Ginx snewx Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 This is pretty impressive for the NNE crew over the weekend, should be some great squalls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Ggem model suite fail. Lots of dry air today, wouldn't be shocked at partial sunshine for some. Still a slug of decent moisture later tonight into Wed but not 1-2 inch amounts. Based on radar, GGEM will verify best at 18z believe it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 This is pretty impressive for the NNE crew over the weekend, should be some great squalls Yeah definitely a little bit of powderfreak frolicking in the snow for a couple days there. Some upslope enhancement should occur of course aside from the ULL snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Yeah definitely a little bit of powderfreak frolicking in the snow for a couple days there. Some upslope enhancement should occur of course aside from the ULL snow showers. That's got some potential for elevation snowfall. 925mb temps lag a bit behind 850, but models are signaling a good 0.5"-0.7" from Mansfield to Jay Peak in a snow column above 2,000ft, and eventually lowering to the valley. You've got the upper level low with low level orographics underneath, may bring something to have a little fun with this weekend. Just noticed the 6z GFS had 24-hour precip amounts of around 1.0" in the Mansfield to Jay Peak stretch...that would actually be a nice little dump for the ski areas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 That's got some potential for elevation snowfall. 925mb temps lag a bit behind 850, but models are signaling a good 0.5"-0.7" from Mansfield to Jay Peak in a snow column above 2,000ft, and eventually lowering to the valley. You've got the upper level low with low level orographics underneath, may bring something to have a little fun with this weekend. Just noticed the 6z GFS had 24-hour precip amounts of around 1.0" in the Mansfield to Jay Peak stretch...that would actually be a nice little dump for the ski areas... Yea thats a nice look PF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Yea thats a nice look PF Still real early, but nice to see the GFS/ECMWF/GGEM are all pretty much in agreement with the synoptic look on Saturday. The problem is how often do the models nail positions of H5 and H7 lows this far in advance? Something is bound to change. If that set-up came though, there's a decent duration to it and I'd almost bet its under-done. I've seen these marginal air-masses (with higher PWATS) wring out some surprising QPF over the crest. Funny that its the system moving through the west right now. Hopefully it holds its strength as it looks fairly potent once over the Plains and Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Other than a brief shot or two, nothing wintry until the black hole leaves AK/Bering Sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 When is our first chance of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 When is our first chance of snow? We already had it in October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 BTV chuckin' them... they know where their priorities are. I know most on the board echo this sentiment: AS THE ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTSTHROUGH THE REGION, GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THEWEST/NORTHWEST AND THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURESTILL OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE FIRST (OFHOPEFULLY MANY) UPSLOPE EVENT OF THE SEASON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Both GEFS and EC ensembles do look a bit cooler (not blistering cold or anything) in the LR...they retro the low height anomalies a bit west which allows a little bit more cold air to come into the CONUS...the western US looks the coldest initially, but something to watch as ridging pops up a bit in W Canada...becomes more split flow which may cool us down a bit. We aren't at the point of any large scale -AO though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Both GEFS and EC ensembles do look a bit cooler (not blistering cold or anything) in the LR...they retro the low height anomalies a bit west which allows a little bit more cold air to come into the CONUS...the western US looks the coldest initially, but something to watch as ridging pops up a bit in W Canada...becomes more split flow which may cool us down a bit. We aren't at the point of any large scale -AO though. What I'm noticing is that we certainly need more cold in Canada, especially in our adjacent zones. Even NW flow isn't advecting in anything cold at this point. I've been noticing it while following the possible mountain snow this weekend, the air to our north is just so marginally cold. Pockets of 850mb temps that are above zero mixed in with sub-zero temps. All the while 925mb holds at like 0C or +1C. Not a cool look at all in some of these soundings for the weekend. And that's with backside NW flow behind a fairly potent shortwave. Not a fan of having like 1,000 miles between the 0C and -10C isotherms at H85, haha. I could see a lot of elevation events heading through December as you get marginally sub-freezing air aloft but Pacific puke underneath it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 What I'm noticing is that we certainly need more cold in Canada, especially in our adjacent zones. Even NW flow isn't advecting in anything cold at this point. I've been noticing it while following the possible mountain snow this weekend, the air to our north is just so marginally cold. Pockets of 850mb temps that are above zero mixed in with sub-zero temps. All the while 925mb holds at like 0C or +1C. Not a cool look at all in some of these soundings for the weekend. And that's with backside NW flow behind a fairly potent shortwave. Not a fan of having like 1,000 miles between the 0C and -10C isotherms at H85, haha. I could see a lot of elevation events heading through December as you get marginally sub-freezing air aloft but Pacific puke underneath