Amped Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 145mph at 24 hrs to dissipated by 48hrs, what's the record for rapid weakening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Would love to be a fly on the wall on that flight going in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I'd expect a Special Update after the recon shows up, I wouldn't be surprised if it has hit 165-170 already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I believe a better comparitive storm would be hurricane Linda of the EPAC from 1997. It had an 81 mb 24 hour decrease in the central pressure and a 90 kt. increase in the MSW. Additionally, the 12 hour data was 54 mb and 55 knots, respectively. For Wilma, the 24 hour stats are 97 mb and 90 knots. 12 hour data was an astonishing 83 mb and 75 knots. In only a 6 hour period, hurricane Wilma's central pressure dropped a remarkable 54 mb!! I'm quoting a previous post of my own to reference that Patricia has now tied Linda's 12 hour rate of intensification...for MSW...by its increase of 55 knots (85 kt. to 140 kt.) in the past 12 hours! It is just off Linda's pace for the 12 hour reduction in its central pressure...with a 49 mb decrease over the aforementioned 12 hour span. Edit: I wouldn't be surprised if post-season analysis doesn't ultimately reflect a greater intensity increase during this most recent 12 hour period, and consequently, establishing Patricia as the new record setter in that regard. One should note that Linda's record intensity was determined based solely on Dvorak satellite estimates and it's possible it achieved a greater rate of intensification than attributed to it...but it will never be known for sure. Recon wasn't in the storm at peak intensity to provide a better estimate. Fortunately, Recon will likely be in Patricia at its peak intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Has that 150 kt, 910's look... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Would not surprise me if recon found a sub 900mb hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Dvorak T# is at 7.1 with estimated pressure at 920mb as of 03:15Z. It looks like recon is approaching the cyclone now. Perfect timing. Edit: 7.1 is the final T#, raw T# is still 8.2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 How long until recon arrives, anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Dvorak T# is at 7.1 with estimated pressure at 920mb as of 03:15Z. It looks like recon is approaching the cyclone now. Perfect timing. Talk about a dangerous ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Running a little bit too low with pressure on the early frames, but dang. Last image prior to landfall. Recon will be very interesting. If we are more solidly into category 5 range, then I think there's going to be more than a remote possibility of this actually making landfall at that intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Would not surprise me if recon found a sub 900mb hurricane Nothing between 890 and 920 would surprise me. Wind speed is probably close to 155 kt though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 How long until recon arrives, anyone know? They are in there now. They'll probably penetrate the eye within 30 minutes I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I agree it's a possibility...but the combination of the increasing wind shear beyond 12 hours, land interaction, and the prospect of an ERC all suggest to me that Patricia will not be able to retain category-five intensity until landfall...regardless of its ultimate peak intensity. We shall see. Edit: For the sake of those in harms way, I most certainly hope it weakens below category-five prior to landfall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 They are in there now. They'll probably penetrate the eye within 30 minutes I would think. or right now in fact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Thanks, guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 179kt flight level, 890.9mb extrap. Missing highest SFMR data, but got 146kt. 044400 1624N 10514W 6968 02767 9628 +101 //// 123141 148 135 004 05044430 1623N 10515W 6945 02665 9472 +108 //// 125159 166 146 013 05044500 1622N 10516W 6841 02577 9265 +128 //// 130158 179 /// /// 05044530 1621N 10516W 6861 02414 8989 +171 +151 128064 126 /// /// 09044600 1620N 10518W 7046 02154 8943 +255 +134 156022 032 045 003 03044630 1619N 10519W 7027 02147 8909 +272 +118 011010 023 044 003 00044700 1618N 10521W 6998 02237 8990 +202 +136 341080 120 046 003 03044730 1616N 10522W 7004 02492 9397 +123 //// 324156 160 /// /// 05044800 1615N 10523W 7005 02681 9550 +111 //// 320135 151 138 034 05044830 1614N 10524W 6956 02834 9682 +117 //// 320112 125 108 024 01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Yikes! That's a new record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 good lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Yep, that's what I'm seeing too. 891mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 That's crazy, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 That's a 103mb drop in 26 hour. Someone double check my numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 I guess at this point, all I can say was what was said to us before Katrina. God bless, and good luck. Those people are in my heart. Goodnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Yeah, the 10 PM CDT Wednesday pressure was 994 mb. That's the new record. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Yep, that's what I'm seeing too. 891mb. 15.1 miles southwest of the 978mb extrapolated pressure. Now there's a gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Flight level winds at 2500m came in at 206mph. If you go with a 10% reduction that would be 185 mph winds at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 That is pretty impressive, On par with Wilma's drop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 Flight level winds at 2500m came in at 206mph. If you go with a 10% reduction that would be 185 mph winds at the surface. sustained or gust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 nvm, that's a stupid question. Gust's already at 195 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 That is pretty impressive, On par with Wilma's drop... It's been at the same raw T# for about 6hrs, so all that RI was probably even faster. Edit:894mb dropsonde Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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