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Nippy Novie


40/70 Benchmark

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Sucks.

I usually clean up from Novie 6 through the first couple of weeks of December.

Said not me.

Ever.

It's not an ideal early winter pattern that's for sure, regardless of snowfall averages. I think that can be admitted if this continues for another 2-3 weeks.

Right now who cares...but by Turkey time it's nice to see some winter even if everyone's big snow months aren't until Jan/Feb.

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Euro ensembles are definitely showing more ridging into AK again near the end of their run and a transition to a colder Canada and northern CONUS...this has shown up the past day or so, and got a bit stronger last night.

 

 

Now if you are of the belief that they might have the right idea, but they are rushing the change, then this would probably bode well for having a better pattern by the end of the month.

 

 

But I'd like to see that signal show up robustly for another several days at minimum before buying into it.

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It's not an ideal early winter pattern that's for sure, regardless of snowfall averages. I think that can be admitted if this continues for another 2-3 weeks.

Right now who cares...but by Turkey time it's nice to see some winter even if everyone's big snow months aren't until Jan/Feb.

I admit, but do not care in the least. . :lol:

To be honest, it makes me feel better about my impending outlook.

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Euro ensembles are definitely showing more ridging into AK again near the end of their run and a transition to a colder Canada and northern CONUS...this has shown up the past day or so, and got a bit stronger last night.

 

 

Now if you are of the belief that they might have the right idea, but they are rushing the change, then this would probably bode well for having a better pattern by the end of the month.

 

 

But I'd like to see that signal show up robustly for another several days at minimum before buying into it.

 

Yeah definitely an improvement over last two days or so. 

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I'd say yes....but it is completely meaningless to me if we hit 65F in the next cutter vs 70F.

Yeah it doesn't mean anything..But when you look at how hard it has generally been to get days into the low-mid 70's in Nov in the past and today is day 4 in a row in the torch towns..with a shot at 80 today..it's ugly

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Euro ensembles are definitely showing more ridging into AK again near the end of their run and a transition to a colder Canada and northern CONUS...this has shown up the past day or so, and got a bit stronger last night.

 

 

Now if you are of the belief that they might have the right idea, but they are rushing the change, then this would probably bode well for having a better pattern by the end of the month.

 

 

But I'd like to see that signal show up robustly for another several days at minimum before buying into it.

 

Interesting ...

 

I don't have Euro ensemble derivatives at my disposal, and am often wondering what they look like after digesting the now and trends of the CDC and CPC. Good to know... 

 

Definite, albeit low confidence shift from the GEFs overnight, too.  I say low confidence because it's too new.  Need to see a bit more continuity  for blah blah blah...

 

AO and NAO at CPC are doing that huge positive spike still, but now emerging beyond D7 is a tank in both indices.  One issue with that outlook, however ...other than it being D6-10 of course, is that I have seen this behavior in the outlook before. The extended tends to overcompensate for an established trend.  The spike is the higher confidence interval; what happens after, could either be a catastrophic tank like it shows, but too often what emerges is a much more relaxed recession, followed by another new positive emergence that offers a continuation of said established trend.  In this case, the establishment is a hell numbers everywhere.   We'll have to see if the shift gains legs.

 

The PNA is trying ... Got work to do.  Hard to say if this recent plague is really keyed into ENSO or not. Many sources keyed into mass-Media didn't waste any time bedding with that idea.. Either way, this is definitely markedly different to the circulation medium over on our side of the hemisphere compared to last year and immediate years prior for that matter..

 

May be a comment for that winter thread, but it does present an increasing challenge over time for me, to think this winter might benefit from that same sort of lack-luster SJ and dominating -EPO type of circulation - or at least, benefit the same.  I could see the -EPO being involved -- there's a multi-decadal oscillatory suggestion that it should. But this ENSO and evidence heretofore definitely shakes things up ..hugely actually. I don't know what to think.  Frankly, I thought last winter would be severe based upon the former argument. Then, TG snows flufffed egos, ...only to topple that house of cards in a lackluster December, that really didn't show much hope turning over the New Year... Was ready to throw hands, then... dah dah dunnn!  Vindication. But it was weirdly vindicated...  The first half of the winter shouldn't have been that drastic standard deviation of suckiness.  I mean, there's always going to be eat-it times ... but that December really didn't fit anything. 

 

Anyway,  any shift to a cooler look is an immediate trend off-set, so heh.  I think it would be fascinating if the 2nd half of Novie crashed, because something about all the bluster in certitude and blaming things on the ENSO is eye-rolling and gets more annoying in time. 

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I'll start rooting hard for NNE to get good snow in late November since I like to ski.

 

But otherwise, meh on 11/6. Couldn't care less. Obviously I'd take a snowstorm if offered, but they are still very hard to get this early. Even in the elevated interior.

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I'll start rooting hard for NNE to get good snow in late November since I like to ski.

But otherwise, meh on 11/6. Couldn't care less. Obviously I'd take a snowstorm if offered, but they are still very hard to get this early. Even in the elevated interior.

Yeah it's not bothering me yet. Winter is fairly long. It will bother me if we are still spinning the tires by Thanksgiving.

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