it. The good thing is that it isn't a Pacific firehose. You are cooked if that happens. There is just enough amplitude in NW Canada to get colder air into the Plains and then perhaps head east. It's one of those patterns that would work in winter..but borderline right now for the area..expect maybe higher terrain. But overall...it's not a wintry look at the moment....but also not an all out furnace towards the end of the runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 The good thing is that it isn't a Pacific firehose. You are cooked if that happens. There is just enough amplitude in NW Canada to get colder air into the Plains and then perhaps head east. It's one of those patterns that would work in winter..but borderline right now for the area..expect maybe higher terrain. But overall...it's not a wintry look at the moment....but also not an all out furnace towards the end of the runs. I consider this all good news! I can't remember the last time we had a front-loaded winter, and it does not look like that memory will be refreshed anytime soon. What's this next week looking like after the mini cold bout this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 I consider this all good news! I can't remember the last time we had a front-loaded winter, and it does not look like that memory will be refreshed anytime soon. What's this next week looking like after the mini cold bout this weekend? Mild. We do have high pressure over us though and this time of the year you can still get pretty chilly at night...so a few days might be mild days but chill quickly at night in the rad spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 I consider this all good news! I can't remember the last time we had a front-loaded winter, and it does not look like that memory will be refreshed anytime soon. What's this next week looking like after the mini cold bout this weekend? Well, not sure how good it is if you have a semi-permanent trough over the Rockies and SW US. My point is that it isn't a complete void of colder air from Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Well, not sure how good it is if you have a semi-permanent trough over the Rockies and SW US. My point is that it isn't a complete void of colder air from Canada. Mild. We do have high pressure over us though and this time of the year you can still get pretty chilly at night...so a few days might be mild days but chill quickly at night in the rad spots. Understood. I don't mind mild, but it really would be nice to have a good stretch of chilly weather. I know it's somewhat frowned upon to post tweets, but this seemed to get a lot of traffic then slowly die. Any thoughts on this? https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/662992530510868480 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Understood. I don't mind mild, but it really would be nice to have a good stretch of chilly weather. I know it's somewhat frowned upon to post tweets, but this seemed to get a lot of traffic then slowly die. Any thoughts on this? https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/662992530510868480 That is basically the time period I have in my 8 weeks for a early season chance, I don't think it persists but if my calcs are close it could be an interesting 7-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Understood. I don't mind mild, but it really would be nice to have a good stretch of chilly weather. I know it's somewhat frowned upon to post tweets, but this seemed to get a lot of traffic then slowly die. Any thoughts on this? https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/662992530510868480 I can't access twitter at work...so no idea what it says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 I can't access twitter at work...so no idea what it says. It was a tweet from Mike V saying the last time we had IO forcing like this., 3-5 weeks later that pattern flipped to colder east. Probably indicating the natural eastward progression of typical forcing. Whether it happens remains to be seen...but makes sense I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 40's-50's daytime highs and 20's-30's night time lows have been the theme up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 It was a tweet from Mike V saying the last time we had IO forcing like this., 3-5 weeks later that pattern flipped to colder east. Probably indicating the natural eastward progression of typical forcing. Whether it happens remains to be seen...but makes sense I guess. That would be pretty nice timing if it happened like that. That puts us anywhere from about Dec 1 to Dec 15 when (if) we flip colder. I will definitely want to see start seeing more solid Aleutian low placement on the EC ensembles over the next week or so showing up consistently near the end of the their run to gain some optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 I can't access twitter at work...so no idea what it says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Seasons in seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 I can't access twitter at work...so no idea what it says.Not even on your phone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Not even on your phone? I'm not going to browse on my phone while on my computer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 I'm not going to browse on my phone while on my computerHow come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Will's ski trip to CO looking better and better on Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Will's ski trip to CO looking better and better on Euro. That's such a good pattern out west...a deep trough every 3-5 days seemingly. Just one after another. Gonna be a great early season out there. We'll just have to see if the good pattern for them holds through December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Looking somewhat toasty later next week. I'm liking this late season warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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