IWXwx Posted October 27, 2015 Author Share Posted October 27, 2015 November 2013 was funny...it was cold right before that outbreak on the 17th and then got cold again right after. Perfect example of how you can't let your guard down. It felt weird, almost surreal, chasing tornadoes that day after experiencing the previous cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 model consensus on this setup is excellent, this should be good and it looks to have some staying power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 12z GFS continues to advertise an impressive eastern ridge and torch for the early part of the month...could post some huge early departures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 12z GFS continues to advertise an impressive eastern ridge and torch for the early part of the month...could post some huge early departuresPotential is also there for a severe setup somewhere in the region mid to late next week, as the warmth looks to be coupled with unseasonably high dewpoints and the operational runs are progging strong to very strong flow aloft. Will come down to how all the moving pieces interact/phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Severe weather in November excites me about as much as snow in may excites many. I always consider November that in between month. It's too late to enjoy fall colors and too early to enjoy winter (albeit a few brief teases of snow are common). Novembers most unique attribute is that it's the month of seasonal change. No month of the year has a greater disparity between average temps from the first to last of the month. The average high on November 1st at DTW is 56...the average high on November 30th is 41. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Potential is also there for a severe setup somewhere in the region mid to late next week, as the warmth looks to be coupled with unseasonably high dewpoints and the operational runs are progging strong to very strong flow aloft. Will come down to how all the moving pieces interact/phasing. Yeah, keeping an eye on that. Actually not as concerned about moisture return as I normally would be at this time of year as it looks like we'll have a favorable setup to get those higher dewpoints in place in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 If medium range guidance is correct, we are not done with the 70s. For November, it appears it has only happened 28 times in the Twin Cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDanny Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 You simply don't get 70 degrees in November without consequences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 You simply don't get 70 degrees in November without consequences. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 If medium range guidance is correct, we are not done with the 70s. For November, it appears it has only happened 28 times in the Twin Cities. That means it happens about 1 in 6 years. Not exactly rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDanny Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Looked at 00z GFS just now. Noticed the surface low is way up north and thought, "that's not right for this time of year" Then I remembered..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 That means it happens about 1 in 6 years. Not exactly rare. Nope. Still out of the ordinary though, plus aprox. 1/4 of the years had more than 1 day of 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Seems like the GFS is a lot faster then the EURO, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Looked at 00z GFS just now. Noticed the surface low is way up north and thought, "that's not right for this time of year" image.gif Then I remembered..... image.jpg Speaking of the Octobomb, LOT had a nice writeup about it on their page the other day for the 5 year anniversary. Impressive system it was. Very out of the ordinary to get a tornado outbreak to initiate prior to dawn at this latitude, but you expect unusual things with unusual systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 The thing that does concern me about a possible severe threat next week are the model indications of potentially another tropical system making landfall on the Mexican coast in similar fashion to Patricia (hopefully not as intense this time) and that moisture getting drawn northward into the Midwest. If that happens, it may lead to another setup with bad mid level lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 28, 2015 Author Share Posted October 28, 2015 The thing that does concern me about a possible severe threat next week are the model indications of potentially another tropical system making landfall on the Mexican coast in similar fashion to Patricia (hopefully not as intense this time) and that moisture getting drawn northward into the Midwest. If that happens, it may lead to another setup with bad mid level lapse rates. You bring up a good point. However, still looks to be toasty. Alek would approve of this map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 You bring up a good point. However, still looks to be toasty. Alek would approve of this map: 610temp112116.gif 90% probability in the OV...big league Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 support for that eastern ridge has been excellent. it's coming and 70s in November will feel great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 support for that eastern ridge has been excellent. it's coming and 70s in November will feel great. wonder if we come close to 80 at some point next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 wonder if we come close to 80 at some point next week Chicago has only hit 80 in November one time (11/1/1950), so not very good odds. That being said, there are some pretty warm 850 mb temps being advertised and Tuesday in particular has 850 mb temps up near 15C on the latest model runs. If you can get good enough mixing, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Just a quick question for you fellas: Where would you get, say, 12 hour increments of the EURO? The pictures will tell you why I asked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Just a quick question for you fellas: Where would you get, say, 12 hour increments of the EURO? The pictures will tell you why I asked Pay sites mostly. You can get smaller increments at Wunderground but I'm not sure it goes out to 240 hours there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Forecast soundings are always best to look at so you can see mixing depth, etc. but for a quick guess of how far it could be above average, you can multiply the 850 mb temperature anomalies by 1.8 to convert to Fahrenheit and get a general idea of how warm it could get. Using Chicago as an example, the 00z ECMWF had 850 mb temps about 12C above average for next Tuesday. Multiplying by 1.8 gives you approximately 21, which suggests that temperatures could be very warm indeed. Average high for Chicago on November 3 is 55 degrees so you do the math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Folks, I have found the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDanny Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Folks, I have found the cold. cfsUS_850_temp_786.gif I legit just posted that on social media this morning lol most people didn't get past the sarcasm and started freaking out about they hated or loved the big snow coming. D'oh Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Folks, I have found the cold. cfsUS_850_temp_786.gif Holy smokes.. Too bad it's the CFS *Queue some type of emoji* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 The 786 hr CFS is quite reliable. Second to only the 24 hr Brazilian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 The thing that does concern me about a possible severe threat next week are the model indications of potentially another tropical system making landfall on the Mexican coast in similar fashion to Patricia (hopefully not as intense this time) and that moisture getting drawn northward into the Midwest. If that happens, it may lead to another setup with bad mid level lapse rates. This. So many setups with poor lapse rates this year and TCs in the E Pacific isn't going to help that. This year just needs to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Just a quick question for you fellas: Where would you get, say, 12 hour increments of the EURO? The pictures will tell you why I asked The in between low locations 222 hr 1004mb near MSP 228 hr 999mb just north of La Crosse WI 234 hr 993mb just east of Escanaba MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Forecast soundings are always best to look at so you can see mixing depth, etc. but for a quick guess of how far it could be above average, you can multiply the 850 mb temperature anomalies by 1.8 to convert to Fahrenheit and get a general idea of how warm it could get. Using Chicago as an example, the 00z ECMWF had 850 mb temps about 12C above average for next Tuesday. Multiplying by 1.8 gives you approximately 21, which suggests that temperatures could be very warm indeed. Average high for Chicago on November 3 is 55 degrees so you do the math. ecmwf_T850a_us_8.png At 00z Wed the 850mb temp in Chicago is 17C, which is way off the charts for normal. Mixing must be terrible though because it has a max temp of only 69 for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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