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Was reminiscing lore with an old timer here in town the other day.  Sentiments surrounded how year to year the variation in weather over Thanks Giving can be remarkably different. 

 

Older cats seem to be the most resistant to the ideas of Global warming.  Whenever the topic comes up waiting for a bus, sipping an eggnog at a holiday function..etc, they tend to flee toward the idea that it's just variation year to year as their best defense. He stated how he recalls years where the windows were opened ... curtains afloat because it was so warm that it was unbearable having the oven on.  Other years, they weren't sure they could cut through the severity of the winter storm and might just miss the day's festivities altogether. 

 

Perhaps that is so, but It is interesting to me how experience teaches us how much we don't really know, yet it seems it is the experienced among us that tend to be the most closed minded and resistant to the possibility of change.  Either way, this year might be one of those years where the curtains betray breezes passing through vacated windows. 

 

TG is still a solid two weeks away, so ... will hold final prognosis..  But, the previous cooler look among the American side teleconnectors, slated to kick in from the ides through the end of the month, has begun to hedge toward persistence. And, now there is a trend in the operational runs to really bring a day of record warmth into the OV ... possibly here at some point D 7 through 10.  

 

The recent GGEM has a remarkable 850 mb temperature in warm sector all the way to +16 C or more, as far N as Cleveland on D7! The Euro has a more realistic 12 or perhaps 13 C look, but both have a whopper continental WCB drilling any semblance of winter air masses clear to the 60th parallel around that time.  Massive modified polar high tips seaward and with the semi-permanent trough still locked over the Rockies, ejecting S/W that only locally enhanced deep layer warm transport from the Arklotex to Michigan, one way or the other there is above median confidence that the period of time in question is dominated by winter's anti-Christ.  Then... beyond?  wow at that Euro SD ridge approaching June-like awesomeness.

 

This pattern we've found our selves in is both 1) an actual pattern to me at this point, and not just some transitory oddity, but 2) I wonder if there is any precedence in the annuals of ENSO that bears some analogy.   

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That's such a good pattern out west...a deep trough every 3-5 days seemingly. Just one after another.

 

Gonna be a great early season out there. We'll just have to see if the good pattern for them holds through December.

Solid dumpage last night...link posted by Bob Chill in MA thread

 

https://photosskiloveland.com/lapse/SnowCam/timelapses.htm?reloaded=true

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Probably just model noise, but a better PNA in NW Canada for sure this run. The vortex also is forced west so no surprise the PNA responds. 

 

 

Def colder pattern on EC ensembles for T-day week...not frigid, but at least some seasonably cold weather showing up.

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