CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Weeklies look very similar to the end of the Euro ensembles. Split flow look with troughing in the SW US and some zonal flow into NW Canada with slight ridging. Not a Pacific firehose..but not the most wintry for the northeast. The polar vortex probably needs to lift away from AK to help bring cross polar flow. Could be a great pattern for western and especially southwest US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Looks like it cut back to our SW and is dry thru late tomorrow night. It went twds fairly dry Euro. I have a feeling convection going to rob moisture transport. .10-.25 here is my best guess I will take the over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Looks like it cut back to our SW and is dry thru late tomorrow night. It went twds fairly dry Euro. I have a feeling convection going to rob moisture transport. .10-.25 here is my best guess All the changes are at the noise level and slight re-positioning of banding. It didn't trend any way. NEW OLD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Weeklies look very similar to the end of the Euro ensembles. Split flow look with troughing in the SW US and some zonal flow into NW Canada with slight ridging. Not a Pacific firehose..but not the most wintry for the northeast. The polar vortex probably needs to lift away from AK to help bring cross polar flow. Could be a great pattern for western and especially southwest US. Good for my own greedy purposes....I want to see the snowpack build in SW Colorado for my ski trip in a couple months. Awesome pattern for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Good for my own greedy purposes....I want to see the snowpack build in SW Colorado for my ski trip in a couple months. Awesome pattern for it. You definitely going? That's awesome. Telluride? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Problem is if the western ski areas have a great season.. The Eastern resorts generally don't.,Have there been any years where both east and west resorts had bonanza seasons? Hopefully this is just an early thing and it flips around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Problem is if the western ski areas have a great season.. The Eastern resorts generally don't.,Have there been any years where both east and west resorts had bonanza seasons? Hopefully this is just an early thing and it flips around 2010-2011, 2007-2008, 1992-1993 are a few off the top of my head where both east and west had blockbuster seasons. I'm sure there are more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Problem is if the western ski areas have a great season.. The Eastern resorts generally don't.,Have there been any years where both east and west resorts had bonanza seasons? Hopefully this is just an early thing and it flips around Nah, 2010-2011 was a blockbuster winter for both east and west. 2007-2008 was as well. I'll have to look it up a little more, but it does happen quite a bit. Its not an all or nothing type thing. Both areas often have average seasons too...it may not be blockbuster in both spots, but its not horrible either. That's what happens the most. Its not one gets absolutely crushed and the other has futility records. Those happen, but there are a ton of years when both areas are just averagely solid. Its also hard to quantify because the western U.S. is massive relative to what you are thinking of as "eastern resorts" (VT/NH/western ME)....think from Montana to Taos, New Mexico. Most years there are areas in the west that get crushed and yet areas in the west that are very sub-par (think Tahoe vs. Colorado last winter). Colorado has had a couple good winters in a row, while Sierra have had some of their worst winters on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Personally I think there's some benefit to the west getting hammered...it means lots of moisture in the flow and usually a fairly active storm track. Now that energy may or may not benefit us, but it usually means there's opportunities as its a stormy pattern, especially in the southern stream. If the west is getting shut-out, it usually means we are almost solely relying on the northern stream sending us clippers and Miller B's (which also isn't a bad thing)...but that can run dry too. Getting a good moisture flow coming ashore out west will give us chances down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Personally I think there's some benefit to the west getting hammered...it means lots of moisture in the flow and usually a fairly active storm track. Now that energy may or may not benefit us, but it usually means there's opportunities as its a stormy pattern, especially in the southern stream. If the west is getting shut-out, it usually means we are almost solely relying on the northern stream sending us clippers and Miller B's (which also isn't a bad thing)...but that can run dry too. Getting a good moisture flow coming ashore out west will give us chances down the road. just look at the NOHRSC site, good years happen more than bad, climo says so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Hope the RGEM takes this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Hope the RGEM takes this one It lost. Everything shifted SE as a few folks discussed yesterday..The dry Euro FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 6z RGEM is still wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Up the post count! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Up the post count! Keep on with horrific analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Keep on with horrific analysis.Look at trends of overnight globals and tell us what you see. Mostly .50 and under away from coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 It's possible the RGEM is too wet and too far NW, but I think models might be underestimating mid level forcing. It wouldn't shock me to see a narrow area have near or greater than .5" in CT where a few models are much drier...it just may not be wide spread. I just have a hard time buying the dry GFS. It almost reminds me a bit in winter where the convection forces the low to jump too far east. But hey, we'll see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Look at trends of overnight globals and tell us what you see. Mostly .50 and under away from coast This was never a widespread soaking for you...and maybe not even me. But I don't buy the GFS look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 This was never a widespread soaking for you...and maybe not even me. But I don't buy the GFS look.When Euro came in uber dry two runs in a row.. Told me all I needed to know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 It's possible the RGEM is too wet and too far NW, but I think models might be underestimating mid level forcing. It wouldn't shock me to see a narrow area have near or greater than .5" in CT where a few models are much drier...it just may not be wide spread. I just have a hard time buying the dry GFS. It almost reminds me a bit in winter where the convection forces the low to jump too far east. But hey, we'll see I guess.Congrats on limbs down tonight. 45-50 gusts . Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 The NAM pulled back on the pre-0z precip as well. RGEM/SREF on their own now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 When Euro came in uber dry two runs in a row.. Told me all I needed to know Looks similar for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Looks similar for you. Yeah the Euro is very wet late tonight - almost around 12z tomorrow morning. Some of the models had a good slug of rain moving in this afternoon... it appears that that is not going to happen even though the RGEM/SREF keep insisting on it. Models have done poorly overall with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Yeah the Euro is very wet late tonight - almost around 12z tomorrow morning. Some of the models had a good slug of rain moving in this afternoon... it appears that that is not going to happen even though the RGEM/SREF keep insisting on it. Models have done poorly overall with this system. That Aftn stuff may struggle past south coast. I think general light to at times moderate rain develops later tonight as the better dynamics swing in. I just don't buy the gfs, but I think RGEM is too wet as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 That Aftn stuff may struggle past south coast. I think general light to at times moderate rain develops later tonight as the better dynamics swing in. I just don't buy the gfs, but I think RGEM is too wet as well. RGEM is clearly out to lunch even as of 12z. Doesn't have that big blob of convection moving offshore like all the other models have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 RGEM is clearly out to lunch even as of 12z. Doesn't have that big blob of convection moving offshore like all the other models have. Yeah and the GFS is clueless near NJ. Euro too for that matter. RGEM at least doesn't have a mystery blob well SE like the globals. Kind of what you expect with this being no a clear cut nor'easter with strong baroclinicity, but no blob of convection just offshore either. Model mayhem. I'm going with my gut thinking GFS is way too dry, but if I am wrong..at least I know why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 EC ensembles LR bring back the Aleutian low much more....with a split flow +PNA out west. Out in clown range at the end of its run, but that is the type of look we will be looking for in winter. Of course, if a -NAO can happen, then all the better...but it doesn't really show that part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 EC ensembles LR bring back the Aleutian low much more....with a split flow +PNA out west. Out in clown range at the end of its run, but that is the type of look we will be looking for in winter. Of course, if a -NAO can happen, then all the better...but it doesn't really show that part. Yeah a bit better. It at least allows for colder air into the Plains and not a firehose look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Ggem model suite fail. Lots of dry air today, wouldn't be shocked at partial sunshine for some. Still a slug of decent moisture later tonight into Wed but not 1-2 inch amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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