Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Lots of weenies flying around in here. Most likely nothing comes if this other than a few cutters and cold shots behind them. Do folks recall 2011? False promises. Reel them in for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 Lots of weenies flying around in here. Most likely nothing comes if this other than a few cutters and cold shots behind them. Do folks recall 2011? False promises. Reel them in for now :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 LOL. The kid doesn't know whether he's coming or going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 11-12. The winter that promised and never delivered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 This is an interesting hybrid pattern. STJ and SW trough say Nino. Cold plunging into Plains and SE ridge, say Nina. Of course within any long term ENSO event you can always get temporary shifts in the pattern...but kind of interesting. Spoke at length earlier in the season ... re the large scale conflict of thermodynamic signals, ranging between multi-decadal oscillation in the NP wanting to favor -EPOs working over top of warm ENSO. Which wins? At times we may see circulation media that reflect one or the other; at other times, perhaps a 'hybrid' as you say... But, I for one am expecting a hodgepodge of variant pattern configuraiton during this cold season because of those largely offsetting/disparate signals vying for proxy. Although - caveat emptor (for more than just being a member of the vocal proletariat rabble...); I am beginning to wonder if the NP --> -EPO thing has dropped. It's certainly in an interim hiatus; who knows how long it will last. But I really don't believe that same sort of base-line preponderant -EPO, or -EPO like look has been in play since October. Seems to have really sans a presentation in the flow and in a metaphoric sense, the Pac perhaps consequently almost seems like an errant unmanned fire-hose now...spraying R-wave counts down stream over the Americans, Atlantic into western Europe without settling into a coherent flow. I'm not sure if that changeability in its self is 'blamable' on this particular ENSO event, but heh ... I'm a big fan of cause and effect and when the only two most compelling evidences are: losing the NP (for now...?), combined with near or at record warm therms over the Pac SSTs, what else is culpable? Kind of makes me wonder if any seasonal outlook can be trusted in this particular year, more so questionable then other years. Last year for me was a slam-dunk colder and snowier than normal year, but Nature only got there in the most UN-predictable means possible. Like it achieved it, while still making everyone wrong! ...ironic... if not funny. Heh, in any event, this is certainly an odd look no matter what the culprit. We are oscillating between inside and outside sliders along the West Coast, while pummeling TX with heavy rain, consequently for all maintaining winter canceling geopotential heights in the E. I was just observing the overnight teleconnectors, and they've just completely dumped that 2-day emergent signal for things to change. The CPC now is organizing a new, fresh anti-christ AO for the extended, just when it was looking (for winter enthusiasts) more hopeful that a negative - ish end of the month would herald what said individual's really want. This is the 3rd time in 14 days I've seen a 2-day stint of lying teleconnectors attempting to offset was has arguably become persistence (heh, the only argument coming from those that don't like, most likely...) But, 3 strikes and I'm out! I'm not believing another cold look for the OV until one verifies. The onus is in the models at this point to get it right because one's confidences/trust have just been too rattled by said deception(s). Anywho ... agreed with the hybrid notion. just adding sentiment/intuitive ideas that it could be expected going forward. Just wonderin' if that dern NP is going to abandon us... I really guys I gotta say, if we don't get blocking into eastern Siberia, the Alaskan region or the NW Territories... I don't see how the conus doesn't become a warm winter duck hunt. I think the purely objective point of view has got to be a ratter winter without impetus to say otherwise. I certainly hope not.. .If for no other reason, I really don't carry the same obsession with white rain ..but four months of banality ...egh! booooooorrrrrrrinnnnnnnnng Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 11-12. The winter that promised and never delivered And what is your point? 2001-2002, the winter that promised and never delivered. 2014-2015, the winter that weenies cancelled and then delivered 2012-2013, the winter that weenies cancelled and then delivered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 LOL. The kid doesn't know whether he's coming or going. I mean 2 days ago it was 75-80''s roasted turkeys la di da dida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 And what is your point? 2001-2002, the winter that promised and never delivered. 2014-2015, the winter that weenies cancelled and then delivered 2012-2013, the winter that weenies cancelled and then delivered 13/14 was cancelled too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 13/14 was cancelled too It was? I don't remember that...we got good snow that December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 And what is your point? 2001-2002, the winter that promised and never delivered. 2014-2015, the winter that weenies cancelled and then delivered 2012-2013, the winter that weenies cancelled and then delivered Discussing false model promises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Spoke at length earlier in the season ... re the large scale conflict of thermodynamic signals, ranging between multi-decadal oscillation in the NP wanting to favor -EPOs working over top of warm ENSO. Which wins? At times we may see circulation media that reflect one or the other; at other times, perhaps a 'hybrid' as you say... But, I for one am expecting a hodgepodge of variant pattern configuraiton during this cold season because of those largely offsetting/disparate signals vying for proxy. Although - caveat emptor (for more than just being a member of the vocal proletariat rabble...); I am beginning to wonder if the NP --> -EPO thing has dropped. It's certainly in an interim hiatus; who knows how long it will last. But I really don't believe that same sort of base-line preponderant -EPO, or -EPO like look has been in play since October. Seems to have really sans a presentation in the flow and in a metaphoric sense, the Pac perhaps consequently almost seems like an errant unmanned fire-hose now...spraying R-wave counts down stream over the Americans, Atlantic into western Europe without settling into a coherent flow. I'm not sure if that changeability in its self is 'blamable' on this particular ENSO event, but heh ... I'm a big fan of cause and effect and when the only two most compelling evidences are: losing the NP (for now...?), combined with near or at record warm therms over the Pac SSTs, what else is culpable? Kind of makes me wonder if any seasonal outlook can be trusted in this particular year, more so questionable then other years. Last year for me was a slam-dunk colder and snowier than normal year, but Nature only got there in the most UN-predictable means possible. Like it achieved it, while still making everyone wrong! ...ironic... if not funny. Heh, in any event, this is certainly an odd look no matter what the culprit. We are oscillating between inside and outside sliders along the West Coast, while pummeling TX with heavy rain, consequently for all maintaining winter canceling geopotential heights in the E. I was just observing the overnight teleconnectors, and they've just completely dumped that 2-day emergent signal for things to change. The CPC now is organizing a new, fresh anti-christ AO for the extended, just when it was looking (for winter enthusiasts) more hopeful that a negative - ish end of the month would herald what said individual's really want. This is the 3rd time in 14 days I've seen a 2-day stint of lying teleconnectors attempting to offset was has arguably become persistence (heh, the only argument coming from those that don't like, most likely...) But, 3 strikes and I'm out! I'm not believing another cold look for the OV until one verifies. The onus is in the models at this point to get it right because one's confidences/trust have just been too rattled by said deception(s). Anywho ... agreed with the hybrid notion. just adding sentiment/intuitive ideas that it could be expected going forward. Just wonderin' if that dern NP is going to abandon us... I really guys I gotta say, if we don't get blocking into eastern Siberia, the Alaskan region or the NW Territories... I don't see how the conus doesn't become a warm season duck hunt. I think the purely objective point of view has got to be a ratter winter without impetus to say otherwise. I certainly hope not.. .If for no other reason, I really don't carry the same obsession with white rain ..but four months of banality ...egh! booooooorrrrrrrinnnnnnnnng Well the EPO could easily disappear with a strong ENSO. Maybe it won't, but if it does...it's just a victim of a very strong large scale pattern driver. I think the hybrid is a result of non-nino type MJO/CCKW phases for now. My guess is it won't last, but we'll see as we head through December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Discussing false model promises But you aren't looking at the models. If you were, you would see it doesn't have a monster AK/GOA vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 But you aren't looking at the models. If you were, you would see it doesn't have a monster AK/GOA vortex.And that is the point. They kept getting rid of it in 11-12 and it never left. I'm thinking this could be the same deal. Hopefully not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Well the EPO could easily disappear with a strong ENSO. Maybe it won't, but if it does...it's just a victim of a very strong large scale pattern driver. I think the hybrid is a result of non-nino type MJO/CCKW phases for now. My guess is it won't last, but we'll see as we head through December. There's likely more value than not in making that statement. One of the environmental problem solving exercises we did while as under-grads, was called "scaling equations" It's perhaps geeky, but it was assigned work nonetheless. What you do is put all the known forces that effect a system in nature on a matrix, ranking them by orders of magnitude (or less if their difference are small...etc). Another term is 'dimensional analysis' ... Anyway, it mathematically derives the most influential force in the system. All it really implies is, whatever the most influential force is determined, one should expect the observation of its present more than 50% (and so on...) of the time. Maybe warm ENSO is that force, eh I didn't want to admit it myself. But it wasn't for any agenda, it was strictly because: the CDC matrix that correlates all fields doesn't show a 1::1 correlation between the NP and the tropical Pacific. So, purely by logic, that means there are times when the NP and ENSO are not shaking hands. So, yeah, a -EPO can reign at times up over a warm ENSO. But it's all so complex; who the hell knows - I mean, it could be that very extreme warm (cold) ENSOs get so dominating - but again, that would be demonstrable in scaling/dimension analysis; orders of magnitude overwhelming that they just utterly trump everything. Maybe that's our plight thus far? in any event, perhaps it all kind of focuses into a laser statement like: ".it's just a victim of a very strong large scale pattern driver" Yeah, could also just by looking at a ripple in the space-time of the field do to the presence of MJO, too. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Discussing false model promises I don't see how 2011 is relevant at the moment. The models aren't "promising" anything right now. It's a somewhat better pattern on the D12-15 ensembles...take that value for what it is worth right now, which isn't a whole lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 aside from the fact, the premise of his current discourse spoke of "winters" not living up to promise. "models" don't predict winters... So the entire debate is flawed. I guess unless he means "seasonal modeling" but that doesn't work in this case either, because the only seasonal modeling I've seen is bring Venus home. In which case, yeah... pretty good so far. it's just cackling guys - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 11-12. The winter that promised and never delivered Who "promised" anything? The consensus was wrong....happens often is seasonal forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 aside from the fact, the premise of his current discourse spoke of "winters" not living up to