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November 2015 Discussion


IWXwx

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Flint hit 80.  Not sure about YIP.

So Flint set a all-time monthly record today, and Detroit and Saginaw set daily record highs. Rare to see all three major spots tie or break daily records in the same day, and we just did it two days in a row (Saginaw only tied their record high yesterday)

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Current and forecast temp anomalies are essentially canonical el Nino winter.  Maybe not "canonical November", if there is such a thing, but definitely canonical winter.  I suppose we are just ahead of pace.

But it's not winter. This current pattern is very Nina like for this time of year. The warm September also wasn't very strong Nino like. This means nothing about the Winter ahead but I don't know how anyone can say this is a typical strong Nino pattern for early November. I read an article a few days ago that blamed this pattern on El Nino when in reality this isn't Nino like at all for this time of year.

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But it's not winter. This current pattern is very Nina like for this time of year. The warm September also wasn't very strong Nino like. This means nothing about the Winter ahead but I don't know how anyone can say this is a typical strong Nino pattern for early November. I read an article a few days ago that blamed this pattern on El Nino when in reality this isn't Nino like at all for this time of year.

 

It's almost winter ;)

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But it's not winter. This current pattern is very Nina like for this time of year. The warm September also wasn't very strong Nino like. This means nothing about the Winter ahead but I don't know how anyone can say this is a typical strong Nino pattern for early November. I read an article a few days ago that blamed this pattern on El Nino when in reality this isn't Nino like at all for this time of year.

 

I've seen a lot of the talk about "cold el Nino Novembers" too.  I don't agree that if an el Nino is in firm control with no negative interference that November won't look just like December.  There have been cold and warm el Nino Novembers and I am not a fan of statistics unless it's absolutely necessary.  When the pattern looks like an el Nino and quacks like an el Nino, I couldn't care less if it's early November or not.  We're pretty locked in to a stable el Nino pattern in North America right now.  I would agree that it's rare in the sense that canonical anomalies don't usually show up this early.

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