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November 2015 Discussion


IWXwx

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November 2013 was funny...it was cold right before that outbreak on the 17th and then got cold again right after. Perfect example of how you can't let your guard down.

 

It felt weird, almost surreal, chasing tornadoes that day after experiencing the previous cold.

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12z GFS continues to advertise an impressive eastern ridge and torch for the early part of the month...could post some huge early departures

Potential is also there for a severe setup somewhere in the region mid to late next week, as the warmth looks to be coupled with unseasonably high dewpoints and the operational runs are progging strong to very strong flow aloft. Will come down to how all the moving pieces interact/phasing.
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Severe weather in November excites me about as much as snow in may excites many. I always consider November that in between month. It's too late to enjoy fall colors and too early to enjoy winter (albeit a few brief teases of snow are common).

Novembers most unique attribute is that it's the month of seasonal change. No month of the year has a greater disparity between average temps from the first to last of the month. The average high on November 1st at DTW is 56...the average high on November 30th is 41.

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Potential is also there for a severe setup somewhere in the region mid to late next week, as the warmth looks to be coupled with unseasonably high dewpoints and the operational runs are progging strong to very strong flow aloft. Will come down to how all the moving pieces interact/phasing.

Yeah, keeping an eye on that. Actually not as concerned about moisture return as I normally would be at this time of year as it looks like we'll have a favorable setup to get those higher dewpoints in place in time.

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Looked at 00z GFS just now. Noticed the surface low is way up north and thought, "that's not right for this time of year"

attachicon.gifimage.gif

Then I remembered.....

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

 

Speaking of the Octobomb, LOT had a nice writeup about it on their page the other day for the 5 year anniversary.

 

Impressive system it was.  Very out of the ordinary to get a tornado outbreak to initiate prior to dawn at this latitude, but you expect unusual things with unusual systems. 

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The thing that does concern me about a possible severe threat next week are the model indications of potentially another tropical system making landfall on the Mexican coast in similar fashion to Patricia (hopefully not as intense this time) and that moisture getting drawn northward into the Midwest.  If that happens, it may lead to another setup with bad mid level lapse rates.

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The thing that does concern me about a possible severe threat next week are the model indications of potentially another tropical system making landfall on the Mexican coast in similar fashion to Patricia (hopefully not as intense this time) and that moisture getting drawn northward into the Midwest.  If that happens, it may lead to another setup with bad mid level lapse rates.

 

You bring up a good point. However, still looks to be toasty. Alek would approve of this map:

 

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wonder if we come close to 80 at some point next week 

 

 

Chicago has only hit 80 in November one time (11/1/1950), so not very good odds.  That being said, there are some pretty warm 850 mb temps being advertised and Tuesday in particular has 850 mb temps up near 15C on the latest model runs.  If you can get good enough mixing, who knows.

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Forecast soundings are always best to look at so you can see mixing depth, etc. but for a quick guess of how far it could be above average, you can multiply the 850 mb temperature anomalies by 1.8 to convert to Fahrenheit and get a general idea of how warm it could get.  Using Chicago as an example, the 00z ECMWF had 850 mb temps about 12C above average for next Tuesday.  Multiplying by 1.8 gives you approximately 21, which suggests that temperatures could be very warm indeed.  Average high for Chicago on November 3 is 55 degrees so you do the math.

 

  post-14-0-26739000-1446060817_thumb.png

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The thing that does concern me about a possible severe threat next week are the model indications of potentially another tropical system making landfall on the Mexican coast in similar fashion to Patricia (hopefully not as intense this time) and that moisture getting drawn northward into the Midwest.  If that happens, it may lead to another setup with bad mid level lapse rates.

 

This.

 

So many setups with poor lapse rates this year and TCs in the E Pacific isn't going to help that. This year just needs to end.

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Just a quick question for you fellas: Where would you get, say, 12 hour increments of the EURO? The pictures will tell you why I asked 

The in between low locations

222 hr 1004mb near MSP

228 hr 999mb just north of La Crosse WI

234 hr 993mb just east of Escanaba MI

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Forecast soundings are always best to look at so you can see mixing depth, etc. but for a quick guess of how far it could be above average, you can multiply the 850 mb temperature anomalies by 1.8 to convert to Fahrenheit and get a general idea of how warm it could get.  Using Chicago as an example, the 00z ECMWF had 850 mb temps about 12C above average for next Tuesday.  Multiplying by 1.8 gives you approximately 21, which suggests that temperatures could be very warm indeed.  Average high for Chicago on November 3 is 55 degrees so you do the math.

 

  attachicon.gifecmwf_T850a_us_8.png

At 00z Wed the 850mb temp in Chicago is 17C, which is way off the charts for normal. Mixing must be terrible though because it has a max temp of only 69 for Tuesday.

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