRYWITH ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE PERIOD.GIVEN 850 MB TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN +10C AND +12C AND ARATHER DRY ATMOSPHERE...GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS ARE PROBABLY TOO COOLTRENDING TOO MUCH TO CLIMATOLOGY. SO DESPITE LOWERING SUNANGLE/SHORTENING DAYS...HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE WELL UP INTO THE 60STO THE LOWER 70S MOST OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISEDTO SEE HIGHS REACH THE MIDDLE 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS ON THU. RECORDHIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE CHALLENGED THU AND FRI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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