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November 2015 Discussion


IWXwx

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But it's not winter. This current pattern is very Nina like for this time of year. The warm September also wasn't very strong Nino like. This means nothing about the Winter ahead but I don't know how anyone can say this is a typical strong Nino pattern for early November. I read an article a few days ago that blamed this pattern on El Nino when in reality this isn't Nino like at all for this time of year.

As Ive said many times, this Fall has absolutely defied strong Nino climo. Looking back at the 11 strong El Ninos, the signal for early Fall to be colder than normal was unanimous. Later Fall and winter the signal wasnt unanimous.

 

Could mean absolutely nothing for winter, but if its a case of "speeding up" then Im all for it, because that means the turn to cold in winter would be all the sooner. I will post temp averages in the winter thread, no need to clog up the Nov thread.

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So apparently, Detroit's has an average November temperature of 56.7*F as of today.

 

Even if we just saw generally average temps the rest of the month (which looks to be very much plausible), there's a good chance this will be at least a top 5 warmest November on record (the current warmest November on record being 2001 with an average temp of 46.5*F).

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So apparently, Detroit's has an average November temperature of 56.7*F as of today.

Even if we just saw generally average temps the rest of the month (which looks to be very much plausible), there's a good chance this will be at least a top 5 warmest November on record (the current warmest November on record being 2001 with an average temp of 46.5*F).

Yup pretty crazy with just these first 4-6 days of warmth, that the rest of the month will be hard pressed to erase the positive anomalies, and that's without anymore warm ups, which another mild airmass is forecast for next week, thought not as strong.

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So apparently, Detroit's has an average November temperature of 56.7*F as of today.

 

Even if we just saw generally average temps the rest of the month (which looks to be very much plausible), there's a good chance this will be at least a top 5 warmest November on record (the current warmest November on record being 2001 with an average temp of 46.5*F).

Estimating tomorrows temp (the last day of super warm Indian Summer), Nov through the 5th would have a departure of +13.2F. However, if the 6th-30th came out average, then November would only be about +2. For Detroit to crack the top 5 warmest Novembers, then the 6th-30th would have to average ~+3.5F.

 

The warmest November is actually 1931. Here are the top 5

1.) 47.8F - 1931

2.) 47.6F - 2001

3.) 46.9F - 1902

4.) 46.8F - 1975

5.) 46.6F - 2011

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Estimating tomorrows temp (the last day of super warm Indian Summer), Nov through the 5th would have a departure of +13.2F. However, if the 6th-30th came out average, then November would only be about +2. For Detroit to crack the top 5 warmest Novembers, then the 6th-30th would have to average ~+3.5F.

 

The warmest November is actually 1931. Here are the top 5

1.) 47.8F - 1931

2.) 47.6F - 2001

3.) 46.9F - 1902

4.) 46.8F - 1975

5.) 46.6F - 2011

 

I stand corrected.

 

As mentioned in another post, I wasn't able to find the stats for the pre-1959 years before making that post.

 

Assuming we do continue to see above average temps next week (which is looking increasingly likely), that should help to keep the departures fairly high on the positive side as we head into the middle of the month.

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Interesting note about the November 70F+ days. If DTW hits 70F+ tomorrow, it will be 4 days this month, which would be the most officially for Detroit on record in November (right now 7 years have had 3 days). Its all about where the official station is. In Nov 1975, DET hit 70F+ 5 times (while DTW only hit it 3 times), but this November DET will only end up hitting 70F+ 3 times.

 

Detroit officially hit 69F+ 5 times in Nov in 1964, 1975, & 1990. DET hit that number a crazy 7 times in 1975.

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Interesting note about the November 70F+ days. If DTW hits 70F+ tomorrow, it will be 4 days this month, which would be the most officially for Detroit on record in November (right now 7 years have had 3 days). Its all about where the official station is. In Nov 1975, DET hit 70F+ 5 times (while DTW only hit it 3 times), but this November DET will only end up hitting 70F+ 3 times.

 

Detroit officially hit 69F+ 5 times in Nov in 1964, 1975, & 1990. DET hit that number a crazy 7 times in 1975.

 

Out of curiosity, do you happen to know when they stopped doing in-person observations at DET and started using an ASOS?

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00z GFS has another big storm just after mid month. Nice to see the action even if it's too warm.

I mean, I'll take warm and wedges over cold and snow.. Any day of the week. Wonder if we'll get any moisture return with any of the upcoming storms. Wish we just had a large ridge that would be able to build for days, and once the event finally came, we'd have semi-decent lapse rates.

Edit: EURO also has a bigger storm. Slower, but big. Bring it on.

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Pretty remarkable.

 

Was 64 at my place last night at 11pm. Outside in shorts and a t-shirt

 

 

Although this 4 day 70 degree streak will be the least impressive of the group.  The others had at least one day in the mid 70s, sometimes multiple days, with even upper 70s in 1978.

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