promise. "models" don't predict winters... So the entire debate is flawed. I guess unless he means "seasonal modeling" but that doesn't work in this case either, because the only seasonal modeling I've seen is bring Venus home. In which case, yeah... pretty good so far. it's just cackling guys - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 It was? I don't remember that...we got good snow that December. In November the year of the vortex95 famous pic of Scooter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 There's likely more value than not in making that statement. One of the environmental problem solving exercises we did while as under-grads, was called "scaling equations" It's perhaps geeky, but it was assigned work nonetheless. What you do is put all the known forces that effect a system in nature on a matrix, ranking them by orders of magnitude (or less if their difference are small...etc). Another term is 'dimensional analysis' ... Anyway, it mathematically derives the most influential force in the system. All it really implies is, whatever the most influential force is determined, one should expect the observation of its present more than 50% (and so on...) of the time. Maybe warm ENSO is that force, eh I didn't want to admit it myself. But it wasn't for any agenda, it was strictly because: the CDC matrix that correlates all fields doesn't show a 1::1 correlation between the NP and the tropical Pacific. So, purely by logic, that means there are times when the NP and ENSO are not shaking hands. So, yeah, a -EPO can reign at times up over a warm ENSO. But it's all so complex; who the hell knows - I mean, it could be that very extreme warm (cold) ENSOs get so dominating - but again, that would be demonstrable in scaling/dimension analysis; orders of magnitude overwhelming that they just utterly trump everything. Maybe that's our plight thus far? in any event, perhaps it all kind of focuses into a laser statement like: ".it's just a victim of a very strong large scale pattern driver" Yeah, could also just by looking at a ripple in the space-time of the field do to the presence of MJO, too. haha Well I guess what I am saying is simplistic, but if you have all that heat released and being thrown into the atmosphere, you are going to get an increased STJ which by default could make for a -EPO more hostile. However, as we know...where the forcing is centered means everything, so there is more to it. Just kind of using an umbrella statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 yeah, ...haha. folks' can dink around with truth-pain evading/deflecting buns all they won't but sorry. this: is a dead ringer for this: however transient, or coincidental that may be argued aside ... we've seen this set up pounded in verifications over and over again now for some 40 days it more than just seems. which supports my point. without the NP --> -EPO... this may just typify your ensuing limp-d cold season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 And that is the point. They kept getting rid of it in 11-12 and it never left. I'm thinking this could be the same deal. Hopefully not My point is this isn't a black hole like 11-12 was at the moment, which harkens back to my comment about looking at the models. Even 2011-2012 had a wintry period in January. I think you are missing the fact we are just talking about a small window late November and early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 My point is this isn't a black hole like 11-12 was at the moment, which harkens back to my comment about looking at the models. Even 2011-2012 had a wintry period in January. I think you are missing the fact we are just talking about a small window late November and early December.I believe the point you are missing is how do we not know the same thing is happening here? In that winter they kept showing it breaking down and it didn't. Could we be seeing that here? Time tells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Big snowstorm for Denver next week if the Gfs is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I believe the point you are missing is how do we not know the same thing is happening here? In that winter they kept showing it breaking down and it didn't. Could we be seeing that here? Time tells We get it...you are super paranoid about this winter. We don't know if it will suck or not yet. But it's ok to talk about ensemble guidance with some uncertainty. We don't have to say "hey, this is the same exact thing as 2011, the good pattern will never come"....because we have no idea if that is actually true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 We get it...you are super paranoid about this winter. We don't know if it will suck or not yet. But it's ok to talk about ensemble guidance with some uncertainty. We don't have to say "hey, this is the same exact thing as 2011, the good pattern will never come"....because we have no idea if that is actually true. Of course. We can talk about anything and everything here. We also want people to be aware of any and all possibilities and not fall into the trap they did other years.. Good or bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Fantasy range but the op Gfs brings the artic chill thanksgiving week and a late blooming miller B for the day after thanksgiving lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Of course. We can talk about anything and everything here. We also want people to be aware of any and all possibilities and not fall into the trap they did other years.. Good or bad Will and I both said how it's possible it may break down. We are also keeping in mind that it's early so we aren't necessarily talking about setting the stage for any prolonged cold or snowy weather. We are just speaking about a potential change for a period of time. The difference here is you are basing your arguments from PTSD of 2011-2012. Will and I are looking at actual data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Snowshowers tonight, tropical storm conditions tomorrow night. On a serious note, nice to see a return to seasonable temps come Turkey Day. Just might get some skiing in by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 I'm not evading any truth. I predicted a November like this if you read my second to last blog. It just isn't important to me, so perhaps some should stop evading that particular nugget- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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