Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Any good news long range after holiday weekend torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 On 11/19/2015 at 11:29 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Any good news long range after holiday weekend torch? GEFS look decent...EC ensembles are back to showing an ugly pattern for early December. This is a game we'll probably be playing for a while until the model volatility calms just a bit. It's been changing run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 On 11/19/2015 at 11:29 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Any good news long range after holiday weekend torch? serious question do you look at anything besides 850? Here is your weekend torch starting with Turkey day on the Euro 45,46,50 maybe 55 Sunday, enjoy the heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 On 11/19/2015 at 12:59 PM, Ginx snewx said: serious question do you look at anything besides 850? Here is your weekend torch starting with Turkey day on the Euro 45,46,50 maybe 55 Sunday, enjoy the heat And what are normals Sat/Sun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Seems somewhat promising @BigJoeBastardi: ECMWF ensemble means for days 11-14IMO promoting snow threat from southern high plains thru midwest into n ma and ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 On 11/19/2015 at 1:13 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Seems somewhat promising @BigJoeBastardi: ECMWF ensemble means for days 11-14IMO promoting snow threat from southern high plains thru midwest into n ma and ne. SWFE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 EPS ENS do have an an anomalously low area of pressure at the BM 300 hr with -5 850's overhead but Meh, this stuff has wildly gyrated every run. Interesting JB is correct but we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 EC gets troughing into AK and GOAk in the 11-15 day which isn't the greatest wintry pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 On 11/19/2015 at 1:23 PM, CoastalWx said: EC gets troughing into AK and GOAk in the 11-15 day which isn't the greatest wintry pattern. Interesting in the amount of cold that is at 850 on the EPS Ens, pretty weird setup with duel 5H maxes and the PV elongated near Hudson Bay. So you end up with lower 850 heights thruout the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 We have leftover cold in the 11-15 from the original EPO ridge but that pattern would deteriorate quickly on the EC ens. We definitely don't want that. Hopefully it shows somewhat of a reload as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 On 11/19/2015 at 1:37 PM, ORH_wxman said: We have leftover cold in the 11-15 from the original EPO ridge but that pattern would deteriorate quickly on the EC ens. We definitely don't want that. Hopefully it shows somewhat of a reload as we get closer. either something is wrong with the EPS maps or their is a ton of low level cold under those high 5h heights. Just weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Fropa snow ( rain. To snow ) when that first real cold shot passes through early Dec? That maybe our first inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 That is some pretty bitter cold diving into Rockies and Plains on all models. Really impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 On 11/19/2015 at 1:48 PM, Ginx snewx said: either something is wrong with the EPS maps or their is a ton of low level cold under those high 5h heights. Just weird It's not too strange because the heights in AK are newly lowered late in the period so there is a lot of leftover cold from the initial onslaught. But you can see Canada already getting flooded with PAC air from the west in the last couple days of the run. We def wouldn't want that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 On 11/19/2015 at 1:48 PM, Ginx snewx said: either something is wrong with the EPS maps or their is a ton of low level cold under those high 5h heights. Just weird You mean out here in the extended or this cold shot out west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 On 11/19/2015 at 1:55 PM, dendrite said: You mean out here in the extended or this cold shot out west? 11-15 thruout the northern part of the USA and Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 On 11/19/2015 at 1:52 PM, CoastalWx said: That is some pretty bitter cold diving into Rockies and Plains on all models. Really impressive. Yea that is impressive what an awesome start to ski season out there Will fTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 this may typify the winter actually... been mentioning this before from time to time, but with large opposing correlation sources (Warm ENSO -vs- multi-decadal AA NP) being in play, at least intuitively it seems massive swings between anomaly types and pattern volatility would be probable over any locking into a pattern. we'll see. could lock either way for 3 or 4 week stints too. but i don't think it could be objectively argued otherwise, that the current -EPO construct hearkens to the previous events. nor the opposition in having a warm enso up underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 On 11/19/2015 at 2:28 PM, Typhoon Tip said: this may typify the winter actually... been mentioning this before from time to time, but with large opposing correlation sources (Warm ENSO -vs- multi-decadal AA NP) being in play, at least intuitively it seems massive swings between anomaly types and pattern volatility would be probable over any locking into a pattern. we'll see. could lock either way for 3 or 4 week stints too. but i don't think it could be objectively argued otherwise, that the current -EPO construct hearkens to the previous events. nor the opposition in having a warm enso up underneath. Funny, on an admittedly anecdotal level, back earlier in the fall I had been questioning as to why the positive NAO-persistence train had a much lengthier passenger list than its -EPO counterpart, aside from generic el nino climo.......which if ever was to be called into question it would be this year. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 On that note, I never have committed to one side or the other with regard to the EPO as of yet. Waiting a bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 On 11/18/2015 at 9:29 PM, ORH_wxman said: It's about 3 inches in ORH, but around an inch only for BOS....of course a standard deviation is more than the mean, so no sense in expecting average in any given year. Yup. April is even crazier (or more stochastic?) Mean is 5.2", CV is 174%. Top 3 of 17 Aprils: 37.2", 15.6", 6.2". Bottom 3: Zero, zero, zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Thurs to Sat 40's low 50s then Arctic front Sun afternoon on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Wow https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=16&ved=0CDMQjBAwD2oVChMIzP2wqYGdyQIVxSgmCh3PHwY5&url=http%3A%2F%2Fdroughtmonitor.unl.edu%2FHome%2FRegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx%3Fnortheast&usg=AFQjCNGsSP-tj7HZbkT8shu5u_v8w72tEQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 First week of Dec still looks good for a possible coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 On 11/19/2015 at 5:29 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Wow https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=16&ved=0CDMQjBAwD2oVChMIzP2wqYGdyQIVxSgmCh3PHwY5&url=http%3A%2F%2Fdroughtmonitor.unl.edu%2FHome%2FRegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx%3Fnortheast&usg=AFQjCNGsSP-tj7HZbkT8shu5u_v8w72tEQ Have you always had this drought fetish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 On 11/19/2015 at 5:59 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Have you always had this drought fetish? For about 2-3 years now...I remember he got obsessed in spring 2013 and then we got like 8 inches of rain in 3 weeks right after he started pimping it, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 On 11/19/2015 at 6:02 PM, ORH_wxman said: For about 2-3 years now...I remember he got obsessed in spring 2013 and then we got like 8 inches of rain in 3 weeks right after he started pimping it, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 On 11/19/2015 at 5:59 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Have you always had this drought fetish?Since I was a young child Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 On 11/19/2015 at 5:59 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Have you always had this drought fetish? You'd think he was an old timer with bad memories of the Dust Bowl. "So dry. Dust everywhere. We was forced off the farmstead. Headed out Californie-way looking for work, but they didn't take kindly to no Okies." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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