Cat 5 Major Hurricane Patricia

[Roger Smith]

You can see the location of the reported strongest winds on google earth. It is the biological research station located just north of Route 200 between Careyes and Chamela -- the lat-long and elevation match up. Looks like a hilltop location and from the wind directions in the western portion of the remnant eye. The lat-long are reported in decimals in the observation but if you have degrees and minutes as your google earth setting, then look at 19 deg 30 min N and 105 deg 03 min W, you'll see a clearing with several small structures and google earth pictures.

[Coach McGuirk]

Hurricane Andrew was intensifying as it hit southern Florida.

 

[Roger Smith]

I wouldn't be that hard on the first call quoted above, so far all we have is the strong possibility of about half an hour with180-210 mph winds on a hilltop, and the NHC estimate of a 920 mb landfall. What I'm waiting to hear about (from Josh maybe) is the degree of damage to coastal villages between his location and Punta Perula. I'm not aware of any credible reports about that factor and we probably won't hear much until well into Saturday daylight. What he got basically right was that the satellite presentation made it appear that a lot of the core structure was falling apart at landfall. I would accept the 920 but it may be a bit generous, who knows?

[DTWXRISK]

100%    wrong

I'd say Patricia will be more like a Charley or Hugo at landfall than a Camille or Andrew. It essentially has no inner eye wall left and shear looks to be getting to it. It doesn't take long for a Cat 5 house of cards to fall if something goes out of place. Still devastating but not what could have been.

 

 

 NO inner  eyewall left ?

 

[DTWXRISK]

 WRONG  it  was not at    not at     550pm  oct  23

if you are going  to  make  assertions that you   cant  support --at least be right  

 

LOL... Dude. It's a cat 4.

[DTWXRISK]

920  no thats wrong       it  was 910mb

 

I wouldn't be that hard on the first call quoted above, so far all we have is the strong possibility of about half an hour with180-210 mph winds on a hilltop, and the NHC estimate of a 920 mb landfall. What I'm waiting to hear about (from Josh maybe) is the degree of damage to coastal villages between his location and Punta Perula. I'm not aware of any credible reports about that factor and we probably won't hear much until well into Saturday daylight. What he got basically right was that the satellite presentation made it appear that a lot of the core structure was falling apart at landfall. I would accept the 920 but it may be a bit generous, who knows?

[DTWXRISK]

  How  anyone can look at  THAT  and say  that  at  5pm   oct 23 the i ner eye wall   was   gone

 

[nycwinter]

i guess a lot of the posters were disappointed that the storm did not hit land at 200 mph.. so they look to downplay it's strength cause it weakened before landfall...

[DTWXRISK]

 the  extreme winds     were in  very  small area  maybe 15-20 miles across

 

 

Josh didn't seem impressed.

[Roger Smith]

For me, the big take-away is that Puerto Vallarta was evacuated ahead of a predictable 50 mph tropical storm event with no set-up for storm surge or heavy rainfall locally. I suppose it was overly cautious but prudent at the 5% possible outcome, but it's going to seem a bit ridiculous to many involved. Meanwhile, as far as I have been able to determine, no authorities contacted a resort a few miles from the landfall (Las Alamandes) and whoever was there had to shelter in place. I think they should be okay but it would have been a very close call.

[DTWXRISK]

and reports   CLEARLY  show a cat 5  cane at landfall

 

agreed.  i only care what the ground reports say.  the rest is all talk.

[DTWXRISK]

   but  it did  not weaken  ---  sorry

 yes the  MSLP  went  up  from 885 to 910  but  it was  STILL a cat 5  and the data proves it

 

i guess a lot of the posters were disappointed that the storm did not hit land at 200 mph.. so they look to downplay it's strength cause it weakened before landfall...

[nycwinter]

so it wen't from a 200 mph storm to a 160-155 mph storm at landfall an did not weaken.. scratches my head...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Still a cat 5, but it weakened.

[nycwinter]

there should be a higher number for hurricanes than a cat 5.. if there was this storm be a cat 6 or even  a cat 7....

[Coach McGuirk]

so it wen't from a 200 mph storm to a 160-155 mph storm at landfall an did not weaken.. scratches my head...

You don't understand DT logic.

