CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Euro FTW this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 So much for 70 this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 So much for 70 this week.But but but...I see lots of orange colors on the maps?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 But but but...I see lots of orange colors on the maps?!?! Pretty colors at 18,000ft FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 It looks like euro wants to relax the +AO a bit. It would seem to benefit Beijing this time around, but maybe progress? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Pretty good cold blast next weekend on pretty much all products Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Pretty much no 70 on pretty much all products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 And by the way, euro has a coastal this week. Winter is saved. Suppression depression already in November . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Pretty much no 70 on pretty much all products. Yeah even when the Euro showed that a few days ago..I bought it..but it became apparent it was a no go. The coastal saves the torch from happening] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 I love these 18z GFS cinema showings ... Today's movie features a D 10, if not historic, certainly a histrionic monster storm that drops 30" of synoptic snow on VT followed by almost that much in an epic up-sloping blizzard. Then 3 or 4 days later ...some kind of hybrid system emerges out of the western Caribbean and does a Sandy parody along the east coast. It's funny that whenever an errant (or not) run of the oper. GFS attempts to go against the -PNA ...these hyperbolic solutions take place. Then when it goes more in line, banal... I wonder if there's something to that. It's like in order for the model to erroneously construct a +PNA, consequently creates a huge amount of phantom instability ... and then that goes on to a computer generated bomb... Rumor has it .. raging veiny warm ENSO's correlate with +PNAs anyway, particularly ones fed by an STJ. Haven't seen much evidence of either, frankly. Although, more S/W moving through the 40th parallel over the WC may be related - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Suppression depression already in November . f66.gif You are going to get slammed this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 You are going to get slammed this year. It may never snow again. All my posts like that are tongue firmly planted in cheek, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 You are going to get slammed this year. Really going out on a limb saying Stowe has a snowy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Really going out on a limb saying Stowe has a snowy winter. Well anomaly wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Well anomaly wise. There seems to be a bit of early consensus for a stormy pattern developing even though we need to sort out the details later about who gets wet and who gets white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Well anomaly wise. I always assume that's what we are talking about...pointless comparing raw values from here to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Models went from highs near 70 Wed from last week to 40's this morning. That coastal low really snuck up on everyone. Even so..looks like .25 for most folks except the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Models went from highs near 70 Wed from last week to 40's this morning. That coastal low really snuck up on everyone. Even so..looks like .25 for most folks except the capeQuick hitter. Nice winds for coastal areas at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Quick hitter. Nice winds for coastal areas at least Yep, a nice little reminder of the season to come. Euro is prety wet, while 6z GFS is suspiciously dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Quick hitter. Nice winds for coastal areas at least Was hoping for more than 1/4 inch of rain for the region..but what can you do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Yeah the models are experiencing wild mood swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Met thoughts on what the LR is looking like for the second half of this month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Yep, a nice little reminder of the season to come. Euro is prety wet, while 6z GFS is suspiciously dry.Have you issued a winter outlook 4 the year? Any numbers on snow amounts for ENE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Have you issued a winter outlook 4 the year? Any numbers on snow amounts for ENE? I usually don´t do winter outlooks because they are voodoo most of the time. My guess was around 35-45"for BOS or so. That is merely only for fun though. I am sure it wont verify one way or the other...lol. If I had to guess on temps, probably warmer than normal. Up by you, it will probably be at least normal snowfall..if not perhaps a bit above. Like i said..this is merely for fun...I don´t pretend to have a lot of skill with long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 I usually don´t do winter outlooks because they are voodoo most of the time. My guess was around 35-45"for BOS or so. That is merely only for fun though. I am sure it won verify one way or the other...lol. If I had to guess on temps, probably warmer than normal. Up by you, it will probably be at least normal snowfall..if not perhaps a bit above. Like i said..this is merely for fun...I don´t pretend to have a lot of skill with long range. Thanks. Hope you're right about snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 I'd be careful about tossing big rain amounts around tomorrow. With the Euro so dry and now the GFS too. Might be one of those deals where only the Cape sees much of anything of consequence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 GFS is dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 GFS is dry? Only up here... it gives him over an inch of rain . The model has correctly taken the Mt Tolland orographics into account with that bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Only up here... it gives him over an inch of rain . The model has correctly taken the Mt Tolland orographics into account with that bullseye. gfs_precip_24hr_neng_10.png There may not be enough of a temp gradient, but I think enough dynamics to help drive at least a half inch. It is possible deeper convection robs some needed moisture into the system...but I thought it looked good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 GFS is dry?Looks like it cut back to our SW and is dry thru late tomorrow night. It went twds fairly dry Euro. I have a feeling convection going to rob moisture transport. .10-.25 here is my best guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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