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Nippy Novie


40/70 Benchmark

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subtle but real change in the landscape of odds in my mind, based upon the recent teleconnectors, combined with persistent extended ttrends in the various operational versions. 

 

firstly ... we have to content with banal warmth, with possibly some wind/rain excitement along a strong baroclinic translations (or two) over the next week to 9 or so days.  in that time, +3 or more sd850mb temperature anomalies penetrate to buf- c ne latitudes for a time.  then the cooler gauntlet falls? 

 

there is a bit of a correction into late middle range, over the np...enough so to get a bit more episodic NW deep layer flow intervals into the canadian shield. that much is higher confidence; the idea of a upward correcting pna(actually positive at this point over at cdc) is less pending continuity.  assuming the latter emerges, pretty striking variance in sensible weather may take place between d6 and tg.  if wet barotropic we hang at 68/66 in southerlies, but lowering that dp in that sort of warm sector drops, the temp rises disproportionately and we sore into the 70s!   

 

starkly contrasting [given to some continuity in recent extended trends], a general medium of mid to upper 30s in the els, to 45 at the shores in polar air/snow -like thickness may pervade tg week.   clues may include the multi-run, mult-day support of deep time range circulation change in the more reliable operational model types + emerging recent tele c trends that favor a more -np/+pna in time + constructive mjo wave interference.  these events may or may not conflict with enso arguments, but there would be times when that would break down anyway... lastly, speculative but watch invest out west of the date line in the west pac; that circulation type would re-curve anything that comes of that with a goodly bit of discerned intent and rapidity - if so would feed back positively. 

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I really don't see why anyone cares what happens in Novie.

 

I do bust DIT's balls quite a bit, but I can see his side of it.  This is a pretty bad pattern.  There's no shame in saying that.  Most point to the fact that it doesn't really snow in November and we aren't protecting the snowpack, or whatever...but IT CAN snow.   I think that's the point.  You wait the entire warm season, there are only so many months of the year that it can snow (not months that it will, just can).  November is an easy month to punt, but its also a month that can make winter longer. 

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I do bust DIT's balls quite a bit, but I can see his side of it.  This is a pretty bad pattern.  There's no shame in saying that.  Most point to the fact that it doesn't really snow in November and we aren't protecting the snowpack, or whatever...but IT CAN snow.   I think that's the point.  You wait the entire warm season, there are only so many months of the year that it can snow (not months that it will, just can).  November is an easy month to punt, but its also a month that can make winter longer. 

 

November is a good starting springboard for the ski season up there...so it kind of sucks when you waste most of it.

 

Down here, it doesn't really do anything until T-day week...we'll often get minor snows before that which are cool (first accumulations of the year are always special to me), but they melt the same day or the next day and you are 53F again in the blink of an eye. I'll start getting annoyed at a warm pattern once we roll through T-day and if there's nothing on the horizon. That may very well happen this year, but hopefully not and we find a few snow events before Xmas.

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I do bust DIT's balls quite a bit, but I can see his side of it. This is a pretty bad pattern. There's no shame in saying that. Most point to the fact that it doesn't really snow in November and we aren't protecting the snowpack, or whatever...but IT CAN snow. I think that's the point. You wait the entire warm season, there are only so many months of the year that it can snow (not months that it will, just can). November is an easy month to punt, but its also a month that can make winter longer.

Bingo. Couldn't have said it any better myself. I don't know how many times ive said that over the years. There's only a few short months when it can be cold and/or snow. Contrast that with how it can be warm for at least 9-10 months.. If we have to wait for a delayed cold season .. That really really blows
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Clown range...breathe it in.

2mdep.png

Looking at the map and then extrapolating forward a few days, it would seem likely that even if the trough is de-amplifying we would still drop down to near or even a notch or two below normal with that amount of cold air driving that far south. AT least some of it will translate eastward.

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windsexy weekend for Vt and the Berks with some spill over squalls to ORH, windy as heck too. Definite fall feel incoming. Will not be surprised to see many below 32 Sun AM

 

Definitely going to be an interesting time here Friday night through midday Saturday.  I think even at home I could be snowing a little on Saturday morning.  Meso-scale models are very, very wet (like 1.5-3.0") for the summits, and although at least half of that is likely rain, would not surprise me to see like a high elevation pasting.  When H85 temps so marginal near 0C for a while tomorrow afternoon/evening, if strong orographic ascent can produce localized cooling, could see some decent snow on the picnic tables.

 

Looks like all models bring orographic showers straight down to the Berkshires, probably some snow showers there on Saturday morning, too.

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