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Definitely going to be an interesting time here Friday night through midday Saturday.  I think even at home I could be snowing a little on Saturday morning.  Meso-scale models are very, very wet (like 1.5-3.0") for the summits, and although at least half of that is likely rain, would not surprise me to see like a high elevation pasting.  When H85 temps so marginal near 0C for a while tomorrow afternoon/evening, if strong orographic ascent can produce localized cooling, could see some decent snow on the picnic tables.

 

Looks like all models bring orographic showers straight down to the Berkshires, probably some snow showers there on Saturday morning, too.

 

Congrats Pete!

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We hopefully snow.  I think the picnic tables have a good shot at 6+. 

 

 

AS THE 700MB LOW AXIS CROSSES TO OUR EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP EXCELLENT UPSLOPE CONDITIONS UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY
IN THE FAVOURED UPSLOPE REGIONS AS THE FLOW BECOMES BLOCKED LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SNOW AT TERRAIN 1000FT AND UP
WITH STORM TOTALS IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS
ON THE PEAKS.

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Wouldn't take much considering the look over the next 10 days. Still decent troughing in the SW through d15 so it may not exactly be below normal.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if we stay generally above normal in that pattern...but it will at least offer some colder shots so we have a day or three below normal in between more moderate to mild airmasses. The best of what available cold there is definitely looks strongest in the central US...and next week there may actually be a legit arctic shot for the western US.

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the times they are a changin

https://twitter.com/DanLeonard_wx

 

 

Yeah that is what helps get some actual cold into Canada...it's not ridonkulous cold like some of the recent November cold-dumps (you can see the ridge doesn't shoot up into the Arctic ocean), but it's not the firehose airmass anymore. So this may allow for more seasonable cold to get us at times if that setup holds.

 

Still a ways out though.

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I wouldn't be surprised if we stay generally above normal in that pattern...but it will at least offer some colder shots so we have a day or three below normal in between more moderate to mild airmasses. The best of what available cold there is definitely looks strongest in the central US...and next week there may actually be a legit arctic shot for the western US.

 

Yeah that looks like a hell of a cold shot in the West by later next week. All the cold air pooling over AK/W Canada takes a nose dive in as the +EPO retrogrades to a +WPO look...there is bleeding eastward but def modified, and wouldnt be surprised if a storm amps things to the southeast again and were warmer...The end of the EPS def was the most interesting run weve seen though for suggesting a better pattern. Alas, the 00z/12z runs all week have been playing see-saw with height changes over AK/NE Pac all week so lets see better consistency.

 

Also, the Weeklies arent playing ball, but those are the weeklies.

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This happens in droughts

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

AS WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIP THIS FALL...SHOWERS HAVE NOT TURNED OUT
TO BE AS HEAVY AS FORECAST.
HEAVIEST RAIN IS FALLING ON THE UPPER
CAPE CURRENTLY AND IS NOT AMOUNTING TO MUCH. OVERCAST SKIES ARE
KEEPING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH A FEW
READINGS AROUND 50 DEGREES AS YOU APPROACH THE SOUTH COAST.

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A weenie drive to 2K+ in S VT may be in order for Saturday morning. Although likely overdone, the latest 4-km NAM is hitting that area pretty good with upslope precipitation (rain changing to snow) and 3-6" of snow accumulation. In reality it will likely be more like 1-3", but still. Graphics are from a new model site, pivotalweather.com, which has pretty sleek looking graphics and is not paywalled (at least not yet anyway).

 

post-48-0-14389100-1447386841_thumb.png

 

post-48-0-21637300-1447386874_thumb.png

 

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