Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Euro warms up the East with deep trough in west same as last few runs 2m temps in the 20s overnight with low 40 during the day enjoy the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Still have quite a head pic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 cold Turkey leftovers weekend, best with toast, gravy stuffing I make paninis out of all that, plus a thin slice of apple, cheddar and cranberry. Unbeatable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 It's been a weak one for sure. Nothing like 2003. Northern lights were amazing in oswego. 2002-2003 was the first time I ever saw the lights. Some overnight camping trip with my "dorm" from ITH. To this day I still don't know where we ended up, just that it was north of SYR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 2002-2003 was the first time I ever saw the lights. Some overnight camping trip with my "dorm" from ITH. To this day I still don't know where we ended up, just that it was north of SYR. Shocked you even remember the northern lights on that trip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 yuck ... never could get cranberry sauce and turkey into a sammich without hesitation, but that's me. in fact, i pretty much detest mixing fruit with meat in the same anything. some people do pineapple on pizza? egh... gag 12z operational gfs: it's interesting how it looks like a much better fit for cdc's 00z pna/epo bar graphs. they don't run the derivative off the 12z spread - that i'm aware... but the 00z operational didn't look very well fitted to its own ensemble mean. this 12z does. could mean one of two things ... the euro op. might be the last to bite into a signal that takes deeper heights out of the southwest at any time range longer than 5 days, and in total, maybe the 00z american fields and this 12z oper version are in all an emerging script flip on the pattern. ... or, nothing. the models are meandering per climo to do so during autumn, and it could all just be bullcrap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 2002-2003 was the first time I ever saw the lights. Some overnight camping trip with my "dorm" from ITH. To this day I still don't know where we ended up, just that it was north of SYR. I was hoping this cycle would have similar "downward slide" activity like last one. Everyone remembers the 2003 fun, but the actual peak was March 2000. The actual peak looks to have had a lot of moderate events but nothing extreme. Sucks we didn't have the data we have now for the 1989 solar max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Relax man is was a comparison not a prediction and worry like you lol, Your snowstorm went poof on the Euro, will it come back tonight? I think so, how about you? What do you say? or are you going to hem haw until the day of? lol I'm just joking with you....I never predicted an 82-83 either. The records were what they were. Just noticed when a similar comparison to a poor winter comes up its voodoo and worrying, but when its a comparison to a good winter its fine to comment and speculate on it. That's all. No biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 I make paninis out of all that, plus a thin slice of apple, cheddar and cranberry. Unbeatable. Sweet, Italian bread toasted would make it. I am going to try it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 lol I'm just joking with you....I never predicted an 82-83 either. The records were what they were. Just noticed when a similar comparison to a poor winter comes up its voodoo and worrying, but when its a comparison to a good winter its fine to comment and speculate on it. That's all. No biggie. we kid but 82 ain't walking in your door Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 we kid but 82 ain't walking in your door No, no its not. I can't imagine anything like that happening soon, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 18z GFS with another solution for the weekend...chances for snow CNE/NNE. It looked almost like that coastal low wanted to go bonkers and get captured by the big low in Quebec, but then in the end gets pushed out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Rain with temps falling into 30's on Sunday E Ma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 That's snow to the coast in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 That's snow to the coast in SNEHope you're right but i don't see any support from the Canadians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I prefer the Europeans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I prefer the Europeans Big upgrade coming in March. I believe the op goes to 9 km and the EPS to 18 km. That means the EPS will almost be as high resolution as the op GFS. They really are the playground bully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Big upgrade coming in March. I believe the op goes to 9 km and the EPS to 18 km. That means the EPS will almost be as high resolution as the op GFS. They really are the playground bully. Wow. Will be interesting to see how well it performs. Maybe too much of a good thing with the resolution? Pretty soon DIT's house will have its own gridpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Looks like we may see some flakes this weekend hope it trends better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Wow. Will be interesting to see how well it performs. Maybe too much of a good thing with the resolution? Pretty soon DIT's house will have its own gridpoint. Yeah that is a bit concerning on resolution...I'm hoping it doesn't screw up the performance for larger scale cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Yeah that is a bit concerning on resolution...I'm hoping it doesn't screw up the performance for larger scale cyclogenesis. Nothing they do is without careful consideration on the 3-6 day window. After all it is the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting. That is their bread and butter, and they know it. I think they are going to have it running in parallel this winter (hopefully we have access to it). The GFS also will undergo an upgrade soon too. We finally got approval to spend some of that Sandy money, and I believe they are attempting to go to a pseudo 4DVAR. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Big upgrade coming in March. I believe the op goes to 9 km and the EPS to 18 km. That means the EPS will almost be as high resolution as the op GFS. They really are the playground bully. Is that down from 16 and 32km? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Nothing they do is without careful consideration on the 3-6 day window. After all it is the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting. That is their bread and butter, and they know it. I think they are going to have it running in parallel this winter (hopefully we have access to it). The GFS also will undergo an upgrade soon too. We finally got approval to spend some of that Sandy money, and I believe they are attempting to go to a pseudo 4DVAR. Baby steps. What was the comment you said the other day? About how the ensembles are run through bias correction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Is that down from 16 and 32km? Roughly 16 and 28 km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 What was the comment you said the other day? About how the ensembles are run through bias correction? So we have a pretty good climate database to know how far from history a model forecast is. But we have little idea of how far a model forecast deviates from the history of model forecasts. So modelers are now running what they call model climates (30 year histories of a model/ensemble). So now if the GEFS have a cold bias, and end up forecasting a cold run, is this significantly colder than what it normally forecasts or not. The GEFS have done this twice, ever, in the entire history of the ensemble. The ECMWF does this every two weeks. Basically the ECMWF has a near real-time bias check for its model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 So we have a pretty good climate database to know how far from history a model forecast is. But we have little idea of how far a model forecast deviates from the history of model forecasts. So modelers are now running what they call model climates (30 year histories of a model/ensemble). So now if the GEFS have a cold bias, and end up forecasting a cold run, is this significantly colder than what it normally forecasts or not. The GEFS have done this twice, ever, in the entire history of the ensemble. The ECMWF does this every two weeks. Basically the ECMWF has a near real-time bias check for its model. That is impressive. Wow. We definitely have some work to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 That is impressive. Wow. We definitely have some work to do. It's all about computing resources. We hope to get those new supercomputers which would help. But also do we really need 06/18z runs of the GFS and GEFS if we could focus on making really good 00/12z runs (a la the ECMWF)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 It's all about computing resources. We hope to get those new supercomputers which would help. But also do we really need 06/18z runs of the GFS and GEFS if we could focus on making really good 00/12z runs (a la the ECMWF)? It's hard to make a good case for arguing in favor of the off-hour runs IMHO. Off-hour runs are most valuable/useful very close to an event and we already have shorter term models that do this like the RGEM/NAM. We aren't going to change an 84 hour forecast very much if there was a huge shift on the 18z GFS...we all wait until the 00z Euro anyway to make a big change even if we didn't care too much about continuity at that time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 It's hard to make a good case for arguing in favor of the off-hour runs IMHO. Off-hour runs are most valuable/useful very close to an event and we already have shorter term models that do this like the RGEM/NAM. We aren't going to change an 84 hour forecast very much if there was a huge shift on the 18z GFS...we all wait until the 00z Euro anyway to make a big change even if we didn't care too much about continuity at that time range. There are definitely those higher than my pay grade arguing that those hours of model time are more valuable being put towards other things besides extra GFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I would be ok with ditching the off hour runs. Real time analysis along with hi res models can easily slide in to take it's place. I also don't think we are making major changes in longer range forecasts from an 18z or 6z model either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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