Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Not as deep, but it is a cutter pattern risk with no blocking, until the ridge near AK moves more to the east. Did they back off the cold pattern as much as the op did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Did they back off the cold pattern as much as the op did? They were warmer after day 8 like the op, but then cooled a bit after day 10. The GEFS ensembles definitely are warmer than the EC ensembles. It just looks like a lot of volatility.I certainly do not have high confidence despite the overall change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 They were warmer after day 8 like the op, but then cooled a bit after day 10. The GEFS ensembles definitely are warmer than the EC ensembles. It just looks like a lot of volatility.I certainly do not have high confidence despite the overall change. Starting to get that feeling that the advertised pattern to colder isn't happening. Strong Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Starting to get that feeling that the advertised pattern to colder isn't happening. Strong Nino The whole flow is changing. How long and to what extent in your backyard is not known. I already spelled this out a few times. We will have cold shots as the flow changes. Weenies gonna ween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Interesting look to Euro Ens LR , thats a nice pattern for a cold dump and potential East Coast mischief. The one eye pig is no where in sight. Should get very interesting Turkey day on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Spent the weekend in Vermont..hiked to the Bromley summit. 4-5" solid up there with a bitter cold wind. We had snow in Londonderry too which was a nice surprise. Stratton looked like it got a nice event too on Sat AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 One says one thing.. One says something completely different lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 One says one thing.. One says something completely different lol I don't think they said different things. Eps relaxed in the 6-10 and then got colder in the 11-15. I thought 11-15 was not bad. But as Scott says, volatility. We buckle up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Definitely trending towards a less amplified look and faster cold shot late weekend and early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I don't think they said different things. Eps relaxed in the 6-10 and then got colder in the 11-15. I thought 11-15 was not bad. But as Scott says, volatility. We buckle up. It's amazing how we go through this every cold season lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Interesting look to Euro Ens LR , thats a nice pattern for a cold dump and potential East Coast mischief. The one eye pig is no where in sight. Should get very interesting Turkey day on. It's there on the ensembles as it tries to push back to AK at the end. However if the EC is right, the models have been rushing it. The GEFS are definitely not as nice as the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 A synoptic snowfall before or on Thanksgiving is looking highely unlikely. Day 11-15 shows promise but let the buyer beware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I don't think they said different things. Eps relaxed in the 6-10 and then got colder in the 11-15. I thought 11-15 was not bad. But as Scott says, volatility. We buckle up.The worry is the first shot next week is relaxing and backing off.. So does the one afterwards follow suit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Decent rains later this week Repeat of last week? Two full days of misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 It's there on the ensembles as it tries to push back to AK at the end. However if the EC is right, the models have been rushing it. The GEFS are definitely not as nice as the EPS.interestingly the GEFS is advertising a chilly pattern post this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I don't think they said different things. Eps relaxed in the 6-10 and then got colder in the 11-15. I thought 11-15 was not bad. But as Scott says, volatility. We buckle up.yes exactly nice looks end of month hopefully carrying over to first week of Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 A synoptic snowfall before or on Thanksgiving is looking highely unlikely. Day 11-15 shows promise but let the buyer beware.on schedule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Definitely trending towards a less amplified look and faster cold shot late weekend and early next week. Sure, and last week on wed and thur the forecast was for a stretch this week of very Mild temps, low to mid 60's for most of the week. That is certainly not happening either. Buyer be ware is right!! Nothing carved in Stone a week out at all!! Change is coming...we just don't know to what degree yet, as Scott has pointed out very plainly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 It's amazing how we go through this every cold season lol. My goodness we do...and it's so bothersome too. Worry or Excitement changes nothing in nature/weather. You would think one would know, that a model run for 10 days out showing something you like/or dislike, that's flopping back and forth as well, would not be taken to heart, as often as it is. I realize we all want some excitement/semblance of some type of winter weather(I want it too), but worrying constantly, and Whining with each and every run, is just infantile!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 One says one thing.. One says something completely different lol No, the only one saying one thing, and then saying another is You Kevin. One day you say "We Snow." The next day you are worrying there won't be a snow event, or cold air around. Chill out! Worrying and flip flopping constantly gets you nowhere, except frustrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 We meteorologically bipolar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 If you're looking for sustained cold and snowy wet dreams to persist on modeling, step away for a while, and rejoin us after the holidays. For now, we benign, we volatile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 No, the only one saying one thing, and then saying another is You Kevin. One day you say "We Snow." The next day you are worrying there won't be a snow event, or cold air around. Chill out! Worrying and flip flopping constantly gets you nowhere, except frustrated.We wonder about you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 We wonder about you We laugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 We laugh so it begins, I liked your Meteorological Bipolar post. Metpolar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 so it begins, I liked your Meteorological Bipolar post. Metpolar? Biponimbus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 We wonder about you lol. Good one. But really Kevin... don't worry so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 If you're looking for sustained cold and snowy wet dreams to persist on modeling, step away for a while, and rejoin us after the holidays. For now, we benign, we volatile. You can already tell the entire tenor of this forum going forward is going to revolve around those who are very confident in February and March vs. those starting to lose as we head through the first half of the winter, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Just ignore Kevin's emotional interpretation of ensemble reports by mets and other hobbyists here. It's his own bizarre way of dealing with uncertainty. If you read the posts they are pretty clear....Euro ensembles trended a bit warmer for us around D7-8 with a deeper SW trough...but then colder beyond that. It would make sense if the pattern is slowed/amplified a bit. You get a -EPO/Western trough setup which keeps the east warmer, but then eventually the cold does reach us...the slower progression keeps the -EPO around a bit longer....for how long is uncertain. GEFS are different than the Euro ens. GEFS bring us back to a mild pattern in early December while the Euro ens keep it a bit colder, but I wouldn't exactly call it a frigid pattern. You are going to see model swings in the medium to long range...it's part of meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 16, 2015 Author Share Posted November 16, 2015 You can already tell the entire tenor of this forum going forward is going to revolve around those who are very confident in February and March vs. those starting to lose as we head through the first half of the winter, haha. Second half of January could be good, too.....but I'm much more confident RE Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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