Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Tip accusing someone else of composing a migraine on paper haha It was also learning experience for me, and others, to hone their understanding. Outlook/research paper hybrid. Easy solution if it doesn't suite you, don't read it. But most chose to, so deduce from that what you may. I know so much more regarding the underlying physics behind ENSO, than I did before writing that. well, you should have said, 'Tip accusing Meteorological science et al of migraines on paper' after years of trying different styles techniques of delivery, at this point I'm pretty convinced there's no way to describe planetary wave decay without triggering a Zombie apocalypse ... It can't be done. I've embedded humor, pure 10 C jargon, ...making sure syllable counts don't tax the proletariat education base... you name it. less than 50 % learning curve is observed. Mostly I blame the writer... Yeah, we can blame people for being dim, but in the end, should it not be incumbent upon the communicator to know his/her target audience and adapt the message accordingly... ? the answer is yes ...buuuuuut, it does try one's patients when the breakdown in comms is much less for lack of aptitude/capacity, and much more bias based upon a group''s fallacy in tenet ... if perhaps rooted in personal agenda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 i got a question ( i think I know the answer, but curious what others think...). supposin' it was like +6 on the month hittin' the 20th, then, boom! like minus 8 for the last 10 days... the month mean would be +2 or something (3 maybe whatever)... so, +2 or 3 November would certainly qualify as significant enough to offer the correlation to the schit winter. But, would it ? I mean... what if it went on to be -8 through the 15th of December... that would be almost a months worth of hugely negative departure, but just because it didn't fit squarely into the spatial-temporal rang of Nov 1 - 30th, it doesn't count? it's why these correlations with autumn ..at least one reason in many, drive me to distraction. agree I used to look at monthly stuff regarding temps, indices but have since come to understand the importance of transient states, periods of opposing weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 well, you should have said, 'Tip accusing Meteorological science et al of migraines on paper' after years of trying different styles techniques of delivery, at this point I'm pretty convinced there's no way to describe planetary wave decay without triggering a Zombie apocalypse ... It can't be done. I've embedded humor, pure 10 C jargon, ...making sure syllable counts don't tax the proletariat education base... you name it. less than 50 % learning curve is observed. Mostly I blame the writer... Yeah, we can blame people for being dim, but in the end, should it not be incumbent upon the communicator to know his/her target audience and adapt the message accordingly... ? the answer is yes ...buuuuuut, it does try one's patients when the breakdown in comms is much less for lack of aptitude/capacity, and much more bias based upon a group''s fallacy in tenet ... if perhaps rooted in personal agenda. I hear that. I learn by applying theory...I'm trained that way having spent 3/4 of my life within the friendly confines of academia. I'm by no means a professional writer, nor met, but it doesn't stop me from trying to hone what skill exists in both capacities. Sorry to have derailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 agree I used to look at monthly stuff regarding temps, indices but have since come to understand the importance of transient states, periods of opposing weather. Yeah, this kind of goes back to that criticism of putting too many boundaries on events, and event types, in nature. I think the existence of a thing carries as much significance, if not more, than when it happens in particular. For me the when seems vaguely as important actually... Some years it might have been that cool snap in late August early September that exposes something about the system that ultimately causes a harsh cold snap at mid winter. But NOPE - didn't happen in November? forgeddabbowit - Likewise, sure, maybe the exposing event happens on November 1, okay. I do think there is something to time... I mean, the average pattern residence is ...I think I read 45 days once. But that's only an average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Euro says, about those 70s and 80s yea um no, waiting for the tweets and roasted turkey posts Going to go cold turkey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Going to go cold turkey Very interested in the Ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Models beginning to hone in on a quick pattern change around the 23rd of the month and holding on into the first week of DEC. GFS shows a potential snowstorm by the 29th. I think this is our best chance for our first accumulating snowfall of the Fall/winter seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Very interested in the Ens They are toasty around the 20th right now, I have them out to hr 234 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 They are toasty around the 20th right now, I have them out to hr 234 As in good toasty or toasty toasty lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 What's interesting is that the D10 Euro ensemble mean is less emphatic about the -NAO (tho still has it...) but is even more emphatic about the new ridge bulging toward the EPO domain space... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 As in good toasty or toasty toasty lol Torched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 What's interesting is that the D10 Euro ensemble mean is less emphatic about the -NAO (tho still has it...) but is even more emphatic about the new ridge bulging toward the EPO domain space... thats beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 As in good toasty or toasty toasty lol Cutter, Better chance on the follow up around the 23rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Torched drunk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 drunk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Maybe we can squeeze a nice SWFE before Novie ends, should be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Absolutely zero doubt that the Euro ensembles are trending colder in the medium to long range. This has been a 3 or 4 cycle process now. So it is starting to become more believable. I'll still want to see a few more runs, but the fact that it is not only holding serve, but actually improving, is very encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Absolutely zero doubt that the Euro ensembles are trending colder in the medium to long range. This has been a 3 or 4 cycle process now. So it is starting to become more believable. I'll still want to see a few more runs, but the fact that it is not only holding serve, but actually improving, is very encouraging. Yeah it looks to be building still at the end of the run into the CONUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Maybe we can squeeze a nice SWFE before Novie ends, should be fun I think that is quite possible by the way it looks to be shaping up in the long term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 What's interesting is that the D10 Euro ensemble mean is less emphatic about the -NAO (tho still has it...) but is even more emphatic about the new ridge bulging toward the EPO domain space... The -NAO signal on the 12z EPS is quite a bit stronger actually than the signal on the 0z Ensemble Mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I think that is quite possible by the way it looks to be shaping up in the long term i may be an idiot weenie but this is 100 times more fun than staring at ridges and AN patterns, lets do this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I think the only thing that my deserve more scrutiny is the -NAO, but the Pacific isn't a doubt IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Slight change from 00z across Baffin Bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 You really start to entertain the idea of a 2nd straight white Tgiving should this flip be real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 i got a question ( i think I know the answer, but curious what others think...). supposin' it was like +6 on the month hittin' the 20th, then, boom! like minus 8 for the last 10 days... the month mean would be +2 or something (3 maybe whatever)... so, +2 or 3 November would certainly qualify as significant enough to offer the correlation to the schit winter. But, would it ? I mean... what if it went on to be -8 through the 15th of December... that would be almost a months worth of hugely negative departure, but just because it didn't fit squarely into the spatial-temporal rang of Nov 1 - 30th, it doesn't count? it's why these correlations with autumn ..at least one reason in many, drive me to distraction. Looks like 1989, though the first part of Nov that year was more like +4 and the 2nd -10, followed by the coldest Dec on record - greatest departure for any month, AN or BN, for many stations. Then the cold air disappeared, though it remained cool enough for NNE snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 Mike Ventrice tweeting about how warm the CFS is for December like its news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Mike Ventrice tweeting about how warm the CFS is for December like its news. I have never seen 'CFS' in the same sentence with the word cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I think the only thing that my deserve more scrutiny is the -NAO, but the Pacific isn't a doubt IMO. Yeah I'm not buying a sustained -NAO...though the possibility of a transient block there is becoming more likely. It would be nice though if we built a real block there that can get involved in the early December pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 I have never seen 'CFS' in the same sentence with the word cold. Exactly my point.....in other news, the DGEX has a white TDAY through xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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