HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 18Z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 18Z GFS: Should have stopped at hour 132 for this storm. Your map includes another system at the beginning of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 At this point, I would almost rather this system cut NE to lock in the driest October on record, because why not? We've made 24 days, what's another week? Oh well, will be nice to have something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 0Z GFS bumped up totals of Rain, amount of one storm is equal to the TWO on the 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDanny Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 6z GFS with a nice deepening low across the Great Lakes Wednesday. Picked up some of the energy from "Patricia" and is sure to cause hydro issues across the Ohio Valley. Who is ready for a windy, raw, fall system a few days before Halloween? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDanny Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Euro & GFS want to advertise something a few days after Halloween too. Anything is better than the nothing I have been mired in lately! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 The Euro is consistently taking a blob of 1" rain up across eastern Iowa Tuesday/Wednesday while the GFS has been veering more of it off to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Euro & GFS want to advertise something a few days after Halloween too. Anything is better than the nothing I have been mired in lately! Probably not worth chasing, but there is a non-zero chance of severe with low topped convection just to the northeast of my neck of the woods late this afternoon with the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Very interesting and complex phasing of numerous vorts on the models with this thing. Probably gonna be a day or two for the models to sort it out. The Euro brings down a strong vort out of southern Canada into Minnesota Wednesday afternoon, while the GFS 6z) waits until after 12z Thursday to bring it down, and further east. The result is the Euro is quite a bit further west, and also quite a bit deeper with the cyclogenesis. The Euro bombs the surface low from 1000mb in Iowa to 975mb 24hrs later northeast of Superior. That would probably make for a potential warning criteria wind event for much of Michigan, and surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 24, 2015 Author Share Posted October 24, 2015 Very interesting and complex phasing of numerous vorts on the models with this thing. Probably gonna be a day or two for the models to sort it out. The Euro brings down a strong vort out of southern Canada into Minnesota Wednesday afternoon, while the GFS 6z) waits until after 12z Thursday to bring it down, and further east. The result is the Euro is quite a bit further west, and also quite a bit deeper with the cyclogenesis. The Euro bombs the surface low from 1000mb in Iowa to 975mb 24hrs later northeast of Superior. That would probably make for a potential warning criteria wind event for much of Michigan, and surrounding areas. 12z GGEM seems similar to the 00z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 24, 2015 Author Share Posted October 24, 2015 I'm in my look at every model mode so with that in mind, the NAVGEM really bombs it quickly. Too bad it's not reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Looks like the 0z and 6z GFS try to bring a rain/snow mix on the backside here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Seems like a pretty legitimate flash flood threat for Southern Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area with this system (12Z NAM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Calm before the storm...looking REALLY quiet across the nation today before the impending nasty weather this week. http://www.weather.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2015 Author Share Posted October 25, 2015 I wish we could get that northern stream wave to dig more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 I wish we could get that northern stream wave to dig more. Yeah it would definitely make it more interesting. I'm not a fan of these storms that rocket northeast out of the US as it bombs. Looks like a quick shot of rain followed by a dry and windy dry slot for most of us. Maybe some measurable snow way up north in the UP/northern lower MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 GFS throwing in a little snow out by DLL. Not sure if that's going to work out with temps in the mid to upper 30s. Even up by Waukesha and Fond du Lac later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Yeah it would definitely make it more interesting. I'm not a fan of these storms that rocket northeast out of the US as it bombs. Looks like a quick shot of rain followed by a dry and windy dry slot for most of us. Maybe some measurable snow way up north in the UP/northern lower MI. Yeah, bo, slow poke, et al. should see some accumulations. It's too early for me to be worried about snow, but I'm interested in seeing how deep it will bomb and how much moisture it can drag up with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Still no real snow for this system or the next rainmaker on the 12Z GFS, First real snowfall wont be until mid November I reckon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 I think the disappointing aspect of this system is that it could have been a real monster if the northern vort was quicker, further southwest, and had more cold air to work with. The combination of that combined with a tropical low coming straight up the MS valley could have really blown up something special given the time of the year. I really don't think we were too far away from seeing something really special with this storm system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 I think the disappointing aspect of this system is that it could have been a real monster if the northern vort was quicker, further southwest, and had more cold air to work with. The combination of that combined with a tropical low coming straight up the MS valley could have really blown up something special given the time of the year. I really don't think we were too far away from seeing something really special with this storm system. Sort of like Hurricane Sandy from a couple years ago? GRR NWS has put the possibility of some snow showers for our area in the forecast for Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 Nice discussion from KBUF. Definitely looks like the eastern half of the sub has the most fun with this one. 238FXUS61 KBUF 251738AFDBUFAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY138 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY SOAKING RAIN EVENTACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAYWEDNESDAY. THIS EVENT EVOLVES OUT A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM THATINCLUDES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY ALONG THE TEXAS GULFSHORE (WHICH INCLUDES REMNANT MOISTURE FROM FORMER PATRICA) AND APAIR OF SHARP WAVES THAT CARVE OUT A BROAD TROUGH FROM THE PLAINSSTATES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS THROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THEMIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...THE WAVE ALONG THE GULF AND ASSOCIATEDTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE ANDOHIO VALLEY.AS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PHASE...A RAPIDLYDEEPENING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS FROM NEAR CHICAGO ACROSS THE UPPERGREAT LAKES AND TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY. FORECAST SURFACE PRESSUREFALLS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA PEAKAROUND 2-3 MB/HR ON WEDNESDAY ALLOW THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TODEEPEN FROM ABOUT 1000 MB NEAR CHICAGO WEDNESDAY MORNING TO 980 MBOR LESS NEAR THE HUDSON BAY BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE STRONGPRESSURE FALLS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DEVELOP A VERYIMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL JET THAT LIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ONWEDNESDAY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT OF THIS LLJPEAKING AT 70 TO 80 KNOTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAYAFTERNOON! NAEFS ENSEMBLES ARE PICKING UP ON THIS SIGNAL AS WELL/WITH A MEAN LLJ OF 60+ KNOTS / WHICH EVEN AT THAT MAGNITUDE ISALREADY REACHING MAX VALUES IN THE 1979-2009 CLIMATOLOGY FOR THISTIME OF YEAR. