WinterWolf Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Great post, obviously LR stuff is fraught with 12 hr changes but if you look at the entire pattern there is no death knoll for potential . Its pretty standard stuff . We know our SNE climo, real chances usually start near week before Christmas usually despite some assertions. winter in SNE 12/21 to 3/21 I was going to compliment him as well with that post. Logical and reasonable...nice job CTvalleysnowman!! Any type of snow in SNE before Xmas is always a bonus imo. It happens, and some times we have big ones happening before Xmas in December, but more often than not, it seems to take the pattern time to Mature so to speak, before the snow really starts to fly, and likes to fly in SNE. I agree with the 12/21-3/21 idea in most cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Always fun when All snow comes in and trolls, best was Jan 22nd last year cancelling winter or Dec 12 when he called for 12 inches for the winter in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 I was going to compliment him as well with that post. Logical and reasonable...nice job CTvalleysnowman!! Any type of snow in SNE before Xmas is always a bonus imo. It happens, and some times we have big ones happening before Xmas in December, but more often than not, it seems to take the pattern time to Mature so to speak, before the snow really starts to fly, and likes to fly in SNE. I agree with the 12/21-3/21 idea in most cases. Its often simply a matter of waiting for the bath water to the east of us to cool, but this season it will be both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Sucks...I had started to bite on that a bit, but its not the end of the world. I can't name anyone who called for a fun December..... This is why I made a pact with myself to not even follow the models much at all until January.....figured they would be frought with false, premature hope. When we started to see the torch setup for the holiday weekend and the cold dump out west..I started to worry that the promised period might not work out. Usually we get a couple good snowfalls in December and even 1 in Nov. This year that doesn't appear to be in the cards. The only wildcard we still have is what the recurving typhoon may do to the pattern.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 When we started to see the torch setup for the holiday weekend and the cold dump out west..I started to worry that the promised period might not work out. Usually we get a couple good snowfalls in December and even 1 in Nov. This year that doesn't appear to be in the cards. The only wildcard we still have is what the recurving typhoon may do to the pattern.. Ruling out snowfall in December is plane ludicrous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Ruling out snowfall in December is plane ludicrous. Not ruling it out, but the chances are certainly not very high this year..Not with the one eyed pig in the GOA and Canada getting flooded with PAC air. People don't realize..once you flood Canada ..we don't strand a chance until it can be replenished Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 When we started to see the torch setup for the holiday weekend and the cold dump out west..I started to worry that the promised period might not work out. Usually we get a couple good snowfalls in December and even 1 in Nov. This year that doesn't appear to be in the cards. The only wildcard we still have is what the recurving typhoon may do to the pattern.. Define good? ORH averages maybe 3" in November and that average is a product of lousy Novembers and a rogue dumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Define good? ORH averages maybe 3" in November and that average is a product of lousy Novembers and a rogue dumping. A good snowfall in November is a couple inches. I don't get where this nonsense of we usually don't see good snows in December comes from . It's completely false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Define good? ORH averages maybe 3" in November and that average is a product of lousy Novembers and a rogue dumping. Oh the humanity if we miss climo snowfall for NOV. That will put us in serious jeopardy of a ratter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Its often simply a matter of waiting for the bath water to the east of us to cool, but this season it will be both. That too about the ocean...I agree. Which is also wrapped in to the Maturation of the pattern. Like Baroclinic Zone said a few posts back, "Some people have such lofty expectations", and it clouds their reasonableness on what to expect in most cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 It always stretches and deforms, but I don't see anything close to intriguing. Certainly nothing eye opening other than this, I think it tanks right around Christmas based on the attacks its been getting. The WAF attacks don't do it but appears to me that in a month we may see a real tank which would screw my warm Christmas week forecast. Getting more and more intrigued by that period. Having the PV nearer to Hudson bay gives us the opportunity for some quick cold shots aside the positive EPO, modeling shows that at times where we end up with a roll over ridge in the middle of the country and lower height fields in NE. Pattern overall is warm but have to consider the opportunity for cold shots especially with Eastern Canada being loaded with snow and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Not ruling it out, but the chances are certainly not very high this year..Not with the one eyed pig in the GOA and Canada getting flooded with PAC air. People don't realize..once you flood Canada ..we don't strand a chance until it can be replenished The worst of patterns can muster a date with luck, but it does not generally look good right now. No......but nor was it expected to. Things are going entirely as planned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 A good snowfall in November is a couple inches. I don't get where this nonsense of we usually don't see good snows