CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 There are definitely those higher than my pay grade arguing that those hours of model time are more valuable being put towards other things besides extra GFS runs. Well I know the GFS helps drive initialization of some models, so there is that I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 For those interested, you can view the model climate information for the GEFS at http://ssd.wrh.noaa.gov/satable/ Just click the drop down menu and find M-Climate For instance, that trough that kicked out and into the Southern Plains yesterday, well it was outside of the GEFS model climate. Basically a huge Scooter flag that something big will probably happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Well I know the GFS helps drive initialization of some models, so there is that I suppose. It would be a huge loss to the meteorological community to lose the 06z/18z DGEX runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I would be ok with ditching the off hour runs. Real time analysis along with hi res models can easily slide in to take it's place. I also don't think we are making major changes in longer range forecasts from an 18z or 6z model either. The biggest issue would be the loss of a product that gives weenies hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 It would be a huge loss to the meteorological community to lose the 06z/18z DGEX runs. Well I mean models like the RAP use GFS assimilation. And yes, I will miss the DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 For those interested, you can view the model climate information for the GEFS at http://ssd.wrh.noaa.gov/satable/ Just click the drop down menu and find M-Climate For instance, that trough that kicked out and into the Southern Plains yesterday, well it was outside of the GEFS model climate. Basically a huge Scooter flag that something big will probably happen. naefs_2015111700_conus_mfreq_gh_all_0.png That's pretty cool. Thanks for the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 It would be a huge loss to the meteorological community to lose the 06z/18z DGEX runs.DGEX or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Not to beat a dead horse but what a torch this month has been up and down the northeast +6 or high at all the major climo sites in upton and box forecast area... Glad this did not happen in October as it would have delayed the foliage big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Recurve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I like the off hour runs.....helps my insomnia..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 It's hard to make a good case for arguing in favor of the off-hour runs IMHO. Off-hour runs are most valuable/useful very close to an event and we already have shorter term models that do this like the RGEM/NAM. We aren't going to change an 84 hour forecast very much if there was a huge shift on the 18z GFS...we all wait until the 00z Euro anyway to make a big change even if we didn't care too much about continuity at that time range. What may not be close to an event here may be close to an event in Dallas, Beijing, London, etc. They also can help what had been a shift in a model run as being a trend vs. a blip. Also, we'd have nothing to do on the board but banter for hours on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Sucks that everything lost the snow signal this weekend. Would have been nice to steal an inch or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Those recurving typhoons probably gonna end up making early Dec colder than thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Sucks that everything lost the snow signal this weekend. Would have been nice to steal an inch or 2 Never had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Never had it. GGEM/GFS..even Euro had it for a run or two. Sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 GGEM/GFS..even Euro had it for a run or two. Sucks Fairytale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Bos hit 31 for the low. Someone said we'd wait again till later in december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Bos hit 31 for the low. Someone said we'd wait again till later in december Considering it has only happened once in 2009...probably not the best call to make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 30's for highs Sun/Mon next week with snowshoers and flurries..Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 30's for highs Sun/Mon next week with snowshoers and flurries..Not bad Snowshowers both days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 22, windsexy weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Early next week will definitely have a winter chill, with maybe a few mood flakes around especially in the hills of southern New England. I think we will probably finish November relatively unscathed,, However I'm really starting to feel like December could come in like a lion with the recurving typhoon and the EPO dropping so negative we should have a corresponding PNA spike with a deeper trough into the eastern United States. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Snowshowers both days? Sunday yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 Little to early show snowshoers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Early next week will definitely have a winter chill, with maybe a few mood flakes around especially in the hills of southern New England. I think we will probably finish November relatively unscathed,, However I'm really starting to feel like December could come in like a lion with the recurving typhoon and the EPO dropping so negative we should have a corresponding PNA spike with a deeper trough into the eastern United States. i wouldn't write off the Sun -Mon period for a little more vig stuff. Something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Sunday yup Maybe a few flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 looking LLR this is something going into Dec that gets me interested, nice 5h look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 changes showing up more consistently in the LLR for end of Dec, interesting trend, cold start mild middle cold end? do we break the Grinch curse this year/ maps courtesy WXbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 i wouldn't write off the Sun -Mon period for a little more vig stuff. Something to watch Reminds me of that blast in Oct with widespread snowshowers and squalls..This time could coat things up a bit being a month later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 What may not be close to an event here may be close to an event in Dallas, Beijing, London, etc. They also can help what had been a shift in a model run as being a trend vs. a blip. Also, we'd have nothing to do on the board but banter for hours on end. It shouldn't matter where the event is. We still have shorter term models that have off hour runs to 48 hours or more. We really don't need off hour GFS runs for a 96 hour forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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