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Nippy Novie


40/70 Benchmark

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I love these 18z GFS cinema showings ... Today's movie features a D 10, if not historic, certainly a histrionic monster storm that drops 30" of synoptic snow on VT followed by almost that much in an epic up-sloping blizzard.   Then 3 or 4 days later ...some kind of hybrid system emerges out of the western Caribbean and does a Sandy parody along the east coast.  

 

It's funny that whenever an errant (or not) run of the oper. GFS attempts to go against the -PNA ...these hyperbolic solutions take place.  Then when it goes more in line, banal... I wonder if there's something to that.  It's like in order for the model to erroneously construct a +PNA, consequently creates a huge amount of phantom instability ... and then that goes on to a computer generated bomb...  

 

Rumor has it .. raging veiny warm ENSO's correlate with +PNAs anyway, particularly ones fed by an STJ.  Haven't seen much evidence of either, frankly.  Although, more S/W moving through the 40th parallel over the WC may be related - 

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Have you issued a winter outlook 4 the year? Any numbers on snow amounts for ENE?

 

I usually don´t do winter outlooks because they are voodoo most of the time. My guess was around 35-45"for BOS or so. That is merely only for fun though. I am sure it wont verify one way or the other...lol. If I had to guess on temps, probably warmer than normal.  Up by you, it will probably be at least normal snowfall..if not perhaps a bit above. Like i said..this is merely for fun...I don´t pretend to have a lot of skill with long range.

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I usually don´t do winter outlooks because they are voodoo most of the time. My guess was around 35-45"for BOS or so. That is merely only for fun though. I am sure it won verify one way or the other...lol. If I had to guess on temps, probably warmer than normal. Up by you, it will probably be at least normal snowfall..if not perhaps a bit above. Like i said..this is merely for fun...I don´t pretend to have a lot of skill with long range.

Thanks. Hope you're right about snowfall.

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Only up here... it gives him over an inch of rain :lol:.  The model has correctly taken the Mt Tolland orographics into account with that bullseye.

 

attachicon.gifgfs_precip_24hr_neng_10.png

 

There may not be enough of a temp gradient, but I think enough dynamics to help drive at least a half inch. It is possible deeper convection robs some needed moisture into the system...but I thought it looked good.

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