Damage In Tolland Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Lol...Kevin's argument blown to pieces again by empirical data. 4 years from the 1960s in the top 10. Only one year since 1990 in the top 10 (2001). If we lived in the 1960s weather pattern, he'd never shutup about drought. Top 20 all time drought. Holy cow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 LOL at Euro day 10 ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Top 20 all time drought. Holy cow Since 1949 at the BDL site. That's not even top quartile. Basically dry but nothing extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Since 1949 at the BDL site. That's not even top quartile. Basically dry but nothing extreme.facts got to love them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Normal is 39.15 Look at all the years below 30 and then you have like 8 between 30 and 32 That really is not bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Anyways, dry is good. Helps keep insects at bay. Mother nature needs to even out a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Anyways, dry is good. Helps keep insects at bay. Mother nature needs to even out a bit. What about all the ones flying around now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Joe Furey @StormFurey 1h1 hour ago Current conditions across the country today. Indicative of the current pattern that will continue thru most of Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 And well into December if you believe the Accuweather 45 day forecast. Joe Furey @StormFurey 1h1 hour ago Current conditions across the country today. Indicative of the current pattern that will continue thru most of Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 6, 2015 Author Share Posted November 6, 2015 Sucks. I usually clean up from Novie 6 through the first couple of weeks of December. Said not me. Ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 6, 2015 Author Share Posted November 6, 2015 facts got to love them Overrated. Especially when they don't support you lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Sucks. I usually clean up from Novie 6 through the first couple of weeks of December. Said not me. Ever. It's not an ideal early winter pattern that's for sure, regardless of snowfall averages. I think that can be admitted if this continues for another 2-3 weeks.Right now who cares...but by Turkey time it's nice to see some winter even if everyone's big snow months aren't until Jan/Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Euro ensembles are definitely showing more ridging into AK again near the end of their run and a transition to a colder Canada and northern CONUS...this has shown up the past day or so, and got a bit stronger last night. Now if you are of the belief that they might have the right idea, but they are rushing the change, then this would probably bode well for having a better pattern by the end of the month. But I'd like to see that signal show up robustly for another several days at minimum before buying into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 6, 2015 Author Share Posted November 6, 2015 It's not an ideal early winter pattern that's for sure, regardless of snowfall averages. I think that can be admitted if this continues for another 2-3 weeks. Right now who cares...but by Turkey time it's nice to see some winter even if everyone's big snow months aren't until Jan/Feb. I admit, but do not care in the least. . To be honest, it makes me feel better about my impending outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 6, 2015 Author Share Posted November 6, 2015 Yea, I do wish Princeton could grab 3-6", while I catch hypothermia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Euro ensembles are definitely showing more ridging into AK again near the end of their run and a transition to a colder Canada and northern CONUS...this has shown up the past day or so, and got a bit stronger last night. Now if you are of the belief that they might have the right idea, but they are rushing the change, then this would probably bode well for having a better pattern by the end of the month. But I'd like to see that signal show up robustly for another several days at minimum before buying into it. Yeah definitely an improvement over last two days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 What's the thought on if these are the last 70's of the month we see? I'll say no. At least 1-2 more days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 What's the thought on if these are the last 70's of the month we see? I'll say no. At least 1-2 more days I'd say yes....but it is completely meaningless to me if we hit 65F in the next cutter vs 70F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 6, 2015 Author Share Posted November 6, 2015 What's the thought on if these are the last 70's of the month we see? I'll say no. At least 1-2 more days 12 more. If we see a coastal, then no more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 I'd say yes....but it is completely meaningless to me if we hit 65F in the next cutter vs 70F. Yeah it doesn't mean anything..But when you look at how hard it has generally been to get days into the low-mid 70's in Nov in the past and today is day 4 in a row in the torch towns..with a shot at 80 today..it's ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Yeah it doesn't mean anything..But when you look at how hard it has generally been to get days into the low-mid 70's in Nov in the past and today is day 4 in a row in the torch towns..with a shot at 80 today..it's ugly 80? