Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Have to love the way the PV gets stretched towards Eastern Canada allowing the EPO ridge and a polar flow. Interesting times for a while in that period outlined in my 8 week forecast. Maybe a week earlier than I originally thought but have to think something pops up end of Month beginning of Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Well the rumors of the death of the transient good pattern may have been exaggerated...lol. GEFS following suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 We snow it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Well the rumors of the death of the transient good pattern may have been exaggerated...lol. GEFS following suit. Yeah it tries to shut the pattern down, but almost a little reload at the end of the ensemble run. But obviously out in clown range, so we'll have to see how it looks going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Yeah Jerry - I remember the 1977-1978 press about the storminess in Cali - tho only vaguely as I was too little to really understand it much. I vividly also recall the "Cleveland Super bomb" blizzard of Jan 25-28 that year, that took out whole families due to 30" of snow and routine 95 mph wind gusts... If you put that sucker on the eastern tip of LI it would dwarf Feb 5-7 of that year but who's contesting ... Anyway, crazy year of fantastic winter meteorology... Also, the Pineapple Express event of ...I think it was 1980 is likely related to the El Nino, albeit in attenuation by that time. Interesting 12z GFS with the deep range in deep continental cold and at least one significant snow storm to end TG week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Well the rumors of the death of the transient good pattern may have been exaggerated...lol. GEFS following suit. Lower heights do build, but a bit closer to dateline in the Bering Sea which helps the PNA a bit. Transient doesn't have to mean only 5-7 days or so...it's more of a way of communicating that it may not last long or be stable. However, I think tropical forcing based on EC VP 200mb is shifting eastward slowly. That may also have a say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Where's NIno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Where's NIno Look at water vapor from east of Hawaii into the south. It's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Where's NIno Didn't show up until January in 98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Didn't show up until January in 98.because 1/2 exploded over 28 c, aint happening this year,peak and falling, Subsurface cold heading east. This is just beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Look at water vapor from east of Hawaii into the south. It's there.Nina pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Nina pattern I think it will go back to more classic Nino in December. But, if we can prevent a big hole in the GOAk..or even weak -NAO ridging...it may not be bad. Really tough to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 I think it will go back to more classic Nino in December. But, if we can prevent a big hole in the GOAk..or even weak -NAO ridging...it may not be bad. Really tough to say.for sure, the canonical folks are in for a surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 for sure, the canonical folks are in for a surprise Well it can revert back pretty quick. I'd hold back the MJO wave you have in your Carhartts for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Well it can revert back pretty quick. I'd hold back the MJO wave you have in your Carhartts for now. I think this year is going to provide huge surprises to those who are myopically nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Clipper forming on the 12z EURO @ 144 hours, let's see if it can do something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 I think this year is going to provide huge surprises to those who are myopically nino I don't think people are being myopic...I think it's respect for the Nino. We all know other factors can get in the way of analogs...but I think you at least have to respect this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 I don't think people are being myopic...I think it's respect for the Nino. We all know other factors can get in the way of analogs...but I think you at least have to respect this event.there are multiple posters and professional forecasts that are straight 97-98- you have to be living under a rock if you haven't seen the DIT like forecasts straight super nino climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 there are multiple posters and professional forecasts that are straight 97-98- you have to be living under a rock if you haven't seen the DIT like forecasts straight super nino climo I have seen a lot say it is not 97-98 too. I think those going warm are respecting the strong, basin wide event and what it can do to the atmosphere, based on what we know. It's really early in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Verbatim it doesn't really do anything, but I'd keep an eye on that clipper type wave Day 6-7 for NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 I have seen a lot say it is not 97-98 too. I think those going warm are respecting the strong, basin wide event and what it can do to the atmosphere, based on what we know. It's really early in the game.November Eurosip came out today, didn't it?.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 November Eurosip came out today, didn't it?.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Either I missed something, or I should be glad I missed something. That bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Either I missed something, or I should be glad I missed something. That bad? No, they actually shifted the low a bit west towards the Aleutians. Not a huge change, but any little bit helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 No, they actually shifted the low a bit west towards the Aleutians. Not a huge change, but any little bit helps.Oh, thanks for subduing the paranoia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 No, they actually shifted the low a bit west towards the Aleutians. Not a huge change, but any little bit helps.guranteed there wont be twenty tweets by the Energy sector and our local TV mets about that tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Decent rains later this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Seems like after looking at it more.it's the Euro bias of dropping energy/tough into SW US..my guess is the ENS don't do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Seems like after looking at it more.it's the Euro bias of dropping energy/tough into SW US..my guess is the ENS don't do that Not as deep, but it is a cutter pattern risk with no blocking, until the ridge near AK moves more to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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