CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 I think there is a chance it may not start out immediately that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Well at least we appear to get a spell of wintry chances starting and thanksgiving. Whether it's a few days or longer is in question but at least for a spell, it's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Well this looks awful . Not unexpected ,, but hopefully incorrect. @MJVentrice: Looking into early December, holy +NAO/+AO/+EPO. Supports extremely warm start to December o/ N. America and Europe. https://t.co/lZkuikuTiq Cfs lol, its shown the same every week for 6 months, why any respected Met refers to that garbage is beyond me, wait a day it will change, go back and look at what it had for turkey day week, ya know the week he said would be in the 70's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Well at least we appear to get a spell of wintry chances starting and thanksgiving. Whether it's a few days or longer is in question but at least for a spell, it's coming. a 7-10 day period to get something to pop before we revert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 December is pretty warm on all models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 December is pretty warm on all models. hopefully the last week of Nov and first week of Dec are our chance before we revert. I don't trust modeling this year at LR, seems we will need to stay inside 10-15 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 The fact that this week went from massive 588 heights and 70+ to 40's on Tu and Wed on modeling does lend pause to any long term stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 The fact that this week went from massive 588 heights and 70+ to 40's on Tu and Wed on modeling does lend pause to any long term stuff There is a volatility factor with such huge temp contrasts existing across the globe. Should be fun, whether we end up on the good or bad side , going to be exciting times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 There is a volatility factor with such huge temp contrasts existing across the globe. Should be fun, whether we end up on the good or bad side , going to be exciting times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 The fact that this week went from massive 588 heights and 70+ to 40's on Tu and Wed on modeling does lend pause to any long term stuff Short range changes, but long term signal has not and will not change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Short range changes, but long term signal has not and will not change. pretty bold Nostradamus like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 pretty bold Nostradamus like Long tern ENSO? How is that going to change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Long tern ENSO? How is that going to change? you are so cryptic sometimes I thought you were talking about sensible weather, you referred to short term changes, ENSO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 you are so cyrptic sometimes I thought you were talking about sensible weather You, yourself said we are going to revert back. My point is that ENSO is driving the bus and you can throw in a strong PV up in the upper troposphere and stratosphere. I'm not sold on this being more than a temporary change in the pattern...but maybe I am wrong. I didn't think what I said was cryptic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 December is pretty warm on all models. Haha, nice. I love this version of Scott - rampaging contrarian ... If he could be clad in white and black brandishing a whacking ruler, ready to thump knuckles while yelling "No" at the instant the bun attempts to concoct an aromatic vision out of the garbled data-turds we're really left with, ...he'd do it. Can't say I blame 'im. I, too, roll eyes at more than half the content I entertain myself with when swingin' by this site over an hour to kill. It's a loathsome Saturday morning, mocked by the sounds of proverbial jet turbines in a pattern that's promising nothing.. Did anyone ever ask if the winds ever lied? Today is resounding, whizzing, whirling, white-noise frenzies yes. In one to two minute bursts, the bluster out of doors is enough to rival a Donald Trump melt-down; yet, neither has a clue or a hope of actually substantiating any of their insinuation. Yesterday, I charged the models with the onus to verify something in the late middle range/extended; namely, as it pertains to these [at last] colder signals out there in time. We are in a push-back pattern; though not so obvious, but tending to do so a little. It's when you're always lubed up and gin happy for the extended range of sloping teleconnectors and operations visions of grandeur, but never get there. How long does it take to wake up and realize all those hopes and dreams for a better future are a process in deception. Weird, almost to the point of creepy how the models seem to sync up with everything else in your life that has nothing to do with the weather. Haha. Ah, we'll see. I could see Ventrice being proven brilliant as much as a synoptic flop for that idea. Firstly, I don't see where he is getting a demonstrative signal for the polarward indices. The AO has every member fragmented ranging from barely positive SD, to +3 in range. One could argue that's a huge signal, but they don't know how to consume the data when it is delivered the way the CPC has it. The individual members being in larger spread, for those that have multiple decades of experience using them, can just as often herald a major shift one way or the other. Moreover, the sub-polar fields of the EPO and NAO have been wobbling up and down, positive to negative over the last four days, indicating a split in the field and some potential for blocking nodes to pop off in the 60th parallel. The operational runs showing a cooling continental domain in general is not a horrible fit for that... Secondly, it's been warm, so the persistence requires the onus mentioned above; so Stockholm Syndrome requires a cynical resting state regarding any projection into the end of the month's pattern. That tends to deconstruct any hope the previous paragraph, however analytic and logically sound. However rational that is proven not to be, sometimes those tingly sensations in your backside are just your unconscious soul realizing that the space-time continuum just has it in for your ass and wants do horrible things to it... I bet if science et al tried hard enough, they could discover a General Theory of Relative butt-bangin'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 You, yourself said we are going to revert back. My point is that ENSO is driving the bus and you can throw in a strong PV up in the upper troposphere and stratosphere. I'm not sold on this being more than a temporary change in the pattern...but maybe I am wrong. I didn't think what I said was