Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 We had a SE ridge plague that lasted several years from ~ '97 through 2000, and the only thing prevalent during that era was a whopper warm ENSO event. keep that in mind - Day 8 on the Euro looks like it would be a heck of a thunderstorm day of all things... Nice flat but potent v-max ripping through central New England, while we warm sector in a WSW theta-e/wind. Obviously diabatic heating is a challenge in early Novie; to mention the lengthy lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Yup.. The idea of a SE ridge in a strong Nino happened once.. It can happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 We had a SE ridge plague that lasted several years from ~ '97 through 2000, and the only thing prevalent during that era was a whopper warm ENSO event. keep that in mind Well 1997-1998 was warm but it had low heights in the southeast. Definite classic El Niño signal in the south that winter. 1998-1999 and 1999-2000 winters were both moderate to potent La Ninas...so any southeast ridging in those winters would make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Yup.. The idea of a SE ridge in a strong Nino happened once.. It can happen again. Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 97/98 winter did not have a SE ridge,dispell that Tippy myth right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 I'd be more concerned about a zonal flow with marginal air masses or a unfavorable AO/NAO domain than a massive SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Nope. SERIDGEFAIL.gif Tip said it did..so we took it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27, 2015 Author Share Posted October 27, 2015 Yup.. The idea of a SE ridge in a strong Nino happened once.. It can happen again. You have just lost it, man......going, going, gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Maybe. Though I have a sneaking suspicion you may be retracting that comment come late Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27, 2015 Author Share Posted October 27, 2015 Maybe. Though I have a sneaking suspicion you may be retracting that comment come late Jan Like you protracted the nickel/dime comment latter Jan of last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Like you protracted the nickel/dime comment latter Jan of last year?i was wrong and I admitted it. There's a very real chance you're wrong with your big winter ideas this year and likewise a real chance I'm wrong. No one knows except the good Lord above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 i was wrong and I admitted it. There's a very real chance you're wrong with your big winter ideas this year and likewise a real chance I'm wrong. No one knows except the good Lord aboveDT? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27, 2015 Author Share Posted October 27, 2015 i was wrong and I admitted it. There's a very real chance you're wrong with your big winter ideas this year and likewise a real chance I'm wrong. No one knows except the good Lord above My numbers won't be out for a week or two. I'm obviously not going ratter, but..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 My numbers won't be out for a week or two. I'm obviously not going ratter, but..... If you're not with him, you're against him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Nice 982 bomb off the Jersey coast on the Euro Control today on day 12-13 with nice pretty pink colors on the weatherbell snow maps.Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Nice 982 bomb off the Jersey coast on the Euro Control today on day 12-13 with nice pretty pink colors on the weatherbell snow maps.Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Man, that is a beast of a SE ridge for early November on all the ensembles. It's so weird...it looks like a full blown La Nina pattern with an Aleutian ridge and a big SE ridge. Looks like perhaps some change on the far horizon near mid-month on EC ensembles, but those can sometimes take a while to actually manifest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Man, that is a beast of a SE ridge for early November on all the ensembles. It's so weird...it looks like a full blown La Nina pattern with an Aleutian ridge and a big SE ridge. Looks like perhaps some change on the far horizon near mid-month on EC ensembles, but those can sometimes take a while to actually manifest. Yeah the Pacific is definitely not what I would expect. Kind of an elongated Pacific Jet. Definitely more Nina like. It's a bit warm in western Canada, but I'd say east of the Canadian Prairies, it's cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Yeah the Pacific is definitely not what I would expect. Kind of an elongated Pacific Jet. Definitely more Nina like. It's a bit warm in western Canada, but I'd say east of the Canadian Prairies, it's cooler. It sets up a gradient pattern...like we'd see in winter but further north given the time of the year. But between NE and Quebec there could be some pretty crazy gradients in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Here's a good visual of it....definitely a chilly pattern for central and eastern Canada, but warm for us...but it could also produce a sneaky Scooter high or two pressing down from Quebec in that gradient to spell Indian Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Well 1997-1998 was warm but it had low heights in the southeast. Definite classic El Niño signal in the south that winter. 1998-1999 and 1999-2000 winters were both moderate to potent La Ninas...so any southeast ridging in those winters would make sense. No, there was more ridging there; it was classically compressed, is what it was. Those re-analysis products don't take geopotential gradient into account. They're just taking the scalar depth at those heights, but when you have balanced flow screaming in the means, that is a ridge there that is being pressed S. That feature f with synoptic storm/forecasts quite a bit. That's when/where I stole the turn of phrase, '...At least excuse imaginable' which was formulated in NCEP discussions, and it pertained to the fact that the flow in the SE could not seem to ever 'droop' during that era. You really need that, or else despite the 'appeal' of the 'curves' in the flow, you're dealing with more ridging than may be/is readily identified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Over/under 80 degrees next week for BDL/BOS? With NW flow..and downsloping and a torched Canada.. I'll say at least one day hits 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Over/under 80 degrees next week for BDL/BOS? With NW flow..and downsloping and a torched Canada.. I'll say at least one day hits 80 The GFS never has daytime 850s above 10C at BDL so that'd be pretty hard to do assuming it's close to correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Maybe even 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Maybe even 90. You don't see a day or 2 of 78-80 as possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 The GFS never has daytime 850s above 10C at BDL so that'd be pretty hard to do assuming it's close to correct. 80F (27C) would be +17C on top of those H85 temps. It's easy to do in the warm season, but naso much in early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 A nice break from the Nino dominant regime is clearly evident in the 6-15 day here. Likely related to the intraseasonal wave entering the warm Indian Ocean and interfering with the Nino signal (for now). Clear drop in AAM in the forecast to coincide: (warning: this gefs AAM forecast always has a negative bias because ensemble means naturally trend more zonal with time) Im eyeing *potential* for a little cold period when/if that intraseasonal wave can propagate further east and onto the classic Nina regions and into far west pac. Weeklies would tell you otherwise though as its just pure ugliness through week 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 80F (27C) would be +17C on top of those H85 temps. It's easy to do in the warm season, but naso much in early November. Right. I mean I did the math out if you had a height of 1.55 km let's say for 850 then if you mixed dry adiabatically you'd be about 78F. Not that easy to mix that high though in November as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Snowy pattern for the Rockies next 2 weeks. Congrats Denver on multiple early season snowfalls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 That pattern is not a torch for eastern Canada. If and when we do try to force a better +PNA..it's possible there might be money in the bank when it does happen. Definitely a screwy pattern heading through mid November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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