Geos Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Yeah that definitely looks high. 0z is just about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 As we approach the event, the models have increased the rainfall across eastern Iowa into the 1-1.5" range as the combination of moisture from the south and forcing from the digging plains trough maxes out over this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 As we approach the event, the models have increased the rainfall across eastern Iowa into the 1-1.5" range as the combination of moisture from the south and forcing from the digging plains trough maxes out over this area. Yeah looks to be a decent soaking for pretty much the entire sub. Looking forward to a steady all day/evening rain. Looks like the rain will be leaving KC right around the time the world series starts tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Much needed widespread 1"+ soaker for the sub, like cyclone said will be nice to have a steady rain tomorrow, changing things up from the past month of mild weather. Looks like a warm start to the beginning of November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Wednesday night looks on the mini brutal side locally...upper 30s temp.... 20+ mph winds ... and some showeres working in and out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Typhoon winds with this storm really gonna do a job on the remaining leaves. Temp profiles definitely support a changeover to snow or at least a mix around here, but not sure surface temps are going to allow too many flakes to reach the ground. Regardless, something to track and a signal that winter is closing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 NAM has backed off (somewhat) on the precip accumulation (although the SREF plumes have averaged steadily higher) since yesterday but man, look at the LLJ on this system. Broad area of 50kt+ 850mb winds and numerous 80kt barbs showing up. Not sure how well these winds will mix down being in the warm sector, but some embedded thunderstorms could yield some 50-60mph gusts I'd imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 0z NAM rainfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Definite trend in the NAM the last several runs having the upper level low further south which leads to the wraparound precip/snow closer to our area...The fcst sounding below is for south of Madison, WI for overnight Wednesday into Thursday, closer to the IL/WI border. This run verbatim produces snow and accumulating snow across a good chunk of WI. Whether we see our first flakes or not, bombing lows and these big systems are fascinating to watch. Before this really gets going, looks like a pretty good soaking rain tomorrow and tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Decent shot a the first flakes of the season for areas near /north of I-80, and around here Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDanny Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 I just typed up my forecast discussion and noted the same snow potential possibly seeping into far Northern Illinois. That would really depress me if I wasn't wishcasting the next car on the storm train track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Models have slowed the northward progression of rain shield somewhat on the new 00z runs. Would delay onset by 2-4hrs compared to previous runs. That also delays the rain pushing out of KC tomorrow evening, so now I'm wondering if the game there could get significantly delayed or totally rained out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Wednesday night looks on the mini brutal side locally...upper 30s temp.... 20+ mph winds ... and some showeres working in and out I say bring it. It's a change from the rest of the month, which has been pretty dull. NAM inching the rain in a bit sooner by the looks of it. Downpours should be really decent with a moisture transport like this. If snow flies here on Wednesday night, I'll be sure to report it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 The airmass does cool down enough late Weds night/early Thursday to be supportive of snow, though current model runs keep moisture too limited for anything other than maybe spotty flurries in northern IL based off forecast soundings. That could change, as per trends mentioned by Tsnow, but as of now, looking better for more than flurries in Wisconsin. If we don't get our first flakes Weds night, might be quite a while til the next shot at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 27, 2015 Author Share Posted October 27, 2015 Not terribly impressed with the wind fields but it will be windy enough I guess. Could be enough for advisories in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Looks like some heavy rain, wind, and even a chance of some lake effect rain/snow. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITHIN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SETUP MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN. LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN INPLACE FOR THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUETHURSDAY EAST OF THE LAKES... WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOL ENOUGHOVERNIGHT TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OFTHE TUG/SOUTHERN TIER IN LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. HAVE INCLUDED RAIN/SNOW WORDING... BUT CHANCES ARE THATDYNAMICAL COOLING IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS WOULD FORCE THE P-TYPE OVERTO ALL SNOW BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 It's something....finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Days like today make my decision to take a job that is working outside 90% of the time, rather questionable. Hopefully the heavier stuff holds off until evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Thinking rainfall warnings go up later this evening if the RGEM continues to show amounts that are nearly double what the globals show at the moment. Good chance the high res models are onto something wrt mesoscale banding so amounts somewhere between the more bearish globals and more aggressive NAM/RGEM/HRDPS seem reasonable. The flood threat is definitely there as it looks like the highest QPF will be right over the GTA with Lehs from the easterly wind and a local frontogenesis maxima. Current QPF summary around YYZ(amounts are in mm and approximate) Euro ENS: 35-40mm Euro OP: 45mm GFS: 35-40mm UKMET: 40mm NAM: 55mm RGEM: 65-70mm NAM4km: 60mm HRDPS: 50mm+(run not finished) I am going with a range of 35-55mm with local amounts to 90mm. All falls in ~15hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Awesome weather. Love rainy late October days. Although it does stink to have spoiled the driest October record, it's nice to have a change of pace from the mild boring weather the past month. Congrats to those who do get a back end flurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Odd seeing rain on the radar moving almost due north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Picked up 0.25" so far. Even when it's not raining there's a heavy drizzle in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 I just took one look at radar, and shed a single tear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 "New snow accumulation less than a half inch" tomorrow night. It's not much, but man I love seeing those words in the grids. Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Already over an inch here, so I may end up with 1.5-2.0". There have not been any heavy downpours. It's just consistent 0.10-0.15" per hour rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Finally raining at a steady pace now. Was really spotty up until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 It's looking like it could get intense tomorrow. Hopefully the subway doesn't flood (like it did in 2013). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 It's looking like it could get intense tomorrow. Hopefully the subway doesn't flood (like it did in 2013). Not to worry. No where near that level of precip expected. 2013 was 130 mm in a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Pretty good rain falling now as the heavier bands are now moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Pretty good rain falling now as the heavier bands are now moving in. You could actually get a few boomers down your way, especially towards morning and tomorrow. Might even hear a clap or two here. Moderate rain falling here too. Drought cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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