cryptic. I think we revert to warm again in Dec but I don't trust modeling that torches all of Dec. I disagree about Enso being the bus driver, there are many players . I am only talking about our neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Well there are two issues. One is the pattern change and the other is how long it lasts. I think it's clear we will change to come colder weather..but how long is up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 You, yourself said we are going to revert back. My point is that ENSO is driving the bus and you can throw in a strong PV up in the upper troposphere and stratosphere. I'm not sold on this being more than a temporary change in the pattern...but maybe I am wrong. I didn't think what I said was cryptic. Siberia might have a say in that strong PV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 I think we revert to warm again in Dec but I don't trust modeling that torches all of Dec. I disagree about Enso being the bus driver, there are many players . I am only talking about our neck of the woods. I don't see how it isn't a long term driver when it's in uncharted territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Siberia might have a say in that strong PV It gets attacked every winter. That doesn't mean squat to me right now unless we see stronger bombardment and more of a split or displacement. I also would entertain the idea of December as being less of a warm signal...at least to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Last November we bootlegged our way to below normal....kind of like this upcoming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 It gets attacked every winter. That doesn't mean squat to me right now unless we see stronger bombardment and more of a split or displacement. I also would entertain the idea of December as being less of a warm signal...at least to start. The elongation of the PV and attack happens and it can reload, however the influence of Siberian highs might be a bus driver too. Quite the battle zone setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Last November we bootlegged our way to below normal....kind of like this upcoming week. I keep thinking back to your Denver visit last year and how November rolled after that then of course Dec sucked, God this is so much better convo than temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 The elongation of the PV and attack happens and it can reload, however the influence of Siberian highs might be a bus driver too. Quite the battle zone setting up. Yes, the pattern has been a bit more favorable for that. However, I think we need to continue to see more disruption as I am not sold on this breaking up so soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Yes, the pattern has been a bit more favorable for that. However, I think we need to continue to see more disruption as I am not sold on this breaking up so soon. agree totally just nice to see it happen, something that did not occur in Nov 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Last November we bootlegged our way to below normal....kind of like this upcoming week. If you mean this conceptually only ... as in 'correct-able' then I agree. I think the last two weeks of the month will offset, perhaps considerably. But I'd like to see this month end up negative at places like the well mixed, 1,000 foot elevation Worcester climo site. Looking at the daily numbers over these past 13 days of the month are pretty shockingly positive. It's going (obviously) to take equal extremeness in negative departures just to make 0.00; while the pattern ahead is clearly one offering cooler incursions/changing the nature of mass transport over all, I'd be surprised if it offered that degree of compensation. We'll see... but here on ORH numbers lifted right off of KTANs climo interface: ...the 5th column from the left are the Departures. 1 57 44 51 6 14 0 T 0.0 M 12.4 22 230 M M 5 28 230 2 61 46 54 9 11 0 0.00 0.0 M 7.5 15 290 M M 0 21 290 3 67 41 54 10 11 0 0.00 0.0 M 9.6 18 220 M M 0 24 240 4 65 49 57 13 8 0 0.00 0.0 M 7.5 15 240 M M 0 19 230 5 70 50 60 16 5 0 0.00 0.0 M 16.1 26 240 M M 5 1 32 230 6 70 59 65 21 0 0 T 0.0 M 14.7 24 230 M M 6 35 230 7 62 43 53 10 12 0 0.00 0.0 M 14.1 29 290 M M 0 38 320 8 51 37 44 1 21 0 0.00 0.0 M 12.3 24 310 M M 0 32 290 9 55 34 45 2 20 0 0.00 0.0 M 10.0 16 250 M M 0 8 22 270 10 53 42 48 6 17 0 0.12 M M 8.5 15 30 M M 6 23 40 11 45 41 43 1 22 0 0.08 M M 12.9 21 20 M M 9 1 33 10 12 53 41 47 5 18 0 0.14 M M 8.9 21 240 M M 8 12 28 240 13 54 40 47 6 18 0 0.01 M M 18.8 29 270 M M 4 8 43 320 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 agree totally just nice to see it happen, something that did not occur in Nov 11 I am not a big fan of long term strat forecasting because it's usually not very good. However, I think there are some signs that it is getting a little distorted. But we have seen it do that, only to come back and consolidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Last Nov was below normal most of the month with some way AN days thrown in, it was cold from the get go, my work HDD data is totally opposite from this year. Also even the warm days were cloudy and energy was used. No comparison to this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 There is a subtle warming in the stratospheric hPa 50 depth over Siberia, days 7 through 10 on the GEFs mean. That's new... Could mean that some tendency for -EPO is out there ...way, way, way-way, out there... This type of warming is different than an SSW. Typically across the 35 years data set, SSW's don't occur until mid Dec at the earliest; most post Jan 1. Then they take two weeks to 20 days to downwell toward the tropopause, and that is the lag on -AO response. That's all a different phenomenon than what is described above. Further above might mean just generalized limiting of the stratospheric, PV depth by statically stabling thermodynamics - a bifurcation in the PV (split) would begin as warped/oblongation of the annular structure over the pole, ... think "kidney beaning", and it would have temperature signature of warming over one half of the domain space at very high altitudes. It's just hinted for the time being tho. It's going to take some time to cook, and this may only merely sniff changes actually not kicking in until xmass or beyond. Sometimes the GEFs mean, like them all, "rush" in large scale systemic changes once their physics are detectable at all. ..We all know that, just sayin' I have been monitoring this over the last month though and this is the first I have seen this (for now) weakly emergent signal: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 December is pretty warm on all models. CFS shows the 2nd half of December getting cold. You can delete these pictures if these are not allowed on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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