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Heavy Rain Threat - 10/28-29


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I don't know where you are but here in Ramsey when the heaviest rains have been falling it has been quite gusty. My umbrella at lunch time acted more like a parachute. 

same here, wind driven moderate rains and leaves flying everywhere.  Looks like a break coming up based on radar before the heavier stuff comes in

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How many times are misinformed posters going to call bust before the forecasted start of an event?

The heaviest rains were always forecasted to arrive after 18z and a good chunk will probably wait until after 00z if the HRRR has the correct idea.

You could have quoted me. First of all you're the rain King.

I'm going for the seasonal trend twords drier and the fact that these events in the past often come through with a tiny rope thin squall line.

For the Ammounts you are talking about to verify I would like to see a wall of rain incomming

Let's see who's right before you call me out by the way. You saying what you want to happen, has (it hasn't) is essentialy the same thing as me calling bust

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You could have quoted me. First of all you're the rain King.

I'm going for the seasonal trend twords drier and the fact that these events in the past often come through with a tiny rope thin squall line.

For the Ammounts you are talking about to verify I would like to see a wall of rain incomming

Let's see who's right before you call me out by the way. You saying what you want to happen, has (it hasn't) is essentialy the same thing as me calling bust

I don't know what's going on out on Long Island but here in NJ it's been raining moderately to heavily in squalls since 8AM. The mesoscale modeling continues to show the rain coming in waves and isn't forecasted to taper off until the front passes sometime during the early morning hours. We have at least the next 12 hours to go.

 

The latest modeling is pretty much locked in, and has been for quite some time with inland areas being favored.

 

HRRR_QPFtotal_ne_f15.png?v=1446056477

 

RAP_QPFtotal_ne_f18.png?v=1446055316

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You should really update your location in your profile. Northwestern NJ is very broad and can represent multiple conditions during storms.

I wasn't in NW Jersey anyway. I should have said that, but I was in Mahwah like I said above, and there was no wind at all. Towards 2:00 maybe some little gusts here and there.

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Mist and drizzle, mist and drizzle. Even when it appeared to be comming down heavier drop size was tiny more like moderate mist.

I think part of the issue for us is you may be right for your area and I for mine

I could see LI comming in just under and inch on average an you guys between one and 2. I'm not seeing 3" Ammounts with this

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