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Maybe an ASOS station next to a tarmac tickles it one more time, but done for most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Euro ensembles are definitely showing more ridging into AK again near the end of their run and a transition to a colder Canada and northern CONUS...this has shown up the past day or so, and got a bit stronger last night. Now if you are of the belief that they might have the right idea, but they are rushing the change, then this would probably bode well for having a better pattern by the end of the month. But I'd like to see that signal show up robustly for another several days at minimum before buying into it. Interesting ... I don't have Euro ensemble derivatives at my disposal, and am often wondering what they look like after digesting the now and trends of the CDC and CPC. Good to know... Definite, albeit low confidence shift from the GEFs overnight, too. I say low confidence because it's too new. Need to see a bit more continuity for blah blah blah... AO and NAO at CPC are doing that huge positive spike still, but now emerging beyond D7 is a tank in both indices. One issue with that outlook, however ...other than it being D6-10 of course, is that I have seen this behavior in the outlook before. The extended tends to overcompensate for an established trend. The spike is the higher confidence interval; what happens after, could either be a catastrophic tank like it shows, but too often what emerges is a much more relaxed recession, followed by another new positive emergence that offers a continuation of said established trend. In this case, the establishment is a hell numbers everywhere. We'll have to see if the shift gains legs. The PNA is trying ... Got work to do. Hard to say if this recent plague is really keyed into ENSO or not. Many sources keyed into mass-Media didn't waste any time bedding with that idea.. Either way, this is definitely markedly different to the circulation medium over on our side of the hemisphere compared to last year and immediate years prior for that matter.. May be a comment for that winter thread, but it does present an increasing challenge over time for me, to think this winter might benefit from that same sort of lack-luster SJ and dominating -EPO type of circulation - or at least, benefit the same. I could see the -EPO being involved -- there's a multi-decadal oscillatory suggestion that it should. But this ENSO and evidence heretofore definitely shakes things up ..hugely actually. I don't know what to think. Frankly, I thought last winter would be severe based upon the former argument. Then, TG snows flufffed egos, ...only to topple that house of cards in a lackluster December, that really didn't show much hope turning over the New Year... Was ready to throw hands, then... dah dah dunnn! Vindication. But it was weirdly vindicated... The first half of the winter shouldn't have been that drastic standard deviation of suckiness. I mean, there's always going to be eat-it times ... but that December really didn't fit anything. Anyway, any shift to a cooler look is an immediate trend off-set, so heh. I think it would be fascinating if the 2nd half of Novie crashed, because something about all the bluster in certitude and blaming things on the ENSO is eye-rolling and gets more annoying in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 It's like a hair dryer out there... 1500ft outside the office now up to 68F and gusting 45mph out of the SSW. Summit is gusting near 70mph now and set a new record high again. Pretty impressive mild-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Yea, I do wish Princeton could grab 3-6", while I catch hypothermia. lol you are honest I'll give ya that. I always get a chuckle out of your sarcastic "I do wish someone else gets snow while I don't" type posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 lol you are honest I'll give ya that. I always get a chuckle out of your sarcastic "I do wish someone else gets snow while I don't" type posts. Oh yeah he is brutally honest...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 I'll start rooting hard for NNE to get good snow in late November since I like to ski. But otherwise, meh on 11/6. Couldn't care less. Obviously I'd take a snowstorm if offered, but they are still very hard to get this early. Even in the elevated interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 6, 2015 Author Share Posted November 6, 2015 I'll start rooting hard for NNE to get good snow in late November since I like to ski. But otherwise, meh on 11/6. Couldn't care less. Obviously I'd take a snowstorm if offered, but they are still very hard to get this early. Even in the elevated interior. Totally reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Hammertime on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 I'll start rooting hard for NNE to get good snow in late November since I like to ski. But otherwise, meh on 11/6. Couldn't care less. Obviously I'd take a snowstorm if offered, but they are still very hard to get this early. Even in the elevated interior. Yeah it's not bothering me yet. Winter is fairly long. It will bother me if we are still spinning the tires by Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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