Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Exactly my point.....in other news, the DGEX has a white TDAY through xmas. LOL.... nice. the 18z GFS 'ensemble member ' is rollin in with a 500 mb look of a cold wave entering the NP... The lower latitudes of the EPO domain is favorable for a cooling Canadian shield D7 over all... Could be sniffing out the change seeing that as soon as D7... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Interesting ... it has a presentation of that 240 hour Euro idea, too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Maybe some snow showers for the higher terrain of parts of western SNE late tonight and tomorrow morning? Moderate to heavy snow falling at the southern tier spots SE of Buffalo, and snow now making it into the higher terrain of the Catskills. Models show enough cold air for Berkshires to go to snow showers after 6z, still should be some upslope moisture around until 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Maybe some snow showers for the higher terrain of parts of western SNE late tonight and tomorrow morning? Moderate to heavy snow falling at the southern tier spots SE of Buffalo, and snow now making it into the higher terrain of the Catskills. Models show enough cold air for Berkshires to go to snow showers after 6z, still should be some upslope moisture around until 12z. Yeah I mentioned yesterday that there Could be some snow mixed in even further east if moisture made it. Haven't looked at it today though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 18z GEFS Ensemble Mean 11-15 day CUMULATIVE 2m TempsThat's an absolutely nutty cumulative 2m temp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 I could see numerous reports of flakes incoming but no acculumaltion other than on the highest peaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 That GEFS mean 2m temp layout continues the theme of the operational GFS runs from 12z and 18z today, storm track would be nearby with that trough setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 GFS is close to a winter storm at least for the interior SNE within 276 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 GEFS are not quite as good a EC ensembles out in LR...the EC ensembles definitely assault the PV more and split it apart a bit. GEFS keep it a bit more consolidated, though they still have a somewhat colder pattern. It will be interesting to see which suite trends the most toward the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 GEFS are not quite as good a EC ensembles out in LR...the EC ensembles definitely assault the PV more and split it apart a bit. GEFS keep it a bit more consolidated, though they still have a somewhat colder pattern. It will be interesting to see which suite trends the most toward the other.Somewhat colder ? Pretty sure I have never seen this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 The 18z GEFS was more bullish on Greenland ridging, and kept more of a ridge into Alaska later on than the 12z Ensemble Mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Somewhat colder ? Pretty sure I have never seen this That's pretty weird looking...esp considering it is not as amplified as the Euro ensembles. Either way, it's definitely been trending colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 A stunning turn of events today on these runs. Even next week looks much cooler with that HP nosing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Why do I get the feeling this is turning into last November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 3 straight runs of the GFS with snow for the area around thanksgiving give or take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 While the change looks to happen, how long remains to be seen. GEFS still a black hole near AK, and the EC still tries to lower heights in AK at the end....although we have seen the typical 12z-00z-12z off-on-off type deals. So, I think we still need to wait and see how long it lasts...my guess is that it may revert to more typical Nino December after any change. Either way, hopefully we can sneak at least one event in and try to take advantage of any change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 models went from 70 Mon-Wed to 40's for highs Tues and Wed. Respect the backdoor. The public is going to be asking what happened to the forecasted torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 While the change looks to happen, how long remains to be seen. GEFS still a black hole near AK, ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 This is pretty amazing, I don't ever recall seeing this and its been persistent for a while. Practically the entire country in a BN temp regime in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 ? Go to 360. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 PV under attack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Go to 360. black hole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 black hole? Look how that builds in. You can't ignore that. It tries on the EC too. It needs to shift around or get destroyed. I don't see how you can pretend it's not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Steve, I am only speaking to longevity. I am not saying it won't happen. I think one thing going in its favor, is better placement of convection heading into December. I just looked at that now and if it can push out of Indonesia, it might help with the Pacific. Overall, just not sold on this being a long tern change for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Look how that builds in. You can't ignore that. It tries on the EC too. It needs to shift around or get destroyed. I don't see how you can pretend it's not there. I wouldnt describe that as a black hole though. The black hole looks like this to me, a 492 squarely over AK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Steve, I am only speaking to longevity. I am not saying it won't happen. I think one thing going in its favor, is better placement of convection heading into December. I just looked at that now and if it can push out of Indonesia, it might help with the Pacific. Overall, just not sold on this being a long tern change for the month. Understood totally, the magnitude just didn't seem significant to me. Things are going to be very transient and fast moving anyways this year, maybe we can squeeze these good periods in for the next two months before we get in a better pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 understood totally the magnitude just didn't seem significant to me. Things are going to be very transient and fast moving anyways this year, maybe we can squeeze these good periods in for the next two months before we get in a better pattern It's impressive on the GEFS. It doesn't matter how strong it is. Winds flow counterclockwise around low pressure. That affects the flow into NAMR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Guys...lets keep the obs out of this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Guys...lets keep the obs out of this thread. I realized that as soon as I posted it--sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Well this looks awful . Not unexpected ,, but hopefully incorrect. @MJVentrice: Looking into early December, holy +NAO/+AO/+EPO. Supports extremely warm start to December o/ N. America and Europe. https://t.co/lZkuikuTiq Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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