Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 That's like +12 to +14 for BDL...avg high is 46 next weekend there. Though my guess is if the Euro verified synoptically, the 2m temps might be a bit higher than it shows. the sun comes out on this run, clown range stuff anyways, lets revisit this silliness next Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 dude thats not plus 17 Your right, looks like +12 to +14 at IJD for Friday and Saturday. Either way, its a warm couple days. Record high of 64F and 65F at IJD would be safe if the Euro's near 60F highs are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 That's like +12 to +14 for BDL...avg high is 46 next weekend there. Though my guess is if the Euro verified synoptically, the 2m temps might be a bit higher than it shows. Yeah I was just going off the T2 Anomaly maps. I wonder if those are computed hourly or something though. Like the high temperature that day may not be +17 or something, but at that specific hour of the day it could be? I'm not sure how climo works, are there even climo temperatures per hour or is it just high/low? Now I'm not sure on those maps, but Montreal has a couple like +30 panels, lol. I bet BTV with its prone to southerly nocturnal low level jet puts up some huge night-time departures. One of those nights we are bound to wake up to MVL/MPV at like 36F and calm, while BTV is 52F and 20-30kts out of the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Yeah I was just going off the T2 Anomaly maps. I wonder if those are computed hourly or something though. Like the high temperature that day may not be +17 or something, but at that specific hour of the day it could be? I'm not sure how climo works, are there even climo temperatures per hour or is it just high/low? You nailed it but pretty sure highs for most late nov days are around 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Yeah I was just going off the T2 Anomaly maps. I wonder if those are computed hourly or something though. Like the high temperature that day may not be +17 or something, but at that specific hour of the day it could be? I'm not sure how climo works, are there even climo temperatures per hour or is it just high/low? I believe it's a snapshot at that time and, if I had to guess, it uses some sort of formula to calculate estimated climo at the given hour? I know it's in relation to the time and not the daily high/low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Yeah I was just going off the T2 Anomaly maps. I wonder if those are computed hourly or something though. Like the high temperature that day may not be +17 or something, but at that specific hour of the day it could be? I'm not sure how climo works, are there even climo temperatures per hour or is it just high/low? I have no idea how it computes them. It might not even be against actual climo data, but rather than it's own model data...though the Euros do keep on top of their verification. Either way, the numbers really aren't meant for nitpicking in detail...it's mostly just for "this is really warm or really cold" type analysis. In this particular case, they are even less useful since we're debating a 200 hour OP solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I have no idea how it computes them. It might not even be against actual climo data, but rather than it's own model data...though the Euros do keep on top of their verification. Either way, the numbers really aren't meant for nitpicking in detail...it's mostly just for "this is really warm or really cold" type analysis. In this particular case, they are even less useful since we're debating a 200 hour OP solution. True, nice cold shot coming prior which can be discussed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 A bit of a tick west on the 18Z GFS for Monday not really enough to make a difference but CCB gets into Eastport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 A bit of a tick west on the 18Z GFS for Monday not really enough to make a difference but CCB gets into Eastport. Now that never happens lol geezus, congrats Nick in his new haunts in ST Johns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Seems like Sunday is getting stormier as we get each set of runs.. NAm/Ukie/Euro Maybe a rain to snow scenario inland? Tim Kelley NECN @SurfSkiWxMan 42m42 minutes ago New NAM trying to phase stream on Sunday Now 1"+ Rainfall E MA Getting cold too 2 retweets2 likes Reply Retweet 2 Like 2 More Benjamin Sipprell @SipprellWx 26m26 minutes ago @SurfSkiWxMan ... Held back on the NAM today, strongest on n-stream occlusion, rough after 60-hrs. Touch base NWSchat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Any isallobaric component? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Still think this recurve is going to start changing models around past day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Last 5 runs of GFS. Trend much? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...=0&ypos=334 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 You nailed it but pretty sure highs for most late nov days are around 18Z Yeah that's what I would've thought. Interesting, I used to think those anomaly maps were fairly accurate, but you're right, it was off by 3-5F at IJD. I like to use the H85 anomalies too but now I'm curious on their accuracy lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Your right, looks like +12 to +14 at IJD for Friday and Saturday. Either way, its a warm couple days. Record high of 64F and 65F at IJD would be safe if the Euro's near 60F highs are right. The euro has near record 850 temps progged for CHH on Saturday (12-13C). If we got some sun with that, look out. Ginxy's 2m temps had 40s on yesterday's run...it's pushing 60F in parts of SNE today.It's 7 days out though...I just winged a +20F out there after looking at the run quickly. It didn't need to be broken down to a tenth of a degree at this range...