Gilbertfly Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Nice weatherbo....pretty sweet sunset here too with the cirrus working their way in from the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 18Z GFS so far shows a lake effect snow storm. 3 inches on the Southern MI Lake Shore Up to 8 inches in the UP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 a windy, albeit warmer day today the high was 38... lost around 2" of snow. caught this sunset pic tonight... seemed brighter in person. IMG_3007.JPG how much snow did you end up with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 how much snow did you end up with? about 4" but it was so wet and heavy it settled pretty fast. still have about 1.5" in most areas but even that should go tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 18Z GFS so far shows a lake effect snow storm. 3 inches on the Southern MI Lake Shore Up to 8 inches in the UP. I know you're just commenting about a model run that looks fun for the lake effect belts, but using the truncated GFS QPF to try to guesstimate lake effect snow is such a bad way to go. But, the pattern could be a good one for lake effect at some point with both sets of ensembles shifting the trough axis and cold enough air right across the Great Lakes at some point Thanksgiving week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 5 inches of new snow in Humphrey, NY yesterday (Cattaraugus County) so far in 3 hours. The "real snowbelt" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Had a low of 23 this morning. Coldest temp of the season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Thanksgiving snowstorm for much of the sub on the 00z op GFS. Way out in lala land, but kind of cool since it would be on Turkey day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 That cutoff is painful (this is through hour 384) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 GEM showing a significant snowstorm next weekend! 6-9" from Iowa into Michigan. Much more mild out there tonight, compared to last night. Breezy out of the South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Really? Southeast Michigan Suck Hole? (and yes, this isn't the snow map) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 I wouldn't worry about details on a 10 day qpf map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Thanksgiving snowstorm for much of the sub on the 00z op GFS. Way out in lala land, but kind of cool since it would be on Turkey day. Details up in the air of course but it seems like this late month period is bent on delivering a period of winter. Almost time for our first system snow thread of the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 I wouldn't worry about details on a 10 day qpf map. I know, the IWX and South DTW CWA's are notorious for getting screwed over on this kind of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Details up in the air of course but it seems like this late month period is bent on delivering a period of winter. Almost time for our first system snow thread of the season? Yep all guidance has the cold from Friday into Thanksgiving week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 EMCWF has snow as well, bulls eye is NW Ohio and Central Illinois, 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 -EPO coming right up. We obviously don't need the -NAO, but fwiw, the 00z EC is leaning away from it. Here's the first shot of cold as the first ridge works into Alaska. Now check out the second round of ridging by 240 hours. It is looking like at least a couple cold waves are going to be possible before the +EPO returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 GFS continuing to come in very wintry for late this week/next weekend. Both the GFS and Euro continue to indicate at least a few, if not several waves riding the baroclinic zone with several bands of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 GFS continuing to come in very wintry for late this week/next weekend. Both the GFS and Euro continue to indicate at least a few, if not several waves riding the baroclinic zone with several bands of snow. Interesting evolution on this edition of the GFS. First a weak wave of overrunning snows affect the likes of Dubuque, Quad Cites, Chicago, Milwaukee, then a stronger storm develops and tracks toward Southern Lake Michigan. That would be some nice weather porn snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 GFS continuing to come in very wintry for late this week/next weekend. Both the GFS and Euro continue to indicate at least a few, if not several waves riding the baroclinic zone with several bands of snow. GFS has been very consistent with a cold end to November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasmosnow Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 -EPO coming right up. We obviously don't need the -NAO, but fwiw, the 00z EC is leaning away from it. Here's the first shot of cold as the first ridge works into Alaska. ecmwf_T850a_namer_8.png Now check out the second round of ridging by 240 hours. ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png It is looking like at least a couple cold waves are going to be possible before the +EPO returns. At least we are getting model runs that indicate blocking in the right places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Definitely didn't feel like November today, had a high of 65 at DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 High of 63° today with no clouds to speak of. Had a 37° spread in temps this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 The anniversary of one of Buffalos top lake effect storms is coming up on Tuesday. I put together a quick video of the best pictures and some video that I was able to find. I apologize for a few of the repeats! I hope you guys like it! As a huge lake effect enthusiast I also did some research about the top events to last years storm to see if anything in the history of the area was ever even close to the severity that this event had. Many were close and I still think 1977 beats it quite handily, but it would be # 2 in my book. Here are some of the top events that I was able to research. I gathered some of the data pre 85 on this research paper about the Blizzard of 1977. http://www.nwas.org/...2no03-Dewey.pdf Here are just a few of the note-worthy events. October 18-19 1930 The first lake-effect snowfall of the season in the vicinity of Buffalo, New York usually occurs mid-November. However, in 1930, a lake-effect snowstorm struck the region as early as October 18-19. Over four feet of snow occurred in the southern and western suburbs of Buffalo during this weekend storm stranding many tourists who had been out enjoying the colorful autumn foliage. December 8-10 1937 Wiggin described two examples of a severe lake-effect storm occurrence in Buffalo. The first memorable storm noted by Wiggin occurred during December 8-10 1937. A fall of three feet of snow was observed in North Buffalo and over four feet of snow in the northern suburbs. December 14-18, 1945 The second Lake-effect storm described by Wiggins occurred on December 14-18, 1945. The airport measured 36.6 inches in this particular storm and falls in excess of 70 inches were reported just four to six miles to the south. The governor of New York declared a state of emergency for the western portion of New York. November 22-23, 1956 A Lake Erie induced lake-effect snowstorm on November 22-23, 1956, which produced up to 48 inches of snow just to the south and west of Buffalo. November 22-23 1957 This event repeated itself exactly one year later on November 22-23 1957 in the same area and with similar magnitudes of snowfall of up to 48 inches. December 5-11, 1958 Perhaps the most intense lake-effect storm ever to hit the Buffalo, New York area lasted from December 5-11, 1958. A storm total of six feet (with some unofficial measurements of over eight feet) of snowfall was observed in the snow-belt just south of Buffalo. November 23-24, 1970 A lake-effect snowstorm on November 23-24, 1970 produced only 24 inches of snow, however, the most memorable aspect of this storm was the extensive 12 foot drifts throughout the southern suburbs of Buffalo. November 29-Dec 2, 1976 The lake effect snowstorm originating over Lake Erie during November 29-December 2nd paralyzed activities in portions of the seven western counties of the State. Snowfall amounts exceeded 48 inches in Hamburg and at the Buffalo Airport. December 16-19 1983 Had storm totals of 40" and higher in the city of Buffalo and its surrounding suburbs. Blizzard of 1985On January 18, 1985, Buffalo was hit by the “Six Pack Blizzard.” The storm dropped 33.2 inches of snow with winds gusting to 53 mph. It was during this storm that Mayor Jimmy Griffin told Buffalonians to “Stay inside, grab a six-pack and watch a good football game.” This by far is one of the best lines EVER voiced by a political leader. The storm dropped 33.2 inches with winds gusting to 53 mph. 9-10 December 1995 38 inches of snow in 24 hours. Heart of the metro area hit the hardest. Highest snowfall in 24 hours at KBUF airport. November 20th 2000 25 inches of snow in 24 hours most of which fell from 2-10 pm. December Christmas week 2001 82.6" of snow at KBUF.. Largest lake snow event at KBUF October 12-13 2006 Buffalos earliest season snowfall. 2 feet of snow storm totals. 2007 40+ inches in the Buffalo southtowns. 42" at East Aurora 2010 40+ inches just south of Buffalo and eastern suburbs. Max of 42" at Depew If I had to do a top 10 ranking it would be the following 1.) 1977 2.) 2014 3.) 2001 4.) 1958 5.) 1945 6.) 1930 7.) 1985 8.) 1937 9.) 1956 & 57 Nearly identical events 10.) 2006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 00z euro says thanksgiving day picnic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 snowstorm bust 1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 Morning thunderstorms in mid November rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 strong el nino 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 00z euro says thanksgiving day picnic? The GFS has this too.... It's the warmest day of the 10 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 16, 2015 Share Posted November 16, 2015 strong el nino La Nina 2015 fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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