Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 On 11/13/2015 at 11:51 AM, CoastalWx said: Not sure you guys do it. Berks will. Either way, one cool day amid blood red torch. We bloom.Waych the door early next week.no 70's any more. Just 50's which is manageable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 On 11/13/2015 at 11:58 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Waych the door early next week.no 70's any more. Just 50's which is manageable What ever keeps you comfortable in your footie pajamas. NE flow turns to south and torches later in week. Accept it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 On 11/13/2015 at 12:00 PM, CoastalWx said: What ever keeps you comfortable in your footie pajamas. NE flow turns to south and torches later in week. Accept it.Yeah south flow off chilly water is a torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 On 11/13/2015 at 12:07 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah south flow off chilly water is a torch Water is in the 50s. Do the dew later next week until T Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Last night's euro says what first half torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 On 11/13/2015 at 12:20 PM, Go Kart Mozart said: Last night's euro says what first half torch? We already torched first half of month. We are pretty mild until sometime on Thanksgiving week, but even then, we may be supportive of lake cutters. However as mentioned before, the first step for now is getting colder air into Canada. If we continue to form a better PNA/EPO..then eventually it will move SE. The problem I see, is that I am not sure that is sustainable as December perhaps goes back to more hostile. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 On 11/13/2015 at 12:26 PM, CoastalWx said: We already torched first half of month. We are pretty mild until sometime on Thanksgiving week, but even then, we may be supportive of lake cutters. However as mentioned before, the first step for now is getting colder air into Canada. If we continue to form a better PNA/EPO..then eventually it will move SE. The problem I see, is that I am not sure that is sustainable as December perhaps goes back to more hostile. We shall see. The consensus for a mild start has been everywhere. But I'm pleasantly surprised at the direction the ensembles are moving in. We could start December with at least a semblance of seasonality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 On 11/13/2015 at 12:33 PM, weathafella said: The consensus for a mild start has been everywhere. But I'm pleasantly surprised at the direction the ensembles are moving in. We could start December with at least a semblance of seasonality. I agree. We may be able to hopefully benefit from some cold seeping SE. I'm not holding my breathe though with this lasting through December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 You can see the continued improvement in the ensembles...this s definitely a better pattern for getting some cold in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 On 11/13/2015 at 12:26 PM, CoastalWx said: We already torched first half of month. We are pretty mild until sometime on Thanksgiving week, but even then, we may be supportive of lake cutters. However as mentioned before, the first step for now is getting colder air into Canada. If we continue to form a better PNA/EPO..then eventually it will move SE. The problem I see, is that I am not sure that is sustainable as December perhaps goes back to more hostile. We shall see. You think the GOA hellbent for leather pattern comes back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 On 11/13/2015 at 12:53 PM, ORH_wxman said: You can see the continued improvement in the ensembles...this s definitely a better pattern for getting some cold in here. the times they are a changin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 A 7-10 day window in Dec has been my call before we revert until Jan. Lets do this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 On 11/13/2015 at 12:54 PM, Damage In Tolland said: You think the GOA hellbent for leather pattern comes back? Well I don't know. It may be more of lower heights in the Bering Sea and AK. Part of me feels the weeklies aren't totally jiving with ensembles and not sure I buy a quick return to a lousy pattern as they indicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 On 11/13/2015 at 1:07 PM, Ginx snewx said: A 7-10 day window in Dec has been my call before we revert until Jan. Lets do this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 On 11/13/2015 at 1:08 PM, CoastalWx said: 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 On 11/13/2015 at 1:07 PM, Ginx snewx said: A 7-10 day window in Dec has been my call before we revert until Jan. Lets do this On 11/13/2015 at 1:08 PM, CoastalWx said: Steve ftw, don't hate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 On 11/13/2015 at 1:07 PM, CoastalWx said: Well I don't know. It may be more of lower heights in the Bering Sea and AK. Part of me feels the weeklies aren't totally jiving with ensembles and not sure I buy a quick return to a lousy pattern as they indicate. Someone said Canada will be flushed of all cold again by Dec 3. You buy that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 On 11/13/2015 at 1:09 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Someone said Canada will be flushed of all cold again by Dec 3. You buy that? Kind of a WAG, not sure that quick, but perhaps the idea is there. I think the term