CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Did he use the term in the wrong way or does it not fit with the idea it is meant for public consumption. It's just ridiculous. I don't even know how or why he is communicating the way he is. I'm pretty sure nearly all of the public scratched their head after reading that paragraph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 It's just ridiculous. I don't even know how or why he is communicating the way he is. I'm pretty sure nearly all of the public scratched their head after reading that paragraph. By no means am I a grammar expert either, but I'm pretty sure he means the amplified pattern is parent to the isallobaric gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Where did Nino go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Another question of do people know their climo. PWM and CON average first accumulation is 11/19, BOS 11/28, PVD 12/1. They've all had to wait until the second week of January for their latest first snowfall. So anything before turkey day truly is gravy. Or trully cranberry sauce? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Where did Nino go? IO forcing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 IO forcing?we got that MOJO workin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Rain and then dry cold like any good Nina without blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 It's an interesting back and forth with models from 12z-00z. While it does look like the vortex tries to rebuild...it was certainly post-poned at 00z with much better -EPO. This is usually the case when multiple factors are involved in changing a pattern. I think we can summarize things in a few points 1) The pattern will change. The H5 pattern is reshuffling. Fact, not opinion. How long it lasts is unknown, but best guess is that it will be transient. Tough to assign an actual length of time. 2) Details obviously to be determined. The cold dump may be centered in the Plains which could allow for some cutters until gradually the cold shifts more eastward. 3) Overall a potentially storm time with all types of storms appearing on the table. I would caution about being too excited for snow in your backyard, but we have a legit chance of our first widespread wintry event for New England as a whole. Naturally NNE favored, but not limited to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Snow? Maybe. maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Maybe. maybe not. Seems it's in and out unfortunately As cold as it may be 11/22-12/1, signs continue to point to warm up ~12/1. Note AK ridging replaced by low heights 2 retweets2 likes Reply Retweet 2 Like 2 More CapeCodWeather.Net @capecodweather 6m6 minutes ago @EdValleeWx yeah seems that way. and from then on… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Euro does show a chance at snow next Sunday/Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Seems it's in and out unfortunately As cold as it may be 11/22-12/1, signs continue to point to warm up ~12/1. Note AK ridging replaced by low heights 2 retweets2 likes Reply Retweet 2 Like 2 More CapeCodWeather.Net @capecodweather 6m6 minutes ago @EdValleeWx yeah seems that way. and from then on… Yes I think we go back to a more milder regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Euro does show a chance at snow next Sunday/Monday Not verbatim, unless you are in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Maybe. maybe not. That there is the epitome of an ambiguous statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 That there is the epitome of an ambiguous statement. I think we all should understand that details beyond a week out are a crap shoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Weatherbell snow cover maps on day 10-15 of the 51 Euro Ensemble members have like 6-7 really weenieish type solutions and probably like 35 percent showing some type of snowfall by the end of day 15. Edit: Probably more like 4-5 weeineish for interior SNE, with a couple more in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Pretty much meh for a week or so but then things should get more volatile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Yeah I am intrigued at the pattern. At the very least, we should see some more interesting weather. It's been so dull..I'm trying not to let the recent boredom make a pattern more interesting than it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Yes I think we go back to a more milder regime. Euro ens were not quite as enthusiastic at bringing back the AK vortex as the GEFS. The heights are significantly lower at D15 on GEFS than Euro in that region...so I'm hopeful that we can start December with a semblance of cross polar flow. Even if it's weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Euro ens were not quite as enthusiastic at bringing back the AK vortex as the GEFS. The heights are significantly lower at D15 on GEFS than Euro in that region...so I'm hopeful that we can start December with a semblance of cross polar flow. Even if it's weak. Yeah there is a large difference between the two. I think at some point after early December it may revert back to less cold air dumpage into the US..but I feel like to what extent and when is certainly debatable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Nice GFS cutter through the lakes