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November 2015 Discussion


IWXwx

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Pay sites mostly.  You can get smaller increments at Wunderground but I'm not sure it goes out to 240 hours there.

That's true. The Wunderground plots of the Euro can be very helpful. You can use the slider bar to select the time in 6 hour or 3 hour increments. The limit is 180 hours.

 

I have been noticing the NAO has been somewhat positive this October, with fairly strong negative anomalies in western Greenland.

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If anything remotely like this verifies, then we are headed for the warmest strong Nino Fall (at least back to the 1890s). Even a modestly warmer than average November would probably be enough to do it.

CFSv2.NaT2m.20151029.201511.gif

Yup. October should finish with around a +1 positive anomaly, and September finished with +3.7 I believe. That means we will need November to finish at -4.7 just to be near normal. Heck the warmth forecasted for next week, is almost enough to seal Novembers fate.

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Yup. October should finish with around a +1 positive anomaly, and September finished with +3.7 I believe. That means we will need November to finish at -4.7 just to be near normal. Heck the warmth forecasted for next week, is almost enough to seal Novembers fate.

 

Yeah I agree...that first 7-10 days is probably enough to lock it up especially with a lack of any persistent strong cold signal right now for later in the month.

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That time alek said to just ride super Nino status and don't over complicate things;)

 

 

The US temperature pattern definitely hasn't been what you'd expect based on past history.  Obviously you have to look at ENSO, especially when it's this strong, but there's been a curveball thrown this Fall.  One of the things I'm doing with my winter outlook is look at past Falls with similar temperature patterns, regardless of ENSO state, and I think found something worthwhile in regards to winter.  Hope to share it soon.

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The US temperature pattern definitely hasn't been what you'd expect based on past history. Obviously you have to look at ENSO, especially when it's this strong, but there's been a curveball thrown this Fall. One of the things I'm doing with my winter outlook is look at past Falls with similar temperature patterns, regardless of ENSO state, and I think found something worthwhile in regards to winter. Hope to share it soon.

Looking forward to your analysis Hoosier. IMO this fall pattern is going to show its poker face for the winter pattern.

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Did some checking and found that Chicago hasn't had a November high of 70 since 2012 and the last time there were multiple days of 70s was November 2009.  I'd say that's in serious jeopardy.

 

Before getting totally onboard with the torch train, another thing to keep an eye on which could mute the temperature response will be the moisture advection in the 850-925mb region.

 

Given the strong inversion that will be in place along with the deep southerly flow, we could have some stratocumulus issues that will limit insolation, especially once we get into Wednesday and beyond. 

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Before getting totally onboard with the torch train, another thing to keep an eye on which could mute the temperature response will be the moisture advection in the 850-925mb region.

 

Given the strong inversion that will be in place along with the deep southerly flow, we could have some stratocumulus issues that will limit insolation, especially once we get into Wednesday and beyond. 

 

 

That is a concern.  The airmass looks warm enough though that even clouds/poor mixing might not be enough to prevent 70 in Chicago, but we'll see.

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That is a concern. The airmass looks warm enough though that even clouds/poor mixing might not be enough to prevent 70 in Chicago, but we'll see.

I agree, especially with temps at 850 of 15 17 16c on consecutive days per the 12z euro. I'd be floored if that isn't 3 days of at least 70.
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