ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 That pattern is not a torch for eastern Canada. If and when we do try to force a better +PNA..it's possible there might be money in the bank when it does happen. Definitely a screwy pattern heading through mid November. It's actually a pretty cold pattern up there in E Canada. Assuming it sets up as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 It's actually a pretty cold pattern up there in E Canada. Assuming it sets up as modeled. Yeah..gradient-like for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 It's actually a pretty cold pattern up there in E Canada. Assuming it sets up as modeled.keep putting those nickles in the bank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Just when you thought models couldn't get any warmer..they did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Just when you thought models couldn't get any warmer..they did Just when you thought models couldn't get any warmer..they did wHICH ONE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Warm couple of weeks. some pretty big sigs end of Nov. first week of Dec turn to much colder possible snowstorm. Then turn to much milder mid Dec, Period to watch in Dec seems around Christmas for a big ticket interior snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 American -based teleconnectors would support a record breaking warm spell but the operational (typically more dependable versions) refuse to bite that hard. They keep opting for eastern heights that don't 'bulge' quite as high in latitude, as the robustness of the PNA/NAO phase states would allow. Interesting... The difference ... recent MOS products are as much as a 7 to 10 F above normal on a D6/7 time range - faaaairly certain those numbers begin with the operational version/grid values. Those two-meters are impressively positive numbers in their own rite, given to the steepness of the autumnal climate drop. I know that MOS in particular is climate dimmed more at the end then beginning. I think it all smacks as potential out there, if perhaps not fully realized. either way, above normal first 10 days of Novie appears to well about median confidence at this point, particularly from NYC and points S.. If the ridge does avail of a stack +1 SD NAO, and a diving PNA more discerned, than the confidence pushes N. A west wind 2-day stint some 20 F + highs wouldn't fit right into that spread. Just not quite getting the operationals to bit fully... throwing junk reasons in the fray to just be uninterestingly above normal/banal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 November seems likely to be snow free in all if SNE. As warm a month of Nov as we've ever seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 November seems likely to be snow free in all if SNE. As warm a month of Nov as we've ever seen Pray for the following 4 to be as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Definitely going to be a warm first week of November, looks like it peaks around the 4th and 5th of the month. H5 anomalies off the GEFS H85 anomalies off the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 November seems likely to be snow free in all if SNE. As warm a month of Nov as we've ever seen sounds great but damn I am really going to miss being BN in the snow dept. missing that .4 sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Definitely going to be a warm first week of November, looks like it peaks around the 4th and 5th of the month. H5 anomalies off the GEFS gefs_z500a_exnamer_31.png H85 anomalies off the GEFS gefs_t850a_exnamer_31.png big heat, great look forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Pray for the following 4 to be as well. they will be, think 11-12 type winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 November seems likely to be snow free in all if SNE. As warm a month of Nov as we've ever seen That seems like a lot of hyperbole. You think record November warmth it seems? The snow-free call is interesting...as all it takes is a trough around November 27th or something to deliver a couple inches...and there is no way no one can make that call right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Looks like we can shatter that 2011 record of 46.9 degrees in ORH for Nov, that would be beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 big heat, great look forward to it. Both GEFS and EPS have a little cool down to normal or even slightly below in the Day 10-12 range, but then rebounds back up above normal for the end of the runs. They've been fairly consistent in that going forward...a real warm first week of the month, then a few days of normal to slightly below around the 10th, before warming back up for mid-month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 That seems like a lot of hyperbole. You think record November warmth it seems? The snow-free call is interesting...as all it takes is a trough around November 27th or something to deliver a couple inches...and there is no way no one can make that call right now. No snow in November is pretty much the norm down here. Lets do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Both GEFS and EPS have a little cool down to normal or even slightly below in the Day 10-12 range, but then rebounds back up above normal for the end of the runs. They've been fairly consistent in that going forward...a real warm first week of the month, then a few days of normal to slightly below around the 10th, before warming back up for mid-month. Agree 100% its going to be torch from now until April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 No snow in November is pretty much the norm down here. Lets do it. Think you'll tie the futility record of 0.00" in November? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Think you'll tie the futility record of 0.00" in November? lol. record breaking heat and no snow is a lock, wouldn't want to disagree with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 That seems like a lot of hyperbole. You think record November warmth it seems? The snow-free call is interesting...as all it takes is a trough around November 27th or something to deliver a couple inches...and there is no way no one can make that call right now. Of course nobody can make that call with any accuracy. But he doesn't post without hyperbole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 How's it any different than Gunx calling for snow and cold mid and late month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 How's it any different than Gunx calling for snow and cold mid and late month? well first off I said colder end of the month and possible snowstorm first week of Dec. Just wanted to get the facts out before you continue a non truth Warm couple of weeks. some pretty big sigs end of Nov. first week of Dec turn to much colder possible snowstorm. Then turn to much milder mid Dec, Period to watch in Dec seems around Christmas for a big ticket interior snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 How's it any different than Gunx calling for snow and cold mid and late month? Making a specific call for snow though (such as an entire snowless month), is an exercise in futility. No one could possibly make that determination, because even if the month is +10, you could get that one day cold shot deliver a couple inches of overrunning or something before a warm front lifts back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Making a specific call for snow though (such as an entire snowless month), is an exercise in futility. No one could possibly make that determination, because even if the month is +10, you could get that one day cold shot deliver a couple inches of overrunning or something before a warm front lifts back north. Please don't quote that lie. I never said that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Please don't quote that lie. I never said that lol acknowledged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 How's it any different than Gunx calling for snow and cold mid and late month? It's not any different, although I also acknowledge that he didn't say cold and snow mid month, at all. If you think the pattern will remain hostile to any chances for snow through November, then go ahead and say that. But don't pretend you know what Feb and March have in store, 'cause you don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 I posted this Oct 22nd for the late Nov Early Dec period .... this is what I think 5 h anomalies should be like from late Nov to first part of Dec this is Todays CFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2015 Author Share Posted October 29, 2015 Good stuff, Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Long range forecasts 8===============> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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