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Nippy Novie


40/70 Benchmark

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Still have had good high pressure over Siberia with a strong jet slamming against the mtns there, so we have some mtn torque trying to help too. I'm not sure we can dislodge the black hole anytime soon, but there are things trying to do some work on it, unlike last year.

The ridge is in a favorable spot in Siberia for the snowpack to work its magic. We just need a couple waves to break and I think we can start the process. We will be dealing with the vortex though for at least the next few weeks.

EC ensembles were trying to shift it away from the death spot though so hopefully we can sneak some colder airmasses in even tho we will still have a +AO

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Yeah I thought this was the best eps yet. Suspect it even suggests (if correct) we could start December chilly.

It acually had some cold in Canada. Nothing crazy but something to work with for early season snow potential as we head into December. We will have to see if we can build on this run.

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That's 65-70 Tuesday thru Friday next week. That is brutal

 

I am sure it will be mild, but not that warm the whole time. Following weekend might be warm though. Regardless, it's good to get the cold shots heading deep into the Plains. Getting colder air into Canada is more important, and while it's not polar vortex cold or anything like that...it's also not a PAC firehose torching Canada. 

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I am sure it will be mild, but not that warm the whole time. Following weekend might be warm though. Regardless, it's good to get the cold shots heading deep into the Plains. Getting colder air into Canada is more important, and while it's not polar vortex cold or anything like that...it's also not a PAC firehose torching Canada.

What period do the ENS get the cooling in here?
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They still have a trough in the Plains at the end of the run, which tells me it will not be anytime soon. Totally fine by me. Hopefully as climo gets more favorable in December it may change....even if only temporary. 

Oh so sounds like they backed off on what you guys mentioned yesterday about more seasonal chill in here

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wonder how many of those 17M living in and near NYC would ever notice their concrete wasn't wet

Or anywhere, for that matter.  Drought in New England after leaf-drop and the end of the growing season is a meaningless concept.  Yeah, water levels in streams, lakes, and reservoirs might be down, but one good rainstorm will fill them up, especially without any leaf material to intercept and slow down runoff, or evapotranspiration to pull it out of the ground and send it back into the air.

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