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Not bad,should be an interesting period,18z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 The euro has near record 850 temps progged for CHH on Saturday (12-13C). If we got some sun with that, look out. Ginxy's 2m temps had 40s on yesterday's run...it's pushing 60F in parts of SNE today. It's 7 days out though...I just winged a +20F out there after looking at the run quickly. It didn't need to be broken down to a tenth of a degree at this range...lol. So far out anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Those recurving typhoons may also change things up too. So 9 days from now may not be the complete blast furnace that it looks like at this point. Way out there yet as many have said as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 The euro has near record 850 temps progged for CHH on Saturday (12-13C). If we got some sun with that, look out. Ginxy's 2m temps had 40s on yesterday's run...it's pushing 60F in parts of SNE today. It's 7 days out though...I just winged a +20F out there after looking at the run quickly. It didn't need to be broken down to a tenth of a degree at this range...lol. Its what we do best . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Its what we do best .6-8 degrees is not tenths though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 6-8 degrees is not tenths though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 maybe we can get Eric to put Ginxy's head on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 6-8 degrees is not tenths though lol nice deflection,you have been off your normal A game ,first calling for a torch the entire long weekend then +20 high departures. Are you OK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 maybe we can get Eric to put Ginxy's head on that.hopefully we can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 There's a difference in the LR guidance and a high spread...I wouldn't get too attached to solutions for the early December pattern. GEFS start the month much colder. Euro ens have been uglier for the last two runs...but it was just a couple runs before that where it was signaling an EPO reload. So we'll see how it looks in another 3 or 4 days when the skill becomes higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Best thoughts are cold /snowy Nov 28-Dec 5.. Then torch thru Xmas and cold down late month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 It is a good month to boost the seasonal tally and do some damage relative to normal though...might not average much, but if you can pull an 8-12" event or something (like last year for example), it definitely makes the snow season longer. Average here is 8-10" for November. I know J.Spin is around 12", and I'm probably 2-3" under that. Yes, November snowfall average for our site is a bit under a foot as you said; the snowfall data plot is here, and correlation plot for November vs. seasonal snowfall is here. Those posts were made at the beginning of the month when we had less of an idea how things were going to play out, but now we know for sure that it’s not going to be snowless. The models do suggest some additional chances for accumulation in the last third of the month as well, so this is certainly not a November 2006 sort of set up. November snowfall variability is still quite high even here, but based on the data I’ve accrued thus far, to go totally snowless in the month would mean being 1.22 S.D. below the snowfall mean, so that should happen only about once a decade. It looks like the situation could be pretty similar over in Tamarack’s area based on the data he posted. November on average represents ~7% of the season’s snowfall here, so missing out on it certainly isn’t a deal breaker, but it can mean a hit to the season, or if it comes it can help out some like last year when areas around here saw 20”+. It can certainly make the snow season longer as you say – in the top ~1/3 of seasons around here, the permanent winter snowpack has either already started, or will start during the coming thanksgiving week. As I mentioned before, I think a bigger area of concern is that since November snow is the norm in this area, if we have a season where we go all 4+ weeks of November without any snow, that could mean that we’re stuck a specific weather pattern that might be carrying over into December. I’m happy to say we’re not there though, regardless of how much natural snow falls, it sure looks like you guys are good to blow at the resort for an opening next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 lol nice deflection,you have been off your normal A game ,first calling for a torch the entire long weekend then +20 high departures. Are you OK?I don't even know how to reply to this.A couple of days look very warm (Fri/Sat). Some +20F deps in the region wouldn't surprise me. I'm not forecasting +20F IYBY. I never called for a torch the entire long weekend. Enjoying thirsty Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I don't even know how to reply to this. A couple of days look very warm (Fri/Sat). Some +20F deps in the region wouldn't surprise me. I'm not forecasting +20F IYBY. I never called for a torch the entire long weekend. Enjoying thirsty Thursday? iced coffee watching blacklistThere's your 50Fs-60F long weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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