thanksgiving week turning the NAO for a spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Yeah I am intrigued at the pattern. At the very least, we should see some more interesting weather. It's been so dull..I'm trying not to let the recent boredom make a pattern more interesting than it is. This may typify the winter, too... El Numb- nuts may redirect action west of 100. But heh, maybe the Colorado river will start flowing again. Have you guys seen those pictures of inland aquatics? Pretty shocking to see Lake Mead like, down 200 feet and all those abandoned ghostly piers with signs policing out of the sere desert dust that read, "No mooring allowed past this point!" Okay - I also think it would just be fascinating from geological perspective if Cally could completely flip the headline scope in just a single season. Come on now... heads out of assess for just a moment, and think about that. But oy vay! At what cost? I wonder if that really means we sacrifice back east, by being on the pendulum point of R-wave pulses ... sitting hopelessly on the fulcrum of the atmospheres teeter tot: if you don't get 'why', just think sh!t rarely happens.. Maybe not. It could also just mean while swings between deep blue cold, and boundary events before jumping to 60 F ...rinse repeat. If the EPO comes back, and the El Nino does its thing, a whiplash winter would intuitive be a wonderful fit for those too hugely disparate/opposing forces. Keeping with the metaphor talk ... I just think that E of 100 or thereabouts, there's less 'locking' of the pattern due to those more dominating influencing waning out to oblivion, for having distance escape the sourcing. Those dominators are over the Pacific this year - and the million dollar question still only answered with educated guess work. But back here in the E, this is not the Pacific... oh, we transitively benefit or suffer for it, sure. Much of the time, where the snap fit fails you get the 'unmanned fire-hose' spraying errantly in both directions.. Sometimes looking tasting on the models, and gaiety in posting tenor; at other times, not so much. Shocked would be too strong a word, but I'd definitely be eye-brow raised if we locked into one of those 45 day persistent cold and snowy appeals this time, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 This may typify the winter, too... El Numb- nuts may redirect action west of 100. But heh, maybe the Colorado river will start flowing again. Have you guys seen those pictures of inland aquatics? Pretty shocking to see Lake Mead like, down 200 feet and all those abandoned ghostly piers with signs policing out of the sere desert dust that read, "No mooring allowed past this point!" Okay - I also think it would just be fascinating from geological perspective if Cally could completely flip the headline scope in just a single season. Come on now... heads out of assess for just a moment, and think about that. But oy vay! At what cost? I wonder if that really means we sacrifice back east, by being on the pendulum point of R-wave pulses ... sitting hopelessly on the fulcrum of the atmospheres teeter tot: if you don't get 'why', just think sh!t rarely happens.. Maybe not. It could also just mean while swings between deep blue cold, and boundary events before jumping to 60 F ...rinse repeat. If the EPO comes back, and the El Nino does its thing, a whiplash winter would intuitive be a wonderful fit for those too hugely disparate/opposing forces. Check out the California drought of the 1970s that turned on a dime during the big 1977-78 Nino. It was fun being there for that although I endured the sting of missing the 78 sne blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Through 11/14/15: BOS: +7.1 ORH: +7.0 BDL: +6.7 PVD: +6.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Last night was only my third time at 32 or below IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Last night was only my third time at 32 or below IIRC.have memories of years not getting below 32 until mid Dec. More convinced than ever a ratter is off the table. Normal works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Through 11/14/15: BOS: +7.1 ORH: +7.0 BDL: +6.7 PVD: +6.0 Record warmest first two weeks of November for the mountains. MMNV1 with 2015 leading the way in highest average temps up to this point. Departures: BTV: +8.5 MVL: +8.4 Mansfield: +10.2 Even dispite that they just had an 8" snow event, too. It can snow in awful patterns. Funny thing is last year was really cold to this date, and snowfall is about even on the season to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Euro ens were not quite as enthusiastic at bringing back the AK vortex as the GEFS. The heights are significantly lower at D15 on GEFS than Euro in that region...so I'm hopeful that we can start December with a semblance of cross polar flow. Even if it's weak.00z EPS raised hgts out there over 12z too and you can see the resulting deep trough over E CAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 00z EPS raised hgts out there over 12z too and you can see the resulting deep trough over E CAN. image.png Thrown in the weenie GFS op too. The 00z ensembles over the last few days have been better....12z...worse. That's a classic model run reaction when things are in flux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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