jburns Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Thanks, Burns. That was fast. Why do they use prop planes for hurricane hunting? Something with the physics of jet propulsion that work well in hurricanes? Here's a take on it. The aircraft of the NOAA Hurricane Hunters are refitted P-3 Orion aircraft, though there are a few other aircraft in the NOAA fleet used for storm chasing. But it is the P-3's that fly low through the worst a hurricane can dish out. The P-3 is a 1970’s era design that was more often used in the cold war by the US Navy to hunt Russian submarines. These are tough, reliable aircraft designed to take the pounding of constant long distance patrols over open ocean.A propeller driven aircraft is both slower and more fuel efficient than a comparable jet aircraft. Fuel efficient not in that it will get someplace with less fuel, but can stay in the air longer, something aircraft designers call endurance. With a slower aircraft you get better data on the storm, your instruments spend more time in the storm and have to deal with less wake and turbulence from the aircraft. With better endurance you can stay in the storm longer instead of just zooming through at jet aircraft speeds, this lets you get more and better data. Propeller aircraft are the choice for long distance oceanic patrols, both in the P-3 Orion and the Russian Bear. Another issue is FOD. FOD stands for Foreign Object Damage. Basically when a jet engine eats something it really shouldn’t ingest. This includes the hail often found in hurricanes and thunderstorms, not at all good for jet engines but much less likely to damage a propeller aircraft. Damage to the vanes of a jet engines rotors can be very serious, possibly destroying the engine. Not a pretty picture, dangerous at any time, possibly fatal if you lose an engine in the middle of a hurricane. I have seen a jet engine ’shell out’, complete disintegration of the rotors all across a runway on takeoff. Nobody was hurt as the jet fighter in question managed to abort the takeoff, but it made a real mess with little metal bits of turbine all over the runway. I was part of a line of people walking the runway picking it all up. Else the next jet to land or takeoff would suck up those little metal bits and damage its engine. FOD has killed, FOD on the runway was responsible for the crash of the Concorde at Paris that killed everyone aboard, passenger and crew. Just the plane for the job. I would have no issue flying in one of those aircraft into the eye, as long as it was an experienced NOAA crew at the controls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Saw on the main board that there doesn't seem to be any type of mandatory evacuation going on down there in Mexico. Someone posted this from twitter showing a note the guests got at a hotel down there. https://twitter.com/TelemundoNews/status/657552310051037184 It is hard to believe that hotel is basically telling its guests to shelter in place. I'd guess, despite the warnings, they have no real idea of what is bearing down on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 New definition of rapid intensification. Patricia rapidly organized and intensified from Wednesday night through early Friday. Maximum sustained winds with the storm increased 115 mph in a 24-hour window from 85 mph at 4 a.m. CDT Thursday to 200 mph at 4 a.m. CDT Friday. During that same time, the minimum central pressure of Patricia also decreased 100 millibars, from 980 millibars to 880 millibars. This places Patricia among the most rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones ever witnessed anywhere in the world since the advent of modern meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Does anyone know how strong Patricia was forecast to be at landfall a couple days ago ? It seems like its very hard to forecast intensity of a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 New definition of rapid intensification. Patricia rapidly organized and intensified from Wednesday night through early Friday. Maximum sustained winds with the storm increased 115 mph in a 24-hour window from 85 mph at 4 a.m. CDT Thursday to 200 mph at 4 a.m. CDT Friday. During that same time, the minimum central pressure of Patricia also decreased 100 millibars, from 980 millibars to 880 millibars. This places Patricia among the most rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones ever witnessed anywhere in the world since the advent of modern meteorology. Wow, that is way crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I just checked out Josh's FB page and he's chasing this one. Not that I thought he wouldn't be. But man, he has some balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Patricia done blown up. Can't imagine having sustained winds like that of a EF5 tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Here's a take on it. ...Just the plane for the job. I would have no issue flying in one of those aircraft into the eye, as long as it was an experienced NOAA crew at the controls. Wow! Great read and explanation. Thanks so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I just checked out Josh's FB page and he's chasing this one. Not that I thought he wouldn't be. But man, he has some balls. Did you see his video from Hiyan Typhoon in the Philippines? That was incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Looks like Patricia has weakened. Winds down to 190 mph. Hopefully it will keep weakening so the impacts won't be quite as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Did you see his video from Hiyan Typhoon in the Philippines? That was incredible. Yeah, amazing stuff! He was on the Weather Channel earlier. I give it to him, I don't think I could do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Looks like Patricia has weakened. Winds down to 190 mph. Hopefully it will keep weakening so the impacts won't be quite as bad. If I stood you out in it I doubt you could tell the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 If I stood you out in it I doubt you could tell the difference. true. But it may weaken even more before landfall. Pressure is up to 900 mb which is a significant increase in pressure. Maybe it could weaken to 140-150 mph before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Question, Could the ULL over Texas help strengthen the Hurricane, kind of like the ULL that flooded South Carolina and Joaquin? Both Became very strong canes and both have interaction with an ULL (Texas already has gotten 10 inches in Dallas) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 true. But it may weaken even more before landfall. Pressure is up to 900 mb which is a significant increase in pressure. Maybe it could weaken to 140-150 mph before landfall. Maybe even more but its really already there so its kinda run out of time.....the lack of a well defined eyewall will mean the stronger winds aloft wont mix down as well....the downside is there are 1000 ft high hills within 10 miles of the coast so they don't have too.....so it could be there are "only" cat 4 type winds in a small area north and east of the center....versus 200+ that were possible 3-4 hrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Looks like this was the real deal weakening or not. The Weather Channel @weatherchannel 2h2 hours agoView translation A station near Cuixmala, Mexico (landfall point) reported 185 mph winds, gusts to 211 mph before losing data. (Estación de Biología Chamela) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Looks like this was the real deal weakening or not. The Weather Channel @weatherchannel 2h2 hours agoView translation A station near Cuixmala, Mexico (landfall point) reported 185 mph winds, gusts to 211 mph before losing data. (Estación de Biología Chamela) "Lost data" also known as the wind ripped the freaking instruments off the wall/roof more than likely. 140-150 will tear a roof off. 200 will take a wood frame house down the foundation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Data for that report in Mexico.... http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/station_total.cgi?stn=CCXJ1&unit=0 http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=CCXJ1&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL the data looks a little questionable the 210 mph gust happened well before the peak sustained wind happened...basically it was sustained 89 gusting to 210 which I guess isn't impossible and it appears it did not capture gust during the peak of the storm.....it was also at 300 ft elevation which doesn't really matter since so it all the people around there so I imagine there where places that saw some of if not the highest winds from a TC ever ( or at least rivaling Tracy ) but it might not be documented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Wow, if you want to see the effect of mountains on a tropical cyclone. It ripped it to shreds. Hope its not to bad down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 I'm not sure if I'm more amazed at how fast Patricia strengthened or how fast she weakened. Has a storm ever went from 200mph to 35 mph as fast as Patricia did ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 I'm not sure if I'm more amazed at how fast Patricia strengthened or how fast she weakened. Has a storm ever went from 200mph to 35 mph as fast as Patricia did ? Combination of high mountains and dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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