IWXwx Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Looks like a nice fall system could be ramping up mid week across the Lakes. Definitely aided by the remnants of "Patricia". Breezy, wet, and raw all words I think will become synonymous going forward Not necessarily an OCT topic, but the first few days of NOV look interesting in the region based on tonight's EURO and GFS. Fantasyland GFS with another strong hurricane nailing the Baha California. Now the question is.... what will actually verify? Still over a week away, but maybe a new OP will kick us into high gear activity-wise. Yep, interesting is the word at this point, but both models showing another system blowing through around the 1st of the month. I like seeing some agreement from this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Will we go against the odds for strong Ninos and have another warmer than average fall month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDanny Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Yeah...with 60+ DPs rolling on up into LOT...not too shabby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 image.pngimage.gif Kinda surprised me that the EURO and GFS partially agreed on this system. So far this year, they seemed to have gone had 2 totally different outcomes. Will be nice to get a good storm before the fall ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 I know it is day 9-10 on the Euro but there is a pretty good consensus that there will be 3 troughs coming out between now and then. The third trough at day 10 will have ample moisture with it if the model projections are correct. The 00z Euro has 60+ degree dew points over a huge area, from the Plains all the way north to the Twin Cities and as far east as Ohio with a strong trough pulling out of the Rockies. The GFS though more positively tilted with the trough does have the high dew points streaming north as well. Preceding these troughs the flow will be straight out of the Gulf, which is leading to the over the top PWATs with each system, eventually with the third trough the flow originates in the Caribbean bringing even deeper moisture northward. Bottom line with these strong troughs pressing into a very moist environment, I think this region's lack of severe weather might have a chance to catch up in the next 10 to 15 days, Oddly enough the pattern has a very La Nina look to it with the deep troughs in the west diving in and ejecting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDanny Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 I know it is day 9-10 on the Euro but there is a pretty good consensus that there will be 3 troughs coming out between now and then. The third trough at day 10 will have ample moisture with it if the model projections are correct. The 00z Euro has 60+ degree dew points over a huge area, from the Plains all the way north to the Twin Cities and as far east as Ohio with a strong trough pulling out of the Rockies. The GFS though more positively tilted with the trough does have the high dew points streaming north as well. Preceding these troughs the flow will be straight out of the Gulf, which is leading to the over the top PWATs with each system, eventually with the third trough the flow originates in the Caribbean bringing even deeper moisture northward. Bottom line with these strong troughs pressing into a very moist environment, I think this region's lack of severe weather might have a chance to catch up in the next 10 to 15 days, Oddly enough the pattern has a very La Nina look to it with the deep troughs in the west diving in and ejecting out. Agreed completely. As mentioned above I have been eyeing the 4th through 6th for several runs now, but anywhere between now and the end of the period has piqued my interest. Bring on the high shear/low CAPE forced line of showers with damaging winds already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDanny Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Spring? Is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 about time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 image.jpeg Spring? Is that you? 10 days out but that SE ridge is wild especially for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 hopefully a sign of good things to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 hopefully a sign of good things to come If we managed a pattern like that into the winter, it would be a wild ride and everyone's seasonal forecast would bust very hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Bring on the snow? Please.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 If we managed a pattern like that into the winter, it would be a wild ride and everyone's seasonal forecast would bust very hard. I'm all in for that pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Bring on the snow? Please.... Haha, nah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Don't really care what the weather is like until Dec 1st. I'll probably have better sales with a warm November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 If we managed a pattern like that into the winter, it would be a wild ride and everyone's seasonal forecast would bust very hard.What would bust very hard. Stormy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 What would bust very hard. Stormy? Stormy for here instead of the east coast, the upcoming pattern is cutter city. Would remind me a bit of 07-08 which featured pretty much everything all winter. Not saying that would happen just how the forthcoming pattern looks. If we can get the MJO to die in phase 3/4 it would lock in the active pattern for a bit though which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 missed out on the exotic phase/bomb but we'll still see a rather classic late fall rain event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 #Wishcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 If we managed a pattern like that into the winter, it would be a wild ride and everyone's seasonal forecast would bust very hard. Go back and look at November 1982. Looks like the upcoming pattern. Not saying we will continue with the same progression of course. I do feel like these calls of a dry winter for the Lakes area have a risk of busting. Greatest positive precip anomalies will very likely be along the Gulf coast and possibly up the eastern seaboard, but I think there's going to be a large enough volume of storms that we will run into some of them and make a really dry winter unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Go back and look at November 1982. Looks like the upcoming pattern. Not saying we will continue with the same progression of course. I do feel like these calls of a dry winter for the Lakes area have a risk of busting. Greatest positive precip anomalies will very likely be along the Gulf coast and possibly up the eastern seaboard, but I think there's going to be a large enough volume of storms that we will run into some of them and make a really dry winter unlikely. The interesting thing Nov 1982 had 5.68" of rain in Detroit so needless to day it was an active pattern that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Stormy for here instead of the east coast, the upcoming pattern is cutter city. Would remind me a bit of 07-08 which featured pretty much everything all winter. Not saying that would happen just how the forthcoming pattern looks. If we can get the MJO to die in phase 3/4 it would lock in the active pattern for a bit though which is good. Yeah winter 2007-08 was probably the king for overall storminess. Id take it again in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 If we managed a pattern like that into the winter, it would be a wild ride and everyone's seasonal forecast would bust very hard. You did say, a gradient pattern could set up across the sub forum. That's one way of doing it. It seems like when it is a dry winter in this area, it is because cold overwhelms the pattern (i.e. 2002-2003 - at least back this far west). Hoping for a November that is active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 The 00z Euro last night had a "run of the mill" 597 dm ridge at h5 over the southeast early to mid next week, and the 12z Euro had a still impressive 594 ridge over/just off the southeast coast with 580+ heights up to northern IL. 12z EPS is very similar, which is notable considering it's an ensemble mean, and with a deep trough digging into the southwest, certainly a warm and active look for the first week of November. With the exception of 11/17/13, a warm and active November will be a big change from the previous 2 Novembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Just gonna leave this here. Nice SFC winds suckin' in all 65 points of the dew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 The 00z Euro last night had a "run of the mill" 597 dm ridge at h5 over the southeast early to mid next week, and the 12z Euro had a still impressive 594 ridge over/just off the southeast coast with 580+ heights up to northern IL. 12z EPS is very similar, which is notable considering it's an ensemble mean, and with a deep trough digging into the southwest, certainly a warm and active look for the first week of November. With the exception of 11/17/13, a warm and active November will be a big change from the previous 2 Novembers. November 2013 was funny...it was cold right before that outbreak on the 17th and then got cold again right after. Perfect example of how you can't let your guard down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDanny Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 November 2013 was funny...it was cold right before that outbreak on the 17th and then got cold again right after. Perfect example of how you can't let your guard down. Weather porn. Anamolously strong system doing a 180 on the weather pattern. It snowed 36-48 hours before tornadoes. One of my all time favorites to have forecasted and experience. (Human impact aside) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Will we go against the odds for strong Ninos and have another warmer than average fall month? Wouldn't that be something...And it looks good for that too right now. Kinda flies in the face of the folks going with 97-98 repeat this winter! With the SOI coming up a lot off its base state, there sure is plenty of support for the ensembles showing the mega ridge coming back to start the month off on a nice warm note. Agree with you guys on the active pattern finally starting up....Emphasis on FINALLY. I'm ready for some fun weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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