in December comes from . It's completely false I average about 12-15". My hunch is that I steal one significant event before the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Always fun when All snow comes in and trolls, best was Jan 22nd last year cancelling winter or Dec 12 when he called for 12 inches for the winter in SNE. he tried to troll me on yesterday's rains saying we were all getting .50 1-2 inches later and he's back in his rat hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I average about 12-15". My hunch is that I steal one significant event before the new year. my averages for the nearby COOP in North Foster have come up, the shorter period of time records are kept there have been affected by recent wintry periods , records are from 75 . Obviously being 100 feet lower and 5 miles east my numbers are about 3/4 these but a good estimate November 2.5 December 13.0 January 14.7 February 12.4 March 11.4 April 3.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 A good snowfall in November is a couple inches. I don't get where this nonsense of we usually don't see good snows in December comes from . It's completely false I said November. December still can be a product of very snowy months and lackluster months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I still have hopes for the second half of winter. The extremely warm November does have me worried just a bit looking at how historically things have gone. That being said, climate change will be the wild card and that could go either way, a massive blizzard in a sea of warmth or breaking warm temp records by whole degrees instead of fractions.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 I still have hopes for the second half of winter. The extremely warm November does have me worried just a bit looking at how historically things have gone. That being said, climate change will be the wild card and that could go either way, a massive blizzard in a sea of warmth or breaking warm temp records by whole degrees instead of fractions.... Here is a little hint. Burn all of the November analogs that are not el nino seasons. Irrelevant. May as well lump this el nino in with 2009 if you are going to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 If any of the debbies would like to hang me a curve ball, post a composite of all warm November el nino seasons in my outlook thread, and I'll tee it up it in the12/1 update. Wouldn't mind some batting practice prior to ma nature's first pitch scheduled for latter January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Last December was warm and snowless fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Go take your complaining to the panic in tolland thread. We should at least be discussing the pattern in here and not lamenting over the fact that you might miss a 2 inch snowfall on 11/29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Go take your complaining to the panic in tolland thread. We should at least be discussing the pattern in here and not lamenting over the fact that you might miss a 2 inch snowfall on 11/29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Go take your complaining to the panic in tolland thread. We should at least be discussing the pattern in here and not lamenting over the fact that you might miss a 2 inch snowfall on 11/29. You have never been one to handle bad patterns very well. They tend to turn you into someone your're not on the forums. I'd suggest at least rationalizing the next 45-60 days don't hold too much in the way of winter. Maybe after that ..Until then..concentrate on home buying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 If any of the debbies would like to hang me a curve ball, post a composite of all warm November el nino seasons in my outlook thread, and I'll tee it up it in the12/1 update. Wouldn't mind some batting practice prior to ma nature's first pitch scheduled for latter January. Reading top 15 , have no clue what the Super Nino dates are in this, wait there are none 1 1961-11-19 56.4 2 2011-11-19 56.2 3 2005-11-19 56.1 4 2010-11-19 55.8 5 2007-11-19 55.6 6 2001-11-19 55.3 - 1971-11-19 55.3 8 1990-11-19 54.8 9 1999-11-19 54.6 10 2006-11-19 54.5 11 1975-11-19 54.4 12 1983-11-19 54.3 13 1998-11-19 54.2 - 1994-11-19 54.2 15 2013-11-19 54.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Super Steve to the rescue, streamlining obscure meteorological data at a moment's notice all over the world. Steve, you've included the following year's Novie in some of those...should be that of the preceding year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 quick average of those is 65 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Super Steve to the rescue, streamlining obscure meteorological data at a moment's notice all over the world. those are Sept to Nov records sorry, you want just Nov? 82 shows up 1 2011 47.3 2 2006 46.4 3 1975 46.2 4 1999 46.0 5 2009 45.9 6 1979 45.7 7 2001 45.6 8 1994 45.2 9 1963 44.5 10 1982 44.1 11 1990 44.0 12 2005 43.6 13 1966 43.5 14 1977 43.3 15 2003 43.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 those are Sept to Nov records sorry, you want just Nov? 82 shows up 1 2011 47.3 2 2006 46.4 3 1975 46.2 4 1999 46.0 5 2009 45.9 6 1979 45.7 7 2001 45.6 8 1994 45.2 9 1963 44.5 10 1982 44.1 11 1990 44.0 12 2005 43.6 13 1966 43.5 14 1977 43.3 15 2003 43.1 I meant warmest EL NINO Novembers....NBD, though....don't worry about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I meant warmest EL NINO Novembers....NBD, though....don't worry about it. well there is the list of the top 15 I mean after that its just noise and we are talking Dendrite level tenths of a degree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 This November was certainly aided by intraseasonal stuff like a strong MJO wave that made it look Nina. I am not sure why proving this November didn't match other strong Nino Novembers, means anything. December looks to go back to typical Nino look for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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