Thundersnow12 Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Could see 70's Mon-Fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Could see 70's Mon-Fri Couldn't ask for better timing. Will be able to get the remaining yard work done, winterize the mower, and have my deck stained without temp concerns. After this week, bring on the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 31, 2015 Author Share Posted October 31, 2015 Not only are temperature records in jeopardy mid-week, but as mentioned earlier, the end of the week could be a "second season" severe event, especially on the Euro. With this consistency for several days, I'm starting pay attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Not only are temperature records in jeopardy mid-week, but as mentioned earlier, the end of the week could be a "second season" severe event, especially on the Euro. With this consistency for several days, I'm starting pay attention. Yeah the Euro certainly looked impressive with respect to dynamics. The question will be instability as is the case at this time of year but there was a look of a 1-2 punch next week with a system Friday and Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 2008 was the last November there was back to back 70s here the first week of the month. A week later flurries were flying, week after that Chicago had it's first measurable snow and then winter pretty much set in after that. Need a nice stretch of weather to get the yard work finished for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 If we get two systems like the 12z Euro suggested with no instability, that would just be classic 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 2008 was the last November there was back to back 70s here the first week of the month. A week later flurries were flying, week after that Chicago had it's first measurable snow and then winter pretty much set in after that. Need a nice stretch of weather to get the yard work finished for the season. Unfortunately, I don't think 2008 was an El Nino year like this one. I'm of the belief that it will be a mild December. The only year I can find in which a mild November and October was followed by a colder than average December is 1963. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Long way out but GFS looks entertaining around mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Long way out but GFS looks entertaining around mid month. GFS has been pretty consistent showing a good looking storm mid month. If nothing else it looks to be turning colder by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Yea. I hint of something mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Unfortunately, I don't think 2008 was an El Nino year like this one. I'm of the belief that it will be a mild December. The only year I can find in which a mild November and October was followed by a colder than average December is 1963. I was just trying to find a case of back to back 70s during the opening week of November. Went back to 2000 and that was the only year in recent memory. Prior to the super El Niño of 82-83 and 97-98 there was no real sustained warmth in early November around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Snow soon my friend's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Snow soon my friend's! I am looking forward to it! Hopefully we can see some snowflakes flying in November! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Just for kicks, checked out accuweather...more for amusement....check it out...60 mph gusts in the middle of November. What model do they use for long range forecasts? http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/spring-lake-mi/49456/daily-weather-forecast/937?day=25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Vague tweet of the day: How about the second week in November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Just for kicks, checked out accuweather...more for amusement....check it out...60 mph gusts in the middle of November. What model do they use for long range forecasts? http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/spring-lake-mi/49456/daily-weather-forecast/937?day=25 Probably the CFS, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Looking forward to 70s all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Low temps this week will likely be 10+ degrees higher than the normal high temps. Plenty of records going to be broken all across the sub forum. 70 here on Wed, but by Thursday evening things could get interesting with some energy ejecting out of the southwest. Might be cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Looking forward to 70s all week. got a week of mid 50's coming here. bonus time to work outside... last year snow started on Halloween and never really left. MQT noted as much in the beginning of their long term AFD today... winter just around the corner MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE GREAT FOR THOSE FOLKS WHO NEED TO FINISH GETTING SOME ODDS AND ENDS CLEANED UP BEFORE THE SNOW STARTS REALLY FALLING FOR THE SEASON. THE S WORD /SNOW/ LOOKS TO HOLD OUT UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Low 70s in the point Mon-Wed here. Like many of you I'm gonna take advantage and finalize the yard work for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Nice to have the models coming out an hour earlier now. Loaded up the 12z GFS and was surprised at how far it had updated until I remembered the time change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Models showing poor mixing potential the next couple days. If correct, warming would be held in check (still going to be well above average) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Models showing poor mixing potential the next couple days. If correct, warming would be held in check (still going to be well above average)Yeah even with poor mixing we should see 3 days of 70+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Models showing poor mixing potential the next couple days. If correct, warming would be held in check (still going to be well above average) No surprise there, given that we're now dealing with a November sun angle and it gets harder trying to mix out the colder air that settles in at the surface with such short daylight hours. That said, today is overachieving locally with full sunshine and a strong downsloping wind (mid 60s versus the low 60s that were expected). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brohnhdon Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Still 5 days out but for multiple days the Euro has been showing a significant system pushing through the area with favorable timing on Friday with respectable QLCS potential. The SPC hasn't really bought in but I wouldn't be too surprised if we get a D4 slight if the models come into agreement. The GFS has been all over the place but up until 84 hours out, the Euro matches the NAM very well. It'll be interesting to see if the NAM stays in-line with the Euro or the GFS over the next day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 With Indian Summer arriving, figured Id check Detroits November 70F climo. ~Detroit has hit 70F+ in November 54 times on record (141 years). 35 different Novembers had a temp of 70F+. ~The warmest November temp on record is 81F on Nov 1, 1950. ~The most 70F+ days in a November is 3, and this happened in 1944, 1964, 1975, 1978, 1990, & 2005. ~The decade with the least 70F days in November was the 1890s, when not a single 70F was recorded (warmest ). ~The decade with the most 70F days in November was the 1970s, when 10 times hit 70F+. Fun fact: 21 of the 35 winters were colder than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Still 5 days out but for multiple days the Euro has been showing a significant system pushing through the area with favorable timing on Friday with respectable QLCS potential. The SPC hasn't really bought in but I wouldn't be too surprised if we get a D4 slight if the models come into agreement. The GFS has been all over the place but up until 84 hours out, the Euro matches the NAM very well. It'll be interesting to see if the NAM stays in-line with the Euro or the GFS over the next day or so. Stronger system would bring better low level moisture farther north (as is, it's not bad for this time of year) but we'll have to see about mid level lapse rates/instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Still 5 days out but for multiple days the Euro has been showing a significant system pushing through the area with favorable timing on Friday with respectable QLCS potential. The SPC hasn't really bought in but I wouldn't be too surprised if we get a D4 slight if the models come into agreement. The GFS has been all over the place but up until 84 hours out, the Euro matches the NAM very well. It'll be interesting to see if the NAM stays in-line with the Euro or the GFS over the next day or so. Not a fan of the positive tilt trough (GGEM has it also), but I suppose nothing can be ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Still 5 days out but for multiple days the Euro has been showing a significant system pushing through the area with favorable timing on Friday with respectable QLCS potential. The SPC hasn't really bought in but I wouldn't be too surprised if we get a D4 slight if the models come into agreement. The GFS has been all over the place but up until 84 hours out, the Euro matches the NAM very well. It'll be interesting to see if the NAM stays in-line with the Euro or the GFS over the next day or so. An Ohio event? Or just the general area. Sadly, I only have access to the free models till January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brohnhdon Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Indiana & Ohio primarily as it sits right now but I wouldn't consider Illinois, Kentucky, or Michigan out of it. As powerball noted though, there's no negative tilt...just pretty robust shear and helicity numbers. If we can get CAPE over 250 I can see a low-topped line happening. Reminds me of a less intense version of the Halloween 2013 system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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