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PWVALUES PUSHING CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS IN THE 97TH PERCENTILEFOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALONG THIS DEVELOPING WARM FRONT LIFTINGNORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY /WITH AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE LLJ FEEDING APLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE FRONT/ WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OFMODERATE TO HEAVY SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN RAINFALL LIFTING NORTHWARDACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CAUSEDOWNSLOPING TO OCCUR ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS / GENESEE VALLEY/ NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH OF THE TUG HILL. THIS WILL HELP TOCAUSE A LOCAL MINIMUM IN RAINFALL TOTALS...HOWEVER THE STRONG/DEEPSYNOPTIC FORCING WILL STILL EASILY PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD SOAKINGRAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THIS 12 TO18 PERIOD WHEN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE ISRATHER HIGH FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENINGTO AVERAGE AN INCH...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. WILLCONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING TO COVER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME BLUSTERY TO WINDY AT TIMES ONWEDNESDAY... HOWEVER THE FAR MAJORITY OF THE WIND ASSOCIATED WITHTHE VERY STRONG LLJ WILL STILL ELEVATED IN THE STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT/ WARM AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER WITH SO MUCH WIND JUST OFF THESURFACE... IT WOULDN`T TAKE MUCH TO SEE SOME GUSTS 40+ MPH DURING THEDAY WEDNESDAY / ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS. WINDS WILLCERTAINLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTOWEDNESDAY EVENING WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES WELL ALIGNED UPLAKE ERIE/ONTARIO AND COLD AIR ADVECTION / SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE KICKSIN. WINDS COULD POSSIBLY INCREASE TO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THENIAGARA FRONTIER / SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPSGALE LEVELS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.WHILE THE LIFT FROM THE COUPLED JET WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH EASTDURING THE COURSE OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PASSING OF ASTRENGTHENING SFC COLD FRONT WILL ADD MORE THAN ENOUGH FORCING TOKEEP THE BULK OF THE RAIN IN PLACE. THE RAIN WILL START TO TAPER OFFAND BECOME MORE SHOWERY FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE WAKE OF THEFRONT OVERNIGHT.IT WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSETTLED ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY AS THEMODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS WILL GIVE WAY TO BLUSTERY (IF NOT WINDY) ANDSHOWERY CONDITIONS. THE COMBINATION OF THE STILL DEEPENING SFC LOWNEAR JAMES BAY AND A VERY ROBUST SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE LOWERGREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES FOR OUR FORECASTAREA...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WHERE LOCALIZED FUNNELINGCOULD RESULT IN ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS...THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTEDBY A TROPOPAUSE FOLD AND 1.5 PVU POTENTIAL VORTICITY INTRUSIONINDICATIVE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF STRONGERMID LEVEL WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...STRONG COLDADVECTION WITHIN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SET UP MULTIPLE BANDSOF LAKE EFFECT RAIN. LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THESEBANDS OF SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY EAST OF THELAKES... WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOL ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO SUPPORTSOME SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG/SOUTHERNTIER IN LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE. HAVE INCLUDEDRAIN/SNOW WORDING... BUT CHANCES ARE THAT DYNAMICAL COOLING IN THEHEAVIEST BANDS WOULD FORCE THE P-TYPE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY EARLYFRIDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2015 Author Share Posted October 25, 2015 I think the disappointing aspect of this system is that it could have been a real monster if the northern vort was quicker, further southwest, and had more cold air to work with. The combination of that combined with a tropical low coming straight up the MS valley could have really blown up something special given the time of the year. I really don't think we were too far away from seeing something really special with this storm system. Totally agree. Still some time for a better trend but would need a lot to get something really special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 The NAM is really digging the nrn wave much further south now into the plains more compared to previous run. It's nice having a big system to watch again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 This is the most recent 5-day precip forecast from WPC. It shows 0.75"+ for all of MI, IN, and OH. Values are about 2.0" for Indianapolis and Toronto. Probably no flood concerns in Indiana though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDanny Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Feast or famine in these parts. 12"+ in the month of June.... I would estimate 1-2" since. Bring on the liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brohnhdon Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Looks like Ohio/Indiana could see 1 if not 2 low-topped possibly severe squall lines Wednesday into Wednesday night. The WPC has been hinting that the models have been underestimating the potential eventual strength of this system and the most recent NAM seems to reflect that. CIPS has been showing some big-time analogs recently but only on kinematics, the thermo is fairly lacking. Hopefully the screaming LLJ can make up for that. -Brandon P.S. Does anybody know of an online resource that displays the SHERB parameter? I would think the SPC would have it on their mesoanalysis page but I guess not...maybe I'll shoot them an email. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 26, 2015 Author Share Posted October 26, 2015 00z NAM drops the surface low about 25 mb in 21 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Finally, a system to track. Looks like Tuesday into Wednesday could be interesting, in one form or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 The 18z NAM had precipitable water values in northern IL near record values for late October on Tuesday night based off the SPC sounding climo page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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