Hoosier Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Been a long time since we've had a storm thread, but I guess that's to be expected when it's been so boring. Anyway, looking like a decent system may finally be on the way. Hurricane Patricia will make landfall in Mexico sometime tomorrow and the remnants should eventually head toward the Gulf coast. The remnants look to meander somewhere around Texas/Louisiana or just offshore until an incoming trough may interact and bring the system into our region. Exactly how this interaction plays out remains to be seen but in any case, looks like a decent system on tap for the region with heavy rain possible for some areas with some wind potential if we get a deep enough system. For those looking for any sort of severe weather threat out of this, the modeled interaction with Patricia does not help as it leads to weak lapse rates aloft. But there's time to watch this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Don't mind missing out on severe as long as we get good rain out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 possible rain changing to snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 OK, here we go: Projected rainfall's could cause a marginal flood threat across the area, especially Southern Indiana/Ohio, not the rainfall is relatively fast according to the 18Z GFS. Also has some not too shabby winds: The real beauty is: The GFS shows the system weakening over the South, and restrengthening over Lake Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 I'm fine with anything at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbs Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Many leaves will fall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 22, 2015 Author Share Posted October 22, 2015 possible rain changing to snow here. There's a couple of 18z GFS ensembles that try to get cold enough to mix or flip to snow at the end, and I'm not just talking about your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Anyone see the tropical system toward the end of the month on the fantasy land 6z GFS? Makes landfall in south TX and then moves toward us. Would be pretty late in the season to get a landfalling system that far west so that combined with the long range = low chance of it happening I saw that as well. Will be interested to see how that evolves. Especially with that trough progged to dig out of the Rockies at the same time. Kudos to the fantasy land 6z GFS for sniffing this out a week ago. It also sniffed out the northern stream trough. Also props to Ryan and Danny for bringing to light the possibilities. It will be fun to see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 23, 2015 Author Share Posted October 23, 2015 Kudos to the fantasy land 6z GFS for sniffing this out a week ago. It also sniffed out the northern stream trough. Also props to Ryan and Danny for bringing to light the possibilities. It will be fun to see how this plays out. To be honest, I stopped paying attention to it, but I think it's happening a bit differently than originally shown (initially was supposed to be development in the Gulf without EPAC involvement). But we may end up with a very similar result to what was advertised way back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 To be honest, I stopped paying attention to it, but I think it's happening a bit differently than originally shown (initially was supposed to be development in the Gulf without EPAC involvement). But we may end up with a very similar result to what was advertised way back. Yeah, I don't think that it was supposed to be a result of Typhoon remnants, but we'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 For those looking for any sort of severe weather threat out of this... Look elsewhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I've had one 2 minute rain shower, yesterday, so far this month. Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 A lot more exciting looking than it has been all month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/00/US/gfsUS_prec_precacc_186.gif Heaviest rains shifed north and east on 0Z GFS, also stronger. This solution would cause some problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 23, 2015 Author Share Posted October 23, 2015 this is turning out to be historic in its own rite. I am not a hurricane hobbyist so I don't know the thermodynamics as well as I do the Midwest weather, but one has to obviously make the connection that the Nino sst's down there are the obvious cause for the rapid explosion in the last 24 hours, right? I know this thread is for the remnants next week but thought I would post the below as it's relevant. Sorry if not. From NWS on fb: From TWCon the web: Sent from my iPhone The SSTs are above average in the area where Patricia is...and this is something that various people have been mentioning in regards to this upcoming winter. Not only are the ENSO regions boiling, but areas outside of the ENSO regions are also running warmer than average. You need basically everything to go right to get a storm like this but the anomalously warm SSTs are likely giving it an extra boost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 The storm is stupidly intense.. 200mph and a 880mb?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 The storm is stupidly intense.. 200mph and a 880mb?!?!stebo's cat 5 landfall a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 06Z is stronger, more wind, more rain http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/06/US/gfsUS_prec_precacc_384.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDanny Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 To be honest, I stopped paying attention to it, but I think it's happening a bit differently than originally shown (initially was supposed to be development in the Gulf without EPAC involvement). But we may end up with a very similar result to what was advertised way back. Yeah, I don't think that it was supposed to be a result of Typhoon remnants, but we'll take it. Yeah, the models showed "something" brewing in that time frame. Can give it at least that much credit. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDanny Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=984532691606401 I think this thing is a little far from home.... (think Jupiter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDanny Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Basically what I'd expect a girl with 880 and 200 to look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 image.jpeg Basically what I'd expect a girl with 880 and 200 to look like. That storm is about to do some serious damage in Mexico, wonder what is the population size for the targeted landfall area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 That storm is about to do some serious damage in Mexico, wonder what is the population size for the targeted landfall area? it's a sparsley populated area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 it's a sparsley populated area Pretty close to Manazanilla and Puerto Vallarta, though. Both big tourist destinations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 worst winds looks pretty tight around the core for now, i think PV will be spared but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Noticed the 0z GGEM lost its 12z idea of a second low developing in the OV on the heels of the big one but the 6z GFS picked up on that idea now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 stebo's cat 5 landfall a good call. Thanks, though I didn't think it would be this high in to Cat 5, this storm has broke all the records and shocked everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 12z GFS/GGEM both look lost to me. Both initialized much weaker (GFS 984mb, GGEM 998mb) than the current 880mb. While the GGEM does track across Mexico, I noticed the GFS does not. It makes it to the Mexico coast and then turns northwest up the coast toward CA. It has another low develop off the east coast of Mexico which helps turn into our rainmaker. Much to be worked out still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 23, 2015 Author Share Posted October 23, 2015 12z GFS/GGEM both look lost to me. Both initialized much weaker (GFS 984mb, GGEM 998mb) than the current 880mb. While the GGEM does track across Mexico, I noticed the GFS does not. It makes it to the Mexico coast and then turns northeast up the coast toward CA. It has another low develop off the east coast of Mexico which helps turn into our rainmaker. Much to be worked out still. Wouldn't worry too much about the pressure...the lower res models aren't going to be able to nail it and this is a pretty small storm to begin with. I'm interested to see if the surface reflection will actually survive all the way across Mexico. Lots of hostile terrain and the relatively small size of the storm probably doesn't help but this one may have a better shot than most just because of how strong it is currently and it shouldn't stall out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 23, 2015 Author Share Posted October 23, 2015 Looks like it's down into the 870s now. Just amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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