HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 This thing is insane, it beat Wilma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 894mb drop with 25kt winds at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 15.1 miles southwest of the 978mb extrapolated pressure. Now there's a gradient. amazing storm to say the least. I'm sure it has to be close but have to wonder if it's even peaked yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 000 URPN12 KNHC 230505 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP202015 A. 23/04:46:20Z B. 16 deg 19 min N 105 deg 18 min W C. 700 mb 2182 m D. 146 kt E. 044 deg 6 nm F. 130 deg 179 kt G. 046 deg 4 nm H. 894 mb I. 12 C / 3059 m J. 28 C / 3001 m K. 11 C / NA L. CLOSED M. C7 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 0.5 nm P. AF303 0320E PATRICIA OB 10 MAX FL WIND 179 KT 046 / 4 NM 04:45:00Z CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 280 / 25 KT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 And here are the tropical floater images saved for posterity. http://i.imgur.com/G2NTMKm.gif http://i.imgur.com/rn6AUDh.gif http://i.imgur.com/3lhu8l2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I just woke up Josh with the historic readings. Needless to say it's leaving us a bit speechless as we plan for tomorrow. He and Erik are both extremely exhausted and sneaking in some sleep before getting up early in the morning and reconing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Eye is contracting...7nm diameter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 This storm holds the world record for the fastest deepening storm in a 24hr period damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Amazing! The eye continues to contract...now down to 7 nm. Anticipate an ERC prior to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 0z GFS is a -relatively- lot quicker landfall at 1-2pm and a bit east. That has implications, it's a daytime landfall and there's less time to weaken due to shear and ERC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 This storm holds the world record for the fastest deepening storm in a 24hr period damn Although technically accurate, it's possible Wilma had a lower central pressure than estimated since Recon wasn't in the storm at peak intensity. Regardless, they are right there together! A truly remarkable feat!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 It looks like the outermost closed isobar is probably 1008mb so this a ~117mb drop from the surrounding environmental pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 0z GFS is a -relatively- lot quicker landfall at 1-2pm and a bit east. That has implications, it's a daytime landfall and there's less time to weaken due to shear and ERC If that track materializes, a category-five landfall is far more probable for the exact reasoning you stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I don't have any words for this, I haven't been this floored at something in the Epac in years, if ever this much. Exceeded even my bullish expectations. Hurricane Patricia is the most powerful hurricane in the north eastern Pacific in recorded history. What was Josh's reaction to the news? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 That's a small eyewall below...may start to see the early stages of a RIC...but if the GFS and the Euro (to a degree) are right, there's only 13-15 hr left before landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 0z GFS is a -relatively- lot quicker landfall at 1-2pm and a bit east. That has implications, it's a daytime landfall and there's less time to weaken due to shear and ERC Tracking a hair left still which of course could be the typical trich wobbles with the intensity. Definitely has a good shot at coming in at a 5 though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 It looks like the outermost closed isobar is probably 1008mb so this a ~117mb drop from the surrounding environmental pressure. The outermost closed isobar has no bearing on the central pressure in the storm. ..but rather the attendant pressure-gradient; which directly effects the maximum sustained winds. Edit: I apologize if I am misreading your post, and inadvertently missing the point you are making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Tracking a hair left still which of course could be the typical trich wobbles with the intensity. Definitely has a good shot at coming in at a 5 though... Agreed, Scott. 50/50 probability at this point if it comes ashore inside 15 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 WOW HURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1230 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 The purpose of this special advisory is to update for a significant increase in the intensity of the hurricane. Reports from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that Patricia has intensified at an incredible rate since yesterday. The plane measured peak 700-mb flight level winds of 179 kt in the northeastern eyewall, and this may be an unprecedented value for a tropical cyclone. Using the 90 percent adjustment value to convert this to a surface wind speed yields an intensity estimate of 160 kt, which is tied with eastern north Pacific Hurricane Linda of 1997 for the strongest on record. A dropsonde released into the eye measured a sea-level pressure of 894 mb with 25 kt of wind. Adjusting this pressure for the surface winds (i.e. the drop did not land into the actual center of the eye) gives an estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb, which breaks the record for the lowest pressure of an east Pacific hurricane. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today due to eyewall replacements, but Patricia should maintain category 5 status through landfall this afternoon or evening. No changes are made to the track forecast from the previous advisory. This special advisory replaces the 0600 UTC intermediate advisory for Patricia. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely dangerous major hurricane this afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be completed as tropical storm conditions are beginning to affect the area. 2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing into Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0530Z 16.5N 105.3W 160 KT 185 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W 160 KT 185 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 19.7N 105.3W 160 KT 185 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/1200Z 22.5N 103.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 NHC updated to max sustained winds of 185 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 They now expect landfall at cat 5! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 take a moment to realize this...they are forecasting a cane to make landfall at 160 knots/185mph..with gusts of 195knots...ie 225mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 The outermost closed isobar has no bearing on the central pressure in the storm. ..but rather the attendant pressure-gradient; which directly effects the maximum sustained winds. Edit: I apologize if I am misreading your post, and inadvertently missing the point you are making. No worries. I wasn't making a point. Just throwing out stats. I happen to note it because one of the AMS papers regarding Wilma's RI that I read (quite coincidentally I might add) a couple days ago mentioned this metric. Unfortunately, I don't remember what Wilma's peak environmental drop was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Wow, landfall at 185mph, that is incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Wow, the NHC is calling for a 160 kt. landfalling intensity! Will not be surprised to see a category-five landfall...but will be VERY surprised if it crosses the shoreline at 160 knots. I sure hope it doesn't!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 take a moment to realize this...they are forecasting a cane to make landfall at 160 knots/185mph..with gusts of 195knots...ie 225mph. Has this ever occurred before? Andrew was at 155 at landfall and Camille 160? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Heh 24H 24/0000Z 19.7N 105.3W 160 KT 185 MPH...INLAND 48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Has this ever occurred before? Andrew was at 155 at landfall and Camille 160? Camille was 190 mph at landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 The landfall intensity is unlikely to verify as microwave data indicate a formative outer eyewall that is likely to commence an ERC over the next six hours. Combined with increasing shear and frictional effects from mountains, this factor is likely to cause faster-than-indicated weakening before landfall, regardless of exact speed and track. (Keep in mind that the NHC usually underestimates weakening as well as rapid deepening.) I would anticipate 130-135 kt (rather than 160 kt) at landfall, however, with an expanding wind field/fetch meaning a bigger storm surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 take a moment to realize this...they are forecasting a cane to make landfall at 160 knots/185mph..with gusts of 195knots...ie 225mph. Simply astonishing! In the EPAC, no less. Still suspect the shear and a probable ERC will weaken it somewhat prior to landfall. Regardless, and either way, this will likely be an unprecedented and truly historic event for SW Mexico! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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