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Nippy Novie


40/70 Benchmark

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that d9/10 scenario (...well, guess it's 8.5/9.5) on the operational Euro is a classic teleconnector tweener system.  basically, it's contained within its own mass field and operates in a sort of disconnect from the standard statistical spatial correlations. 

 

that's code for, happening despite of the teleconnector argument(s). 

 

you notice that up across southern canada, as that system over the contiguous US moves e of the Rockies, there is a ridge rolling out immediately astride in N latitudes.  that is a 'progressive rex block, where the high and the low are a mass-balanced couplet; balanced is the key term.  the standard tele correlation on a positive nao/-pnap may not be as useful, because the coupled rex system as a whole fits snuggly inside those larger domain spaces with lots of room to spare.  in terms of conserving mass, all numbers are square in this case. 

 

more code for a coolish system could take place and be sort of missed for lack of better term, in the ensemble derived probabilities.  interesting.  

 

that's not a prediction for a winter event -- more a boost to confidence for a system of some sort actually being there...  but i would offer that a polar high lurking through se canada would impose a cold wedge in the lowest levels.   i have my doubts that system would cut west anyway, because the ridge node rippling along up there is block - models will dismantle those too fast at all scales. 

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....heh, I still say ice is a real possibility should that U/A pattern pearl out and become less cohesively one entity like this run... 

 

three cycles, three variations, but at least we have consistency for SOMEthing to be there in that time frame. 

 

Note the migrating/progressive rex configuration in there, too - that's going to be pivotal in profiling along the 40th parallel because that local scale block N of superior supplies a cold thickness... (discussed all that earlier)

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Congrats Sunday River on the Euro.

 

I dunno, the day 10 snow maps like Wildcat and Cannon a bit better.  ;)

 

I love wxbell, haha.  Allows you to take the crude snow graphic (anything under 0C H85 is snow I think), and then apply a 15:1 ratio to it... gives a low-end warning criteria snowfall here and 12-16" for the Whites into Maine. 

 

You can make the maps look how you want them to look, haha.

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Well as we surmised several days back..that wave moving east may finally be giving us a different look after mid month. Some deeper troughing east of Rockies and signs of ridging south of AK. Still an AK trough, but it's showing signs of lifting out. Knowing how models rush things my guess is probably nothing terribly interesting until after the 20th or so. If at all.

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Well as we surmised several days back..that wave moving east may finally be giving us a different look after mid month. Some deeper troughing east of Rockies and signs of ridging south of AK. Still an AK trough, but it's showing signs of lifting out. Knowing how models rush things my guess is probably nothing terribly interesting until after the 20th or so. If at all.

We/ lol kevspeak

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