flushed out of Canada is a bit ambiguous. We can get by with a few bucks in the bank up there. What you don't want is an all out furnace where a 1045 high is delivering temps barely capable of supporting snow like we saw last December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 On 11/13/2015 at 1:09 PM, Ginx snewx said: 2003 I see a window, too. Doubt we see wall-to-wall ennui, like last year...we'll have a window of opportunity. I mentioned in my outlook that there maybe one significant Dec event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 On 11/13/2015 at 1:28 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I see a window, too. Doubt we see wall-to-wall ennui, like last year...we'll have a window of opportunity. I mentioned in my outlook that there maybe one significant Dec event. Likely transient in nature with deep interior and hills favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 This is an interesting hybrid pattern. STJ and SW trough say Nino. Cold plunging into Plains and SE ridge, say Nina. Of course within any long term ENSO event you can always get temporary shifts in the pattern...but kind of interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 On 11/13/2015 at 1:33 PM, CoastalWx said: This is an interesting hybrid pattern. STJ and SW trough say Nino. Cold plunging into Plains and SE ridge, say Nina. Of course within any long term ENSO event you can always get temporary shifts in the pattern...but kind of interesting. I don't necessarily hate that look for our area if that is how early December comes in. We tend to do better in December when we have more gradient structure to the height field and it looks like central and even eventually eastern Canada could get decent cold. It could all end up for naught though since we're still taking about clown range. But in this hypothetical scenario, I'd be more bullish on our shot for an early December event than typical El Niño climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 On 11/13/2015 at 1:42 PM, ORH_wxman said: I don't necessarily hate that look for our area if that is how early December comes in. We tend to do better in December when we have more gradient structure to the height field and it looks like central and even eventually eastern Canada could get decent cold. It could all end up for naught though since we're still taking about clown range. But in this hypothetical scenario, I'd be more bullish on our shot for an early December event than typical El Niño climo. Yeah I agree. It's good to have the cold up in Canada which to me is important. At the very least..if you extrapolate the pattern out a bit, you could probably have a window for late month or early December. In this case although it's clown range...extrapolation is using an educated guess based on how things flow in meteorology...so perhaps not so much a wild assumption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 Give me gradient all day, every day en Deciembre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 On 11/13/2015 at 1:46 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah I agree. It's good to have the cold up in Canada which to me is important. At the very least..if you extrapolate the pattern out a bit, you could probably have a window for late month or early December. In this case although it's clown range...extrapolation is using an educated guess based on how things flow in meteorology...so perhaps not so much a wild assumption. Maybe we can luck out and get back to back White T-days.... But there's so many ways this pattern could revert to crap late month...that AK ridge doesn't go up north very far, so if it just ends up even flatter than the EC ensembles show, it would be warmer. The models keep screwing around with the idea of a -NAO, but everytime we've gotten closer, it ends up really transient or simply never even achieves negative status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 On 11/13/2015 at 2:01 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Give me gradient all day, every day en Deciembre. Agreed! December 2007 and 2008 esque? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 On 11/13/2015 at 2:38 PM, ORH_wxman said: Maybe we can luck out and get back to back White T-days.... But there's so many ways this pattern could revert to crap late month...that AK ridge doesn't go up north very far, so if it just ends up even flatter than the EC ensembles show, it would be warmer. The models keep screwing around with the idea of a -NAO, but everytime we've gotten closer, it ends up really transient or simply never even achieves negative status. Yep, who knows. At least I haven't seen any concerning changes over the last few days on the ensembles as we have gotten closer. For now it's more of a cold dump into the Plains. You figure one of these storms shoves it east to hopefully set the stage for something, even if it's an interior mixed precip deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 On 11/13/2015 at 2:45 PM, NorEastermass128 said: Agreed! December 2007 and 2008 esque? I would pump those brakes for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2015 Author Share Posted November 13, 2015 On 11/13/2015 at 2:45 PM, NorEastermass128 said: Agreed! December 2007 and 2008 esque? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 I like seeing the last couple runs of the EPS kicking the Vortex out into Siberia...hopefully it's gaining some support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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