Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I'm not evading any truth. I predicted a November like this if you read my second to last blog. It just isn't important to me, so perhaps some should stop evading that particular nugget- Come writers and critics Who prophesize with your pen And keep your eyes wide The chance won't come again And don't speak too soon For the wheel's still in spin And there's no tellin' who That it's namin'. For the loser now Will be later to win For the times they are a-changin'. There's a battle outside And it is ragin'. It'll soon shake your windows And rattle your walls For the times they are a-changin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 Nice, Steve....did you write that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Nice, Steve....did you write that? Lol no Bob Dylan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Snowy Black Friday for eastern New England on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 post but hey nice porn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Can we lo-lock it in for 348h? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 Lol no Bob Dylan I was going to say....you guys think I can write... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Fantasy range but the op Gfs brings the artic chill thanksgiving week and a late blooming miller B for the day after thanksgiving lol Yeah, was just going to muse over that very same thing -... Seems this run is reverting back to that previous teleconnector vibe that was present up through yesterday. As I wrote about a while ago, tho, that vibe was pretty much abolished last night. At least in the American side. Scooter might have access to the Euro/UKMET -based derivatives; I don't. But in any case, my statement was going be just that, fantasy range 'first synoptic threat' oy vay. Yesterday I opined at length how that previous signal did get us chilly during that week, and the reasoning mapped(s) nicely to this run. I just don't buy it any more though... Need to get one to verify at this point. We are dealing with persistence at this point, which puts the onus on the models to knock that down correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I was going to say....you guys think I can write... lol Not really comparable styles... Dylon, among other ilks of being, was a poet ... pretty much above all else. Taking readers on a circuitous venture through the tapestry of oceanic and atmospheric teleconnectors in order to arrive at a supposition for a seasonal outlook ... somehow I don't think really qualifies, or even could be quantized the same way. Unless you write like me - HA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 went trough Norwich Ct yesterday, nice 1-2 foot surge, Thames was way high at high tide. Surf was pounding today at the beaches. pic from Gloucester from Peter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Euro says, about those 70s and 80s yea um no, waiting for the tweets and roasted turkey posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 The times they are a changin, massive Euro flip Today Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 1041 Scooter high, look at that Greenland block too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Not sure what is causing that massive Greenland block, but it is clear times are achanging, albeit probably temporary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 First SWFE of the season in clown range...congrats powderfreak and Sunday River. The nuclear block in Greenland is what drives that whole evolution for a colder solution in our neck of the woods...but I'm skeptical of the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 First SWFE of the season in clown range...congrats powderfreak and Sunday River. The nuclear block in Greenland is what drives that whole evolution for a colder solution in our neck of the woods...but I'm skeptical of the block. Are you guys talkin' GEFs of Euro ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Are you guys talkin' GEFs of Euro ? Euro at D9-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Are you guys talkin' GEFs of Euro ? Euro. Has a wave riding along the baroclinic zone. Arctic High pressing from the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Not sure what is causing that massive Greenland block, but it is clear times are achanging, albeit probably temporary. Hopefullly we get that 7-10 period I envisioned in my outlook. Good to see this being shown , certainly a cold time for Canada and leaking south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 We snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Ridge about to reload over AK on D10 too....what a weenie run of the Euro today. I'm sure it will show Kevin's 85F heatwave next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 First SWFE of the season in clown range...congrats powderfreak and Sunday River. The nuclear block in Greenland is what drives that whole evolution for a colder solution in our neck of the woods...but I'm skeptical of the block. Looks like a heat pump sucked up from the subtropics from the super low near Denver gets cutoff right over Greenland, that would be cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Ridge about to reload over AK on D10 too....what a weenie run of the Euro today. I'm sure it will show Kevin's 85F heatwave next run. There has been an obvious change in all modelling the last few runs, obviously very early but it appears at some point before this month ends realignment will occur for a period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 Not really comparable styles... Dylon, among other ilks of being, was a poet ... pretty much above all else. Taking readers on a circuitous venture through the tapestry of oceanic and atmospheric teleconnectors in order to arrive at a supposition for a seasonal outlook ... somehow I don't think really qualifies, or even could be quantized the same way. Unless you write like me - HA! It was in jest.....jesus. I'm good with writing like you...folks understand and relate to my style, and even have a chuckle now and again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Euro - definitely also reverted back to the teleconnector layout from yesterday ... if perhaps in it's own way, but both it and the GFS operational seem to do the same thing on this 12z run. ... interesting Yeah, I can see the hesitation to buy that -- I opined my own reservations earlier in the day... But, I also don't believe that is the diving NAO on that operation Euro run that presages events. If you look prior to the construction of that block, the NE Pac clearly alters flow structure and that subtends R-wave breaks downstream over N/A. The blocking that results in the NAO domain space is really the remnant eastern middle latitude ridge being displaced N up into the Maritimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 It was in jest.....jesus. I'm good with writing like you...folks understand and relate to my style, and even have a chuckle now and again. i know ... i'm musing there. the funny line for me was, 'taking readers on a ciruitous venture' -- could replace that with 'migraine' and be done with it. heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 Euro - definitely also reverted back to the teleconnector layout from yesterday ... if perhaps in it's own way, but both it and the GFS operational seem to do the same thing on this 12z run. ... interesting Yeah, I can see the hesitation to buy that -- I opined my own reservations earlier in the day... But, I also don't believe that is the diving NAO on that operation Euro run that presages events. If you look prior to the construction of that block, the NE Pac clearly alters flow structure and that subtends R-wave breaks downstream over N/A. The blocking that results in the NAO domain space is really the remnant eastern middle latitude ridge being displaced N up into the Maritimes. That is how a lot of the favorable seasonals arrive at the desired out come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 i know ... i'm musing there. the funny line for me was, 'taking readers on a ciruitous venture' -- could replace that with 'migraine' and be done with it. heh Tip accusing someone else of composing a migraine on paper haha It was also a learning experience for me, and others, to hone their understanding. Outlook/research paper hybrid. Easy solution if it doesn't suite you, don't read it. But most chose to, so deduce from that what you may. I know so much more regarding the underlying physics of ENSO, than I did before writing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 i got a question ( i think I know the answer, but curious what others think...). supposin' it was like +6 on the month hittin' the 20th, then, boom! like minus 8 for the last 10 days... the month mean would be +2 or something (3 maybe whatever)... so, +2 or 3 November would certainly qualify as significant enough to offer the correlation to the schit winter. But, would it ? I mean... what if it went on to be -8 through the 15th of December... that would be almost a months worth of hugely negative departure, but just because it didn't fit squarely into the spatial-temporal rang of Nov 1 - 30th, it doesn't count? it's why these correlations with autumn ..at least one reason in many, drive me to distraction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 We snow as in about 3000' above me right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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