dendrite Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Thats as far as the Euro goes but Turkey day here ya go, based on cloud cover probably a 3-5 degree rise after that on Friday, its not a torch setup at all. Mets know thisAgree...looks chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Agree...looks chilly. image.png bumping a post from yesterday and using 5 h to prove a point a day later, butthurt much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I think I like my thought of a warm December more and more. Hope not, but pattern and weeklies suggest it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 bumping a post from yesterday and using 5 h to prove a point a day later, butthurt much?I could've posted it a day earlier too. ¿Que tu problemo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I think I like my thought of a warm December more and more. Hope not, but pattern and weeklies suggest it. It's everyone's thought. Well almost ..everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Freaking 60's all holiday weekend(Fri/sat into Sun). It's looked like that for days and I was hoping we'd see things trend colder with the trough coming east,,instead they trended warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Freaking 60's all holiday weekend(Fri/sat into Sun). It's looked like that for days and I was hoping we'd see things trend colder with the trough coming east,,instead they trended warmer It seems like we've had many mild thanksgiving weekends over the past 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Not sure about 60s all weekend given that setup, but mild overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 It's everyone's thought. Well almost ..everyone Good news for 99.9% of the winter outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Not sure about 60s all weekend given that setup, but mild overall.Also lost the cold after holiday weekend and subsequent snow chance before the early Dec retorch. Not a surprise in strongest Nino but doesn't mean it doesn't suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Also lost the cold after holiday weekend and subsequent snow chance before the early Dec retorch. Not a surprise in strongest Nino but doesn't mean it doesn't suck Nino is not the culprit though. It may be later but not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Also lost the cold after holiday weekend and subsequent snow chance before the early Dec retorch. Not a surprise in strongest Nino but doesn't mean it doesn't suck What cold? And LOL at models losing something 10 days out. Hey the CFS lost my Valentines Day snowstorm last night at hr 1200. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 What cold? And LOL at models losing something 10 days out. Hey the CFS lost my Valentines Day snowstorm last night at hr 1200.There had been a well advertised cold period in the east on ensembles and there was talk on here and elsewhere by you and others at a decent chance of snow late month or early Dec. That has completely disappeared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Where's my Sunday WINDEX that I was promised? d10 op runs FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Looking forward to more warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 There had been a well advertised cold period in the east on ensembles and there was talk on here and elsewhere by you and others at a decent chance of snow late month or early Dec. That has completely disappeared Dude, take some prozac. We couldn't have advertised enough caution. Either way there is a small window to start December for some sort of event, but low chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Where's my Sunday WINDEX that I was promised? d10 op runs FTL. coldfail.png The Hounds? Overrunning fun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Dude, take some prozac. We couldn't have advertised enough caution. Either way there is a small window to start December for some sort of event, but low chance.Its all a dream. Couple cool days Mon and Tues and then AN as far out as you can see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 It will not be in the 60's next Friday Saturday and Sunday, 50's is much more realistic. There will be another cool shot November 30th / December 2nd, but it will not be as cool as some of the modeling originally indicated but there is still the opportunity for something wintry in that time frame. December will probably average above normal but I think the anomalies will come down some from November and there will be a couple of opportunities regardless of the overall hostile pattern, which is what most people thought all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Nasty mild pattern on EC ensembles for early December....+EPO/+NAO. That's not gonna produce much if it verifies. December 1994, 2006, 2011 esque. If you're looking for a bright spot, it does appear perhaps the Aleutian low starts reorganizing near the end...if that happened, then you'd eventually see the EPO relax in all likelihood...but that is a long ways out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I see no real signs of a stratospheric vortex breakdown either. If anything it consolidates again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 The Hounds? Overrunning fun? 12.5 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 There had been a well advertised cold period in the east on ensembles and there was talk on here and elsewhere by you and others at a decent chance of snow late month or early Dec. That has completely disappeared Sucks...I had started to bite on that a bit, but its not the end of the world. I can't name anyone who called for a fun December..... This is why I made a pact with myself to not even follow the models much at all until January.....figured they would be frought with false, premature hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Its all a dream. Couple cool days Mon and Tues and then AN as far out as you can see thats not true at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Just remember....I'd expect that right into January, as these drastic shifts are almost always slower than advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 It will not be in the 60's next Friday Saturday and Sunday, 50's is much more realistic. There will be another cool shot November 30th / December 2nd, but it will not be as cool as some of the modeling originally indicated but there is still the opportunity for something wintry in that time frame. December will probably average above normal but I think the anomalies will come down some from November and there will be a couple of opportunities regardless of the overall hostile pattern, which is what most people thought all along. Great post, obviously LR stuff is fraught with 12 hr changes but if you look at the entire pattern there is no death knoll for potential . Its pretty standard stuff . We know our SNE climo, real chances usually start near week before Christmas usually despite some assertions. winter in SNE 12/21 to 3/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Great post, obviously LR stuff is fraught with 12 hr changes but if you look at the entire pattern there is no death knoll for potential . Its pretty standard stuff . We know our SNE climo, real chances start near Christmas usually despite some assertions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I see no real signs of a stratospheric vortex breakdown either. If anything it consolidates again. But its stretched and not locked up spinning tight inside the Arctic circle, location matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Great post, obviously LR stuff is fraught with 12 hr changes but if you look at the entire pattern there is no death knoll for potential . Its pretty standard stuff . We know our SNE climo, real chances usually start near week before Christmas usually despite some assertions. winter in SNE 12/21 to 3/21 Some peoples expectations can be lofty. I'm thoroughly enjoying this weather. Seasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 But its stretched and not locked up spinning tight inside the Arctic circle, location matters It always stretches and deforms, but I don't see anything close to intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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