Animal Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Amazing we finally get rain. Most models knock out an inch plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 25, 2015 Author Share Posted October 25, 2015 I expect it to get more moist.. 0 z gfs hits around 1.5 of rain area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Is this Patricia related? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Is this Patricia related? Yeah it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 26, 2015 Author Share Posted October 26, 2015 Latest from MT Holly NWS. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRETTY MUCH A WASHOUT OF A DAY WITHHEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THE MODELS HAVE COME TO CLOSER TIMINGAGREEMENT AND EVEN A BETTER LOCATION AGREEMENT. A SERLY LLVL ANDLOCATION OF THE BEST FGEN FORCING AND MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE AREALL CENTERING ON UPSLOPE AREAS OF OUR CWA FAVORING LOCATIONS FROMTHE FALL LINE NORTHWESTWARD AS THE MOST PRONE AREAS FOR HEAVYRAIN. ON TOP OF THIS THERE IS VIGOROUS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEPICTED AT300K (NOW 100-150MB) THROUGHOUT OUR CWA DURING THE DAY AS WELL ASTHE WHOLE 500MB FLOW TAKING A NEG TILT LOOK. WE KEYED THE LONGESTDURATION MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN THESE NW AREAS. AS WEDNESDAYDAY PROGRESSES INSTABILITY ALOFT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO OUR CWAAND THIS WOULD SPREAD THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THRUT OUR CWA.WHILE THE HEAVY RAIN REMAINS OUR MOST LIKELY IMPACT, BOTH THE GFSAND WRF-NMMB ARE NOW PREDICTING SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE AS THECOLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. STRONGUNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS WOULD SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF A NCFRB ORMAYBE AN OUTRIGHT LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.EVENT PRECIPITATION TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES. WE HAVEBEEN SO DRY THE LAST TWO WEEKS THAT CURRENTLY NONE OF THE GEFS/NAEFSOR SREF MMEFS MEMBERS HAVE ANY OF OUR GAGED RIVERS AND CREEKSGETTING TO CAUTION STAGE.THURSDAY...IF THE GULF COAST SYSTEM DID NOT GET RAPIDLY SHEARED, WEWOULD HAVE HAD A COMPLETE TRIPLE PHASE. AS IT IS THE PACIFIC TROFWILL PHASE WITH ENERGY OVER NORTHWEST CANADA BY EARLY THURSDAY. EVENPRECEDING THIS, A PIECE OF THE GULF COAST LOW GETS ABSORBED INTOTHIS PROCESS AND A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVESACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A 500MB CLOSED LOW IS PREDICTED TOINTENSIFY TO SUB 520DM. THIS WILL BE THE ULTIMATE DRIVER OF PUSHINGTHE INITIAL FRONT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. BUT SINCE THE CLOSED LOWIS LIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST OF ERIE AND ONTARIO AND A SOUTHWEST FLOWALOFT RETURNS BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY THE IDEA OF A SECONDARY COLDFRONTAL PASSAGE IS GAINING TRACTION. THERE IS STRONG DPVA PREDICTEDTO PASS THROUGH. THERE ARE LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES AND AT THISPOINT WE IGNORE MODEL MEAN RH FORECASTS AS THEY ARE LESS SKILLFULTHAN 500MB PROJECTIONS. WE HAVE KEPT IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITHHIGHEST POPS NORTH CLOSER TO MODEL DPVA CONSENSUS. GIVEN THAT THEFLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST AGAIN, THE "REAL" COOL AIR WILL LIKELYHAVE TO WAIT FOR THE SECONDARY CFP AND THE DAY (LIKE WEDNESDAY)WILL BE MILDER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 He must be looking at a different map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 If you loop the model, we get a good dump of rain in a short period of time, although 3 inches is probably the upper end as modelomg showing 1.5-2 inches for most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 So should I continue building the ark? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 noon is 16z. at least half of our total rain falls after that on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 the euro looks slower than the gfs but just as wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Bye bye leaves with the rain and the wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Upton's first call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 RGEM is very wet for its run-close to 3.5 inches of rain for many and alot of it falls in a short duration tomorrow evening. - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 The ECMWF is solidly 1-2" areawide with slightly more towards Trenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 The ECMWF is solidly 1-2" areawide with slightly more towards Trenton. Still mixing winds down tmrw too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Still mixing winds down tmrw too? About the same as 00z, maybe slightly windier. Could definitely see some gusts pushing 30-35kts, especially along the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Still mixing winds down tmrw too? 12z Euro has gusts from 34KT sections of NJ to 44KT across LI. I guess we could possibly see locally stronger gusts if the low topped convection can tap more of the LLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Newly updated totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 We need to the rain to give the plants/trees one last drink before hybernation. I have never needed to water mums before as it usually consistently wet this time of year and evaporation rates are way down. But the mums on campus look like crap. And this is the heart of Manhattan so we haven't been close to frost. As far as winds looks to be a run of the mill windy day. The squall line appears to be the only hope for something interesting aka above 40mph. Bye bye leaves regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 The 00z RGEM is solidy 3-4" almost area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 28, 2015 Author Share Posted October 28, 2015 Decent rain event is at the door step. Local forecast is for around 1.5 to 2 inches of rain. NWS mentions possibly a T storm this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 What heavy rain threat? Looks like the stratform event is shtting the bed. If you're relying on convection for your heavy rain 1-2" Ammounts good luck. This time of year with these type events we tend to see a rope thin low top squall line where it pours for 20 minutes max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 I think time will tell, the water vapor loop is pretty interesting. Well defined jet streaks are moving into our region. Should be steady rain later on today into early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Gale warning until 6am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 How many times are misinformed posters going to call bust before the forecasted start of an event? The heaviest rains were always forecasted to arrive after 18z and a good chunk will probably wait until after 00z if the HRRR has the correct idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 One thing that I will say is that for the first time in as long as I can remember, NW sections look to be favored for the heaviest rainfall, especially with regards to the actual front as it comes through late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northshore Blizzard Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 How many times are misinformed posters going to call bust before the forecasted start of an event? The heaviest rains were always forecasted to arrive after 18z and a good chunk will probably wait until after 00z if the HRRR has the correct idea. Upton isn't giving up on their thoughts of how this storm plays out either; the latest forecast map has actually seen the projected rainfall tick up a bit...through 2pm Thursday, 10/29: Created: 10/28/15 9:53 AM EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 How many times are misinformed posters going to call bust before the forecasted start of an event? The heaviest rains were always forecasted to arrive after 18z and a good chunk will probably wait until after 00z if the HRRR has the correct idea. Always happens. How much are the latest HRRR runs showing? And RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Latest RGEM jackpots Western CT and areas just NW of NYC. Screw zone on the NJ coast, which the NAM has as well - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Based on current radar trends and what we've seen from the latest mesoscale modeling, a general 1"+ looks likely for Eastern areas with 1.50"-2.00" likely NW of the city, with isolated amounts exceeding 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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