[SnoSki14]

Way too much downplaying for what was clearly a historic strike. Yes it weakened but so what.

The strongest winds were going to be confined to a tiny area but that doesn't mean the storm wasn't a cat 5 at landfall.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

but it did not weaken --- sorry

yes the MSLP went up from 885 to 910 but it was STILL a cat 5 and the data proves it

Your right it was a cat 5. And what people aren't realizing is the amount of water that was sent in motion when it was a 200 mph storm. The wave action might have been record breaking with little shelf. Some of the biggest waves in our life time occurred

[40/70 Benchmark]

  another an idiot  post  --   910 mb at landfall  is still a   cat 5 and the ground reports  confirm that

 

910>879

A weakened cat 5.

[Stebo]

Anyone who is or has downplayed the strike doesn't understand the magnitude of a cat 5 hurricane striking. Yeah the winds weren't 200 mph but they were still extremely strong and where it came ashore will have destruction.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Anyone who is or has downplayed the strike doesn't understand the magnitude of a cat 5 hurricane striking. Yeah the winds weren't 200 mph but they were still extremely strong and where it came ashore will have destruction.

Absolutely.

Catastrophic cat 5 that weakened before LF.

It is what it is.

 

One for the record books.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

910>879

A weakened cat 5.

There is more to it then winds at landfall come

To my neighborhood during sandy. How about Katrina? The ocean holds energy amazingly. 200 mph sustained wind put nulcear energy into the ocean

[40/70 Benchmark]

Haha it's DT. It clearly weekend some, But until they start putting lots of air deplorable wind and pressure gauges along the coast before every storm, we'll never know what the exact landfall intensity was.

I understand, but no one deserves a free pass to act like that.

 

The worst spelling, most inarticulate monday morning QB imaginable.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Gotta love it when someone who made absolutely zero posts during the event comes in afterward to rail on about how wrong everyone was.

[Yellow Evan]

Reading these posts,... smh.... this storm was far from ordinary, and all signs point to the fact this was still a Cat 5 at landfall but we'll see what Josh comes up with.

[Rjay]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2015_20E/webManager/displayGifsBy12hr_04.html

Come daylight we will probably see catastrophic damage where this very small inner core came through (see above image).

[pazzo83]

Gotta love it when someone who made absolutely zero posts during the event comes in afterward to rail on about how wrong everyone was.

 

Right?  Classic DT.

[Rick G]

A cat 5 storm is a cat 5 storm.... does anyone think winds at 200 mph vs winds at 165 mph make much difference? esp to the people on the ground...

[Sundog]

A cat 5 storm is a cat 5 storm.... does anyone think winds at 200 mph vs winds at 165 mph make much difference? esp to the people on the ground...

Yes, since increasing wind speeds are not linear in the damage they cause.

[ncforecaster89]

I think it's a fair argument/respectful debate to examine whether or not Patricia retained category-five intensity at landfall. Whether or not it did, it was still an incredibly powerful storm-which is without debate!

For the sake of argument, let's assume for a minute that it did weaken more than the official operational advisory indicates, and was rather a high-end category-four, instead (say 130 knots). As I mentioned earlier in this thread, weakening "major" hurricanes often retain an unusually high wind gust to sustained wind ratio (this was the case with Katrina well inland).

With this in mind, Patricia could very easily have hit the small area closest to the eye with anomously high wind gusts for a high-end category-four hurricane, even if it didn't maintain category-five intensity to landfall.

All that aside, the NHC "officially" had it as a 920 mb/145 kt (165 mph) category-five at landfall. Since Recon wasn't taking observations within the last hour preceding landfall, and it was no doubt rapidly weakening, we may never truly know whether or not it actually came ashore at the "official" intensity prescribed to it. That said, I'm inclined to suspect it dropped below category-five, but still impacted the narrow inner-core region with abnormally high wind gusts exceeding what would normally be expected for a storm of similar strength.

Regardless, it was still a very intense and extremely powerful hurricane...whether or not it was either a high-end category-four or a low-end category-five hurricane!

EDIT: I would be remiss if I didn't emphasize that it didn't need to produce an unusually high wind gust to sustained wind ratio...for a high-end category-four hurricane will deliver extreme winds, regardless!