Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 On 11/18/2015 at 7:22 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: it's also total bootleg "cold". stagnant garbage from that E Canada high. surface temps may not be all that high...but it's a torch set-up overall. as a short guy from Wilmington once said no one lives at 850/500 lol. bootleg or not its pretty typical Nov behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Won't end up like that. Those recurves gonna change modeling next couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 On 11/18/2015 at 7:22 PM, ORH_wxman said: I hope we keep this look for December, lol...I think we'd end up pretty good. Maybe ease the SW trough just a tad...but it would remind me of some of those setups in Dec 2007 and Dec 2008. yeah thought the same. fear is we lose the epo in a few weeks. but...i guess we'll see how it shakes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 On 11/18/2015 at 7:22 PM, Ginx snewx said: immediately thought of Dec 07 when I saw that More '08 for me...but yeah, gradient pattern for sure. '08 had the massive EPO ridge...Dec '07 had a more disconnected one north of AK. But here is the snow blitz period in December 2008...pretty uncanny how similar it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 On 11/18/2015 at 7:25 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: yeah thought the same. fear is we lose the epo in a few weeks. but...i guess we'll see how it shakes out. I think we do, the cold supply cuts off, HP in Canada over the top we warm for a couple of weeks, Christmas week is intriguing to me , still up in the air as how that shakes out. Another AO stretch at that time may pop the EPO this time with longer wavelengths we break the Grinchs balls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 On 11/18/2015 at 7:24 PM, Ginx snewx said: as a short guy from Wilmington once said no one lives at 850/500 lol. bootleg or not its pretty typical Nov behavior. i bet those 2m temps tickle up a little higher...we'll see. i agree...no 60s though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 On 11/18/2015 at 7:26 PM, ORH_wxman said: More '08 for me...but yeah, gradient pattern for sure. '08 had the massive EPO ridge...Dec '07 had a more disconnected one north of AK. But here is the snow blitz period in December 2008...pretty uncanny how similar it is. Yea 08, my mind is no where as concise as you lol but yea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 On 11/18/2015 at 7:24 PM, Ginx snewx said: as a short guy from Wilmington once said no one lives at 850/500 lol. bootleg or not its pretty typical Nov behavior. of course...but on the flip side...for the folks who are looking for actual winter-like weather, that pattern's obviously not gonna cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 On 11/18/2015 at 7:28 PM, dendrite said: i bet those 2m temps tickle up a little higher...we'll see. i agree...no 60s though. Clouds and onshore from the days preceding then no wind would make it hard to mix out the bootleg stuff, of course this is 8-10 days away maybe Kevs Typhoon will switch things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 On 11/18/2015 at 7:26 PM, ORH_wxman said: More '08 for me...but yeah, gradient pattern for sure. '08 had the massive EPO ridge...Dec '07 had a more disconnected one north of AK. But here is the snow blitz period in December 2008...pretty uncanny how similar it is. I wouldn't bite off that one just yet. I know no one is, just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 On 11/18/2015 at 7:29 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: of course...but on the flip side...for the folks who are looking for actual winter-like weather, that pattern's obviously not gonna cut it. i guess not lol, but knowing my climo is .7' of snow in Nov probably not a time to look for winter weather quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 On 11/18/2015 at 7:32 PM, Ginx snewx said: i guess not lol, but knowing my climo is .7' of snow in Nov probably not a time to look for winter weather quite yet.Chance you get that on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 everyone sees where the Euro is going post day 10 right? Hang on to your hats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 On 11/18/2015 at 7:32 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wouldn't bite off that one just yet. I know no one is, just saying... Yeah it's not time to predict a snow blitz like Dec '08...we need to actually get into December to take advantage of that type of pattern...we're still too early in the season to start getting gradient setup snow events for the most part...but some of the guidance (GEFS again at 12z) do show a bit of an EPO reload around Dec 1...EC ensembles have been toying with the idea too on and off and if that happened, then we could have an interesting period in early December....but we'll just have to wait and see. The guidance has been really unstable in the longer range compared to the usual caveats we give for D12-15...so it's truly a "wait and see" type thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 On 11/18/2015 at 7:38 PM, Ginx snewx said: everyone sees where the Euro is going post day 10 right? Hang on to your hats tropical storm landfalling in SC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 On 11/18/2015 at 7:43 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: tropical storm landfalling in SC? expect the unusual this year with that boiling steaming pile and that Siberian High cold. We Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 On 11/18/2015 at 7:43 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: tropical storm landfalling in SC? Tremendous air mass differences with a 1040 high over Montana with energy driving into the base of the trough in the SW all the while digging east, very easy for a prolific storm to erupt loaded with tropical moisture. Something to watch if modeled correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 On 11/18/2015 at 5:30 PM, Ginx snewx said: Meh 50's the new torch, who cares. My .7 snow climo is in jeopardy. I believe the point is, we've wasted an entire winter month worth of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 On 11/18/2015 at 8:26 PM, OceanStWx said: I believe the point is, we've wasted an entire winter month worth of snow. Only to the ones that believe its a winter month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Nov. avg here is 4.5". Of course, the CV is 115% so consistency is not what to expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 On 11/18/2015 at 9:18 PM, tamarack said: Nov. avg here is 4.5". Of course, the CV is 115% so consistency is not what to expect. 4.3" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 On 11/18/2015 at 9:18 PM, tamarack said: Nov. avg here is 4.5". Of course, the CV is 115% so consistency is not what to expect. It's about 3 inches in ORH, but around an inch only for BOS....of course a standard deviation is more than the mean, so no sense in expecting average in any given year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 On 11/18/2015 at 8:34 PM, dryslot said: Only to the ones that believe its a winter month It is a good month to boost the seasonal tally and do some damage relative to normal though...might not average much, but if you can pull an 8-12" event or something (like last year for example), it definitely makes the snow season longer. Average here is 8-10" for November. I know J.Spin is around 12", and I'm probably 2-3" under that. Mansfield averages 1.25" per day at this point, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 On 11/18/2015 at 9:55 PM, powderfreak said: It is a good month to boost the seasonal tally and do some damage relative to normal though...might not average much, but if you can pull an 8-12" event or something (like last year for example), it definitely makes the snow season longer. Well, I certainly don't bank on it year after year, If you happen to catch one like last year, Yeah it's gravy, But if we see 0, That is not a shock either as avgs are small for November so there are many years that we don't see any snow at all Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Man.. Tough one this year. Looks like most of us may get no snow accumulation this month which is pretty rare. Unless the squalls on Sunday can coat things up .seems that's the only hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 On 11/18/2015 at 7:22 PM, ORH_wxman said: I hope we keep this look for December, lol...I think we'd end up pretty good. Maybe ease the SW trough just a tad...but it would remind me of some of those setups in Dec 2007 and Dec 2008. Hmmm...if we pull off a good December this year, it could be off to the races. Admittedly, a really good snowfall year will likely still pale in comparison to last year's record season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 All seems very normal to me this fall. Some warmer periods, some cooler periods like early next week ... Followed by mid/ upper 40's stuff. Not bad. Season in season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Gotta love the sub-zero temps in Texas on the 00z GFS clown range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 On 11/19/2015 at 5:04 AM, ORH_wxman said: Gotta love the sub-zero temps in Texas on the 00z GFS clown range. Finishes the run with some snowfall here as well. Lots of time to watch this , I feel confident on a few days of cold early next week and than a colder shot the 1st week of December but getting the right setup and storm track is a waiting game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Too bad we can't get that srn s/w to go negative on Monday. Would allow